The two lighthouses of the new energy market are steadily guiding the development direction of this emerging industry.
One is a subsidy and one is a double credit. With the decline of subsidies and the entry of new energy into the marketization stage, the role of the double integral policy in regulating the market has become more prominent.
A typical example is that the Wuling Hongguang MINI EV is a new category model created specifically for points. In the era of high point prices, Wuling Hongguang MINI EV is the envy of all car companies, and if the price of points goes down, how will its new energy story be written?
01 The price of points has plummeted, and the winter of selling charcoal is coming
"Unfortunately", the current price of new energy credits is at a low level.
In 2021, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in China were 2.989 million units, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year, corresponding to the generation of 6.7672 million new energy positive points, an increase of 54.9% year-on-year. The negative credits of new energy totaled 81.00 million points, down 24% year-on-year.
Fuel vehicles generated a total of 15.5349 million positive fuel consumption points, an increase of 255.7% year-on-year, and generated 6.1366 million negative fuel consumption points, down 47.6% year-on-year.
This means that in 2021, the positive integral of fuel consumption and the positive integral of new energy have created nearly 22 million, while the total of negative integral of fuel consumption and negative integral of new energy is less than 7 million, a gap of nearly 3 times.
According to the double points policy, negative points can be carried forward or traded through affiliates, which further narrows the demand for negative points trading markets. From a seller's market to a buyer's market, the points trading price of the new energy market in 2021 will fall.
Dong Yudong, CEO of great wall motor Euler brand, previously said that the price of a single integral in 2021 is about 2500 yuan, but with the sales of the entire new energy vehicle market increasing by 160% in 2021, the point transaction price has been reduced to 500 to 800 yuan in early 2022.
On the market side, the new energy vehicle market in 2022 is still developing rapidly. According to the data, in the first quarter of 2022, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued the previous rapid growth momentum, with production and sales exceeding one million units, 1.293 million units and 1.257 million units respectively, an increase of 1.4 times year-on-year. At present, the market share of new energy vehicles has reached 19.3%.
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will continue to maintain rapid development in 2022, and Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and secretary general of the China Automobile Association, expects that the production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach a scale of 5 million units in 2022.
The rapid development of new energy vehicles will undoubtedly produce more and more new energy credits. Based on the pre-emptive points policy, the price of new energy credits will be reduced again.
02 Loss of Wuling, pain loss of points "protector"
For large fuel consumption points, this is naturally a good news.
For example, Changan Automobile has publicly stated that the profit of bicycles made due to double integrals in 2020 has dropped by 4,000 yuan. The loss of 4,000 yuan of bicycle profits corresponds to Changan's sales of up to 2 million yuan in 2020, which is a very terrible loss of profits.
Now that the price of integrals has fallen, it is believed that Chang'an, which has new energy shortcomings, can temporarily alleviate anxiety. However, with the Hongguang MINI EV quickly topped the new energy sales list, "crushing" Tesla and BYD's Wuling, the mood at this time must be mixed.
In 2020, with the listing and hot sales of Wuling Hongguang MINIEV, SAIC-GM-Wuling positive points rose to 440,000 points, and in 2021, SAIC-GM-Wuling accumulated 443,000 tradable points.
According to the transaction price of a single point of 2500 yuan in 2021, by selling new energy credits, Wuling can make a profit of 1.1075 billion yuan.
If there is such a generous reward for points, then Wuling's life will be quite moist. According to The Wuling Annual Report, the profit per Hongguang MINI EV is only 89 yuan. The reason why it can compress the profits of bicycles to such a terrible point is precisely because it looks at the benefits brought by the points.
Once the point price dived, Wuling's financial data would not look good. In addition, the soaring price of raw materials has also become a constraint on the development of Wuling New Energy. At the end of March, in the midst of price increases, Wuling finally issued an announcement that it would "adjust the official guidance price of its Wuling Hongguang MINIEV series models, Wuling NanoEV models, and Baojun KiWi EV models, ranging from 4,000 yuan to 8,000 yuan."
03 Million vehicles were finalized, but the dark clouds of the journey could not be dispersed
If there is no high points to support, the low-price volume exchange strategy implemented by Wuling, which claims to "build cars for the people", still work?
This is a problem that Wuling must solve to enter the next stage of development. According to Wuling's plan, it will build a million pure electric new energy platform, a million hybrid new energy platform, and five tens of billions of industries of batteries, electric drives, electronic controls, trade services, and robots. By 2023, Wuling strives to sell millions of new energy vehicles per year.
In 2021, SAIC-GM-Wuling's new energy vehicle sales reached 452238, an increase of 160% year-on-year. In order to achieve millions of vehicle sales in 2023, it is necessary to maintain a continuous year-on-year growth rate of 160% per year.
However, the high price of raw materials, the low price of integrals, coupled with the repeated epidemics and other factors, whether the price of Hongguang MINI EV can still be popular in the market needs to be marked with a big question mark. The question that arises from this is, what is the future of the low-end new energy market where Wuling Hongguang MINI EV is located?
It should be pointed out that the reason why the low-end new energy market where Hongguang MINI EV is located has been able to burst into flames before is not only because of Wuling's low-price strategy, but more to meet the needs of the consumer market.
Hongguang MINI EV is an alternative to low-speed electric vehicles, at present, the mainland low-speed electric vehicles are entering the end of policy elimination, and a large number of market demand in the future needs To be undertaken by Hongguang MINI EV. If the development dilemma of Hongguang MINI EV is brought to Hongguang BEcause of the double credit policy, how can the scene of picking up and dropping off children and traveling alone be satisfied?
It is precisely because the double credit policy is so important for the development of new energy enterprises and industries, its design needs to be adjusted according to the actual market conditions.
Previously, many business leaders have called for a revision of the double credit policy. Since the beginning of this year, Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, has said many times: "I hope that the state can establish a pool of points, solve the problem of double points, stabilize price fluctuations, and stabilize the business expectations of all parties in the industry." ”
Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD, also said at the "China Electric Vehicle Hundred Forum (2022)" that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2021 will reach a new high, the supply and demand of points will be seriously imbalanced, the price will fluctuate sharply, which is not conducive to the development of the industry, and it is recommended to refer to the grain reserve adjustment mechanism of agriculture and study the establishment of an integral pool to adjust the balance between supply and demand, enhance the predictability of the integral price, and ensure the effective operation of the double integral policy.
In fact, as early as the end of November last year, the Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the relevant departments and bureaus of the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration of Market Regulation organized a "double integral" management work forum in Beijing to revise the current "double integral" system, which is also the third revision since the release of the "double integral".
At present, the specific rules have not yet been introduced, and Wuling, which is trapped in them, is waiting for new opportunities. Of course, Wuling's previous control of consumer trends, accurate control of the psychology of target groups and marketing methods close to young people through Hongguang MINI EV will help Wuling again at the right time.
point of view:
From enviable to questionable, the ups and downs of Wuling's fate are lamentable. The twists and turns in this are not so much because of the double integration policy as they are attributed to themselves - Wuling's new energy sector is too thin to withstand the risk of changes in the market environment.
With the goal of one million vehicles in front, the construction of Wuling new energy plate system is imminent, and it cannot only rely on the support of Hongguang MINI EV, which accounts for 94% of sales.
Eggs cannot be placed in one basket.