The new energy era is always staging a magical plot.
At this time last year, the industry was still predicting how much the double integral transaction price would rise, but I did not expect that after only one year, the supply and demand of double integrals had undergone a major reversal.
Recently, the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the average fuel consumption of passenger car companies and the credits of new energy vehicles (hereinafter referred to as "double credits") in 2021. The data shows that in 2021, the fuel consumption credit and the new energy credit have both rebounded sharply.
Source: Sohu Auto
Specifically, in 2021, a total of 15.5349 million positive fuel consumption points were generated, an increase of 255.7% year-on-year, generating 6.1366 million negative fuel consumption points, down 47.6% year-on-year; in terms of new energy vehicle points, generating positive points of 6.7672 million points, an increase of 54.9%; generating negative points of 810,000 points, down 24% year-on-year.
The positive fuel consumption integral and the new energy positive integral have created nearly 22 million points, while the total of the negative fuel consumption integral and the new energy negative integral is less than 7 million points, that is to say, the overall positive integral of fuel consumption and new energy generated by mainland passenger cars in 2021 is 3.2 times that of the overall negative integral. If you look at the new energy credits alone, the supply is 8 times the demand.
This instantly makes it difficult to find a point in the first two years, and the positive points with a bullish price become difficult to sell.
The reason for the inversion of supply and demand today is because the double points policy has just been implemented in the first two years, and traditional car companies have not yet had time to react to new energy, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 will grow rapidly, while traditional car companies are also actively reducing the fuel consumption of fuel vehicles, and find some routines that accumulate positive points, making the supply of market points greatly increased, and there was a situation of oversupply.
It can be seen that in previous years, the largest demand for points was the head joint venture brand in several major domestic automobile groups, and this year, not only the negative points of the joint venture brands are decreasing, but even due to the increase in positive points obtained by the new energy business sector at the group level, the negative points of many joint venture plates have been offset, making the demand for the final purchase of points reduced.
The most typical representative is SAIC Motor Group, SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM are theoretically big producers of negative points, but due to the explosion of SAIC-GM-Wuling's Hongguang MINIEV, it directly brought 2.33 million fuel consumption points and 120,000 new energy points to the group, helping SAIC Group to obtain 1.75 million fuel consumption points and 310,000 new energy points. It can be said that the Hongguang MINIEV is simply a strategic model born for points.
GAC Group's fuel consumption points are 650,000 points, and the new energy points are 290,000 points, which is also due to the joint venture plate and the independent plate pushing hybrid products in 2021, as well as the excellent performance of the Aeon brand in the new energy vehicle market.
Although FAW, Dongfeng and BAIC still have hundreds of thousands of negative points, the number of negative points has also been greatly reduced compared with 2020.
Source: Network
At the same time, after the reversal of supply and demand, some enterprises that rely on positive points trading profits have reduced their income or even lost money.
According to relevant research reports, the price of new energy credits in 2018 was 300-500 yuan / min, in 2019 it was 800-1200 yuan / min, in 2020 it was about 1000 yuan / min, and in 2021, the transaction price of new energy credits once rose to 2500-3000 yuan / min. So much so that at that time, it was predicted that the points transaction price in 2022 might exceed 5,000 yuan / cent.
The price of new energy credits in 2022, China Automobile Data Co., Ltd. predicts that it will be about 1000-1400 yuan / min. Many people in the industry expect that the price of new energy credits in 2022 will be much lower than the above forecast price.
Demand is reduced, prices are lower, which means that new energy vehicle companies like Tesla and Wei Xiaoli, which have been able to make significant profits through positive integral transactions in the past few years, will reduce their profits in 2022. For traditional car companies, some brands that are still paying for the market may cause losses to be more serious because the decline in the transaction price of points may cause more serious losses.
According to the official account of Euler Automobile, due to the decline in subsidies and rising costs this year, each black cat and white cat have an additional loss of 7,000 yuan. It could have relied on the double point gain to make up for some of the losses, but the points transaction price was reduced from 2500 yuan / min in 2021 to 500-800 yuan / min, making Euler bicycle lose 6000-7000 yuan.
Euler brand CEO Dong Yudong also said that if the sales of new energy vehicles can reach 4.2 million or even higher in 2022, positive points will be even less valuable, and it may become 200 yuan / point.
According to the forecast of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales of new energy vehicles in China are expected to exceed 5 million in 2022, so it seems that the points transaction price fell to 200 yuan / cent may not be a delusion.
Therefore, the reality is that the negative points of traditional car companies are decreasing, the cost of purchasing positive points is no longer "flesh pain", new energy vehicle companies have reduced their profits through point transactions, and the strategic significance of the double integration policy to encourage car companies to produce new energy vehicles is gradually fading.
Previously, Wang Chuanfu, Fang Yunzhou and other industry leaders have raised concerns about this phenomenon on different occasions, and now it seems that this concern has become a reality.
It's time for the double credit policy to be adjusted. (Text/UVIS Auto Old Cannon)
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