Tramway news: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently announced the details of the double points in 2021, new energy credits in the past few years is the biggest cake that car companies can benefit from in addition to subsidies, and the situation in 2021 is not optimistic, and the price of new energy credits will shrink significantly.
Let's review the trading rules before looking at the 2021 double points situation. Double credit refers to the average fuel consumption credit (fuel consumption credit) and the new energy vehicle credit. Positive fuel consumption points can be transferred between affiliated enterprises, and the negative fuel consumption points can be used to offset the negative fuel consumption points carried forward or transferred in the previous year, or the new energy positive points generated by the enterprise can be used, or the new energy positive points can be purchased. Negative new energy credits can only be compensated for by purchasing positive new energy credits.
In the double integral management method, the only thing that can really generate economic benefits for enterprises is the positive integral of new energy.
According to the requirements, all enterprises must complete the negative points satisfaction within 90 days after the release of the double integral accounting report, and the car companies that have not completed the satisfaction and zeroing will not be able to declare new products that do not meet the standards, and will be punished accordingly.
Next, let's look at the double points situation in 2021. In 2021, the negative points of fuel consumption were 6.14 million, the positive points of fuel consumption were 15.53 million, the negative points of new energy were 810,000, and the positive points of new energy were 6.77 million. The supply of fuel consumption credits in the market as a whole is 2.5 times that of demand, and the suppliers of new energy credits are 8 times the demand.
For a single enterprise group, the negative fuel consumption points generated by a certain enterprise can be deducted by the positive fuel consumption points within the group first, and the insufficient part needs to be deducted by the new energy points within the group or purchased by other enterprises, and the new energy negative points can only be deducted by purchasing the new energy positive points generated by the automobile enterprise (whether to purchase within the group is decided by the enterprise itself).
According to the double points in 2021 announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, tramway has sorted out the double points announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and merged the enterprises of the same group in accordance with the regulations of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology for affiliated enterprises. In the case of fuel consumption points and new energy credits first circulating within the enterprise, 32 enterprises such as BAIC, FAW, BMW (import), Dongfeng, Geely, Chery, Mercedes-Benz (import), Jaguar Land Rover (import) and so on also need to purchase a total of 2.41 million positive points for new energy from the outside, and 40 enterprises such as BYD and Tesla that have no negative points for fuel consumption can trade positive energy points of 5.64 million.
Since the positive credits for new energy after 2020 can be carried forward to the next year according to the proportion of 50% under the premise of meeting the requirements, there will be more new energy credits in the whole market in 2021.
The double integral transaction also follows the market supply and demand relationship, and the double integral transaction in 2021 has obviously become a buyer's market.
Since this year's double points transaction has not yet been officially launched, the specific price of points is not known, but it can also be seen from the points transaction situation in previous years.
In September 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments jointly issued the "Measures for the Parallel Management of Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Car Enterprises and New Energy Vehicle Credits", that is, the double credit policy, which aims to replace the gradual withdrawal of purchase subsidies, when the new energy vehicle purchase subsidies are completely withdrawn, new energy enterprises can obtain benefits by selling points.
Since the implementation of the double point policy, a total of 4 point transactions have been completed. Affected by multiple factors such as compliance costs and supply and demand relationships, the transaction price of double credits has changed significantly. Among them, the average unit price in 2018 was 300 yuan / min - 500 yuan / min, 800-1200 yuan / min in 2019, and 1204 yuan / min in 2020.
In 2021, the price reached the highest point, and the sum of all the positive fuel consumption points and new energy positive points generated in that year was not enough to offset the negative points, and the supply exceeded demand, and the price naturally rose. As the financial report of Ideal Automobile shows that in the 2021 trading year, a total of about 70,000 new energy vehicle points were sold, with a revenue of 200 million yuan, equivalent to 2857 yuan per cent; Weilai's financial report showed that in the 2021 trading year, a total of about 200,000 new energy vehicle points were sold, with an income of 517 million yuan, equivalent to 2585 yuan per cent.
Judging from the points transaction price of each year and the double points of the corresponding year, the gap between the positive points and the negative points generated in 2019 is the smallest, and the average price of the points transaction is 1204 yuan / point (the points generated in 2019 are traded in 2020, and the same is true). And in 2021, the positive points generated are much more than the negative points, and the price is bound to be lower.
Why is that? The immediate cause is that there are too many positive integrals.
The first is fuel consumption points. The target for 2025 is 4.0L/100km, based on the average fuel consumption level falling to 5.0L/100km in 2020. This is also another purpose of double integration, so that car companies can increase the research and development and production of new energy vehicles, and the fuel consumption of traditional energy vehicles must be reduced.
There is a standard calculation method for fuel consumption points, but the general principle is that every year there is a target value, which is worth positive integrals above the target value, and negative integrals are generated below the target value.
The requirements for new energy credits are 10%, 12%, 14%, 16% and 18% of the new energy vehicle credits in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023.
Up to now, there are two versions of the specific calculation method of new energy vehicle credits, the first version was released in 2017 and fully implemented in 2019, and the second version was released in 2020 and implemented from 2021. The calculation logic is the same for both versions. Pure electric passenger cars are calculated according to the mileage, the plug-in and mixed vehicle integral is fixed, and the fuel cell vehicle is calculated according to the system rated power.
The change is that each vehicle can earn fewer new energy credits. In 2019, most pure electric passenger cars have a cruising range of about 400km, according to this calculation, car companies can get 5.6 points for each car produced, and the income from the sale of points is about 6742 yuan.
In 2021, most car companies produce pure electric passenger car mileage is more than 500km, according to this calculation, each car can get 3.2 points, the price of points will inevitably decrease, and the income from the sale of points will be greatly reduced.
The production and sales of new energy vehicles have also exploded, the cumulative sales of domestic new energy vehicles in 2021 are 2.989 million units, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year, and the sales of new energy vehicles in the first quarter of this year have exceeded 1 million, from the current trend, this year's annual sales of new energy vehicles are expected to hit the target of 5 million vehicles, then the corresponding will produce tens of millions of new energy points, new energy points will be even less valuable.
This year is the last year of the implementation of the purchase subsidy, and I wanted to let the double points take over the purchase subsidy, but if the price of the points is too low, it will deviate from the original intention of the policy.
For new energy vehicle companies, the sale of new energy points is too profitable, which will reduce their power to produce new energy vehicles; for traditional car companies, even if too many high fuel consumption models are produced, negative fuel consumption points are generated, and only need to purchase new energy points at a very low price to compensate for zero.
Therefore, the double point policy must be adjusted, at the end of last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a work forum with the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, and the relevant departments and bureaus of the State Administration of Market Regulation, and the First Department of Equipment Industry said that it is necessary to scientifically and reasonably set the requirements for the subsequent annual points ratio, explore the establishment of a flexible mechanism, and will start the revision of the "Integral Method" with relevant departments and bureaus.
From the perspective of the generation of double credits and trading rules, subsequent adjustments may be to reduce the supply of new energy credits by increasing the proportion of new energy credits or reducing the number of points that can be obtained by bicycles, and may also allow more enterprises to generate negative fuel consumption points by reducing the fuel consumption target value to increase the demand for new energy credits.