Under the pressure of cost, new energy vehicles ushered in a new wave of price increases, and only 100 days have passed since the last price increase.
On March 24, SAIC-GM-Wuling announced that since March 24, 00:00, it will raise the official guidance price of its Hongguang MINIEV, NanoEV, Baojun KiWiEV and other models, ranging from 4,000 yuan to 8,000 yuan. Yesterday, Ideal Auto also announced on its official Weibo account that from April 1, 2022, the price of Ideal ONE will be raised by 10,000 yuan.
So far, mainstream new energy vehicle manufacturers have comprehensively raised the price of products. According to incomplete statistics, in the past week, 10 automakers, including BYD, Tesla, and Xiaopeng, announced that they would raise the prices of many of their new energy models on the retail end, and Weilai would cancel the subsidy of 5,400 yuan since March 31, and Euler even announced the closure of the black cat and white cat booking window.
Ideal Auto CEO Li Xiang said on his personal social account, "The increase in battery costs in the second quarter was very outrageous. At present, brands that have contracted with battery manufacturers to determine the price increase of batteries in the second quarter have basically announced price increases immediately. If there is no price increase, most of them have not yet been negotiated, and the price will generally increase immediately after waiting for the negotiation. ”
An insider of a new car-making force also revealed to the Observer Network that "the price increase of some models is mainly due to the price adjustment of upstream battery suppliers." ”
Some media quoted the relevant person in charge of new energy vehicle companies as saying that since the second half of last year, the price of power batteries in the Ningde era has increased twice. According to the battery cost of a new energy vehicle, the cost of a bicycle increased by a total of 20,000 yuan.
CATL confirmed the matter and told the observer network, "The impact of the rising price of upstream raw materials has adjusted the price of some battery products." ”
In addition to the rise in raw material prices, what are the deep-seated reasons behind the price increase of new energy vehicles, and what impact will this bring to consumers?
The price was raised by more than 30,000 at the highest
Unlike the fuel vehicles that accompany the market, the price fluctuations of new energy vehicles are more from the pressure of rising raw material prices.
Combing through the price increase information released by car companies last week, this price increase covers new car-making forces, foreign brands, independent brands and joint venture brands. On March 16, BYD adjusted the official guidance price of new energy models related to Dynasty Andugawa and Ocean Network, and many pure electric models, including Dolphin and Yuan PLUS, rose by 6,000 yuan.
At the same time, Chery Automobile issued an announcement that due to the continuous sharp rise in raw material prices, Chery New Energy Vehicle will adjust the official guidance price of new energy models related to small ants, ranging from 3,000 yuan to 6,000 yuan, which has taken effect from 00:00 on March 17. Tesla has also raised the price of model Y and Model 3 in China, of which the model Y rear-drive version rose by 15,000 yuan; the model 3 rear-wheel drive version and the high-performance version increased by 14,200 yuan and 18,000 yuan respectively.
On March 18, the new car-making forces collectively announced price increases. Xiaopeng Automobile raised the whole series, and the price increase was 12,000 yuan to 32,000 yuan. On the same day, ZeroCar announced that the C11 full range of cars will be adjusted by 20,000 yuan to 30,000 yuan.
In addition, Nezha Automobile, Zero-run Car, Geometry Automobile, WM Motor, and Euler also announced that they would raise the price of their pure electric models. A number of car companies have said in the price increase announcement that the main reason for the price adjustment is the sharp rise in raw material prices.
In the manufacture of complete vehicles, power batteries account for about 30%-40% of the total cost. Among them, cathode materials account for about 50% of the total cost of power batteries, the former is mainly composed of lithium iron phosphate, lithium hydroxide, ternary precursors and other excipients. According to business agency data, the average price of battery-grade lithium iron phosphate on March 23 was 499,900 yuan / ton, up more than 80% from the beginning of January; the average price of lithium hydroxide was 460,000 yuan / ton, up 125% from the beginning of January.
The rise in lithium prices reflects the imbalance between supply and demand. With the growth of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the demand for lithium raw materials has grown simultaneously. The mainland lithium raw material processing mainly depends on imports, China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association data show that in 2021, the mainland imported lithium raw materials occupy 65% of lithium. In November last year, CATL and Ganfeng Lithium even staged a farce of "grabbing lithium mines" in Canada.
According to the new energy subsidy policy jointly issued by the four ministries and commissions of the state, the subsidy for new energy vehicles in 2022 will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021. CCTV Finance reported that as of the end of February, a total of 20 car companies announced an increase in the price of new energy vehicles this year, involving 40 models.
The interval between the two collective price increases of new energy vehicle companies is less than 100 days, behind which is the dilemma of selling one car and losing one. "The gross profit margin of vehicle sales is very low, and the profit mainly comes from vehicle selection and customization." Insiders of the new car-making forces told the Observer Network. Taking NIO as an example, its IPO filed with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange shows that INTECH delivered a total of 66,300 vehicles in the first three quarters of 2021, with a net loss of 1.873 billion yuan, and it is estimated that NIO sold a loss of more than 30,000 yuan.
Euler Automobile CEO Dong Yudong also said in an interview, "We have done the cost sharing to the extreme, but the most critical reason for stopping orders is loss, raw material prices continue to rise, coupled with a 30% reduction in the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2022, which makes the black cat and white cat two models in a difficult situation." Now every car sold loses 10,000 yuan. ”
Selling cars does not make money, but the positive integral price of new energy returns to 2 years ago. Automakers are under pressure to produce and eventually have to pass on to consumers in the form of price increases.
The price of positive points fell below 1,000 yuan
The output of new energy credits is growing, the price is correspondingly declining, and the overall difficulty of obtaining it is rising.
Since the implementation of the "double credit" policy in 2018, the price of points has been fluctuating with the market. Shengang Securities Research Report shows that from 2018 to 2019, the double points policy was officially implemented, and some car companies sold points in order to avoid the waste of points during the transition management stage, resulting in a downward trend in the price of points, which was 300 to 500 yuan / min in 2018 and 800 to 1200 yuan / min in 2019. After 2019, trading has gradually entered the right track, points carry-over has tended to be normal, and transaction prices have steadily recovered. In 2021, the transaction price of new energy credits once rose to 2500~3000 yuan / min.
The rise in the price of new energy credits has also brought great benefits to new energy vehicle manufacturers. According to the financial report, in 2021, Ideal Auto traded a total of about 70,000 points of positive points for new energy, obtaining a revenue of more than 200 million yuan; NIO motor traded about 200,000 points of positive points for new energy in 2021, with a cumulative income of 517 million yuan. Tesla made a profit of $419 million, $593 million and $1.58 billion from 2018 to 2021 through the sale of carbon credits.
However, due to the rapid growth of sales of new energy vehicles, the price of new energy credits has fallen again. According to the data of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 2.989 million units in 2021, and the total amount of positive points in the corresponding market flow was greatly improved, and the annual new energy points reached 8.43 million points, an increase of 3 million points over the 5.42 million points in 2020, an increase of 55% year-on-year. Some middle-level people in traditional car companies told the observer network that since the beginning of this year, the price of unit new energy credits has returned to about 1,000 yuan, and even fell to 800 yuan / min in the off-season.
In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has also tightened the credit value obtained by new energy manufacturers. According to the Measures for the Parallel Management of Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Car Enterprises and New Energy Vehicle Credits revised by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, from 2021 to 2023, the assessment requirements for the credit ratio of new energy vehicles are 14%, 16% and 18%, respectively. In other words, the new energy credits of car companies can reach a certain standard in order to obtain positive new energy credits. The number of points for pure electric vehicles has also dropped from a maximum of 5 points to 3.4 points.
The change in positive points for bicycles is the most injured car manufacturers. Previously, by selling cars to obtain positive points for new energy vehicles to offset "fuel consumption points", you can also sell part of the points to make up for the loss of selling cars. The aforementioned Wuling Hongguang MINIEV has repeatedly topped the sales list of new energy vehicles. In 2020, a Wuling Hongguang MINIEV with a price of 29,800 yuan can get 2 points, and SAIC-GM-Wuling will receive a total of 440,000 positive points that year. From 2021 onwards, not a single Wuling Hongguang MINIEV can only get 0.75 points.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, told the observer network that the positive integral adjustment, subsidy decline and rising raw material prices, the biggest impact is the low-end market, especially the A00-class model micro-electric vehicle market represented by Wuling Hongguang MINIEV, the corresponding impact of about 300,000 new energy vehicles is relatively small. The low-end market pricing is low, coupled with the cost of the vehicle, and the profit space itself is small.
Combing through the price adjustment, it can be found that the car companies with large increases are Zero Run and Weima, the former raised by 20,000 yuan, the latter rose by 26,000 yuan, and the sales of such brands are all below 150,000 yuan.
Fang Yunzhou, the founder of Nezha Automobile, proposed at the two sessions that at this stage, the cost of electric vehicles is more than 30,000 higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles of the same level, and new energy vehicle companies are facing operational pressure. Without lowering the positive integral value of the bicycle, it reaches the balance of market supply and demand. At the same time, the government or entrusts the industry management department to set up a virtual trading platform or point pool to adjust the market supply and demand relationship, stabilize the transaction price, and ensure that the point price is above 2,000 yuan / point.
The price of positive integrals has not risen, but the rise in the unit price of automobile sales has spawned a business of order transfer.
Orders become wealth management products
Under the tide of price increases, prospective car owners resell orders to make a small profit, and more car dealers resell orders.
New energy vehicles are mainly order-based sales models, and the reservation is completed after paying a certain proportion of the deposit. Two waves of price increases, in the second-hand trading platform and car forum, there is no shortage of order transfer information, sellers often increase prices ranging from 3,000 yuan to 8,000 yuan, involving Tesla, Xiaopeng and other models.
A sale information of Idle Fish shows that the seller purchased a Model Y rear-drive version of the model at a price of 280,700 yuan of bare cars, and is expected to pick up the car in late March, and the seller hangs up a 5,000 yuan markup to transfer this order, showing the status as "sold".
Even if the price increase is 5,000 yuan, it is lower than the pricing of Tesla's official website in China. After the price increase on March 17, the price of the model Y rear-drive version of the naked car has reached 316,900 yuan.
At the same time, car dealers also began to resell orders. Some car dealers collect Tesla orders on idle fish, and the price ranges from 3,000 yuan to 6,000 yuan. It is reported that some car dealers have made more than 10,000 yuan by reselling orders including Tesla.
It is worth noting that Tesla stipulates that order transfers can only be made between immediate family members and requires car owners to sign a "non-resale commitment letter". Xiaopeng Automobile also told the Observer Network that Xiaopeng Automobile's product orders are all associated with the real name of the ID card, and the identity information needs to be verified before the contract before entering the delivery link, and will reserve the right to pursue the legal responsibility of the relevant parties.
There are policies on the top and countermeasures on the downstream. The transfer of orders between car owners is to transfer the vehicle to the buyer after the seller picks up the license plate of the car, similar to the process of second-hand car transaction, and the balance of the new car is paid by the buyer.
Industry insiders pointed out that the price system of new energy vehicles is not yet perfect, and scalping transactions are prone to unnecessary disputes, which have an impact on the original market order. The effective way is to guide raw material prices back to rationality, and it is expected that the price increase will be alleviated in the second half of the year.