The double credit policy has always been an important driving force for the rapid development of new energy vehicles in mainland China, but with the substantial increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles, the supply and demand pattern has been broken, and the points transaction price has ushered in a big dive.
In 2021, the positive points generated by the market as a whole are 3 times that of negative points, and the points transaction price has fallen below 1,000 yuan per minute. At the peak of 2020, the points transaction price was as high as 4,000 yuan per cent. The industry expects that according to the implementation of the current policy, the price of carbon credits may be reduced to 200 yuan in the future.
Industry insiders pointed out to the Red Star Capital Bureau that the points transaction income is the biggest additional income of new energy vehicle companies in addition to subsidies, and the reduction of this cake is one of the reasons why new energy vehicles need to increase prices. The regulatory role of the double credit policy is being invalidated, and the relevant government departments are already considering initiating revision work. Many industry insiders suggested setting up a point pool to adjust the supply of market points in the long run and stabilize the price of points.
There is a serious imbalance between supply and demand for points
The ratio of supply to demand is 3:1
According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 3.545 million units and 3.521 million units respectively, both of which increased by 1.6 times year-on-year, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years, with a market share of 13.4%, 8 percentage points higher than in 2020.
This is inseparable from the promotion of the double integration policy, the so-called double integration policy refers to the "Measures for the Parallel Management of Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Car Enterprises and New Energy Vehicle Credits" implemented by the mainland on April 1, 2018. CAFC (Enterprise Average Fuel Consumption Credit) positive points are carried forward or transferred to affiliated enterprises by themselves, and NEV (New Energy Vehicle Points) positive points can be freely traded to compensate for NEV negative points and CAFC negative points.
However, the shortage of points is a thing of the past.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently released the 2021 passenger car enterprise double points publicity, in 2021, China's automotive industry generated a total of 15.5349 million positive fuel consumption points, an increase of 255.7%; generated 6.1366 million negative fuel consumption points, down 47.6% year-on-year; new energy vehicle points, generated positive points of 6.7672 million points, an increase of 54.9%; generated negative points of 810,000 points, down 24% year-on-year.
That is to say, in 2021, the positive integral of fuel consumption and the positive integral of new energy totaled 22.3 million points, while the negative integral of fuel consumption and the negative integral of new energy totaled 6.95 million points, and the positive integral was 3 times that of the negative integral. Among them, the supply of the overall fuel consumption integral in the market is 2.5 times the demand, and the supply of new energy integral is 8 times the demand.
Industry insiders pointed out to the Red Star Capital Bureau that what caused the oversupply of points was the explosive growth of new energy vehicles, the growth of fuel vehicles was not obvious, and fuel consumption also declined.
Associated enterprises fuel consumption points and new energy credits are first combined within the enterprise after the statistics, BAIC, FAW, BMW (import), Dongfeng, Geely, Chery, Mercedes-Benz (import), Jaguar Land Rover (import) and other 32 enterprises need to purchase a total of 2.41 million positive points for new energy, BYD, Tesla and other 40 enterprises without negative fuel consumption can trade positive points of 5.64 million points, the supply and demand ratio of new energy positive points between mainstream car companies reached 2.3:1. In addition, since the positive credits for new energy after fiscal 2020 can be carried forward to the next year in proportion of 50% under the premise of meeting the requirements, there will be more new energy credits on the market in 2021.
From a seller's market to a buyer's market
The price of points is a big dive
Changes in supply and demand have transformed points trading from a seller's market to a buyer's market.
According to the research report released by Shengang Securities, the average unit price of double-point transactions in 2018 was 300-500 yuan / min, 800 yuan - 1200 yuan / min in 2019, 1204 yuan / min in 2020, and once rose to 2500-3000 yuan / min in 2021.
Integral transaction income has become an important source of income for new energy vehicle companies. NIO (09866. HK/NIO. US) sold a total of about 200,000 new energy vehicle credits in the 2021 trading year, with revenue of 517 million yuan, equivalent to 2585 yuan per cent; Ideal Automobile (02015.HK/LI.US) sold about 70,000 new energy vehicle credits in the 2021 trading year, with revenue of 200 million yuan, equivalent to 2857 yuan per cent.
However, with the substantial growth of the new energy vehicle market, the points transaction price has been significantly reduced in early 2022, and Dong Yudong, CEO of Great Wall Euler, has said: "This year's positive points transaction price may fall to 500 ~ 800 yuan / cent." ”
According to the forecast of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China is expected to exceed 5 million in 2022, and the positive integral transaction price may fall to 200 yuan / min.
This directly led to a sharp decline in the revenue of some car companies, especially some models produced specifically for earning new energy points, which were not only unprofitable, but even sold a loss. For example, the previously discontinued Euler black cat white cat, from the perspective of the value of points and profitability, the bicycle lost 6000-7000 yuan.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said that due to the return of fuel consumption points to the positive integration range of 10 million points, fuel consumption points have also reached a new high, and the price of new energy credits in 2021 should be less than 1,000 yuan, or even less than 500 yuan. This is also the reason why the new energy vehicles of car companies should increase the price, the new energy points can still have ten thousand yuan of income, and now it is a thousand yuan of income, and the gap must be made up by the price increase.
Half of the six major automobile groups have positive fuel consumption points
Large groups achieve a balance of fuel consumption points
Industry insiders told Red Star Capital Bureau that the major OEMs have not yet carried out electrification transformation, have not launched several new energy vehicles, and are large investors who purchase points. In 2020, the highest price of double integral transactions rose to nearly 4,000 yuan per cent, swallowing up the profits of car companies and forcing OEMs to accelerate the electrification transformation.
Red Star Capital Bureau noted that among the six major automobile groups, FAW Group and Dongfeng Group (00489. HK), BAIC Group's overall fuel consumption points in 2021 are negative points, and the overall fuel consumption points of the remaining groups are positive points.
FAW Group's fuel consumption points in 2021 are -250,000 points, new energy points are 50,000 points, and the main source of its negative fuel consumption points is FAW-Volkswagen, and the negative fuel consumption points are as high as -570,000 points.
Dongfeng Group's fuel consumption points in 2021 are -250,000 points, in 2020, it will be as high as -1.19 million points, and the new energy credits will be 20,000 points.
Baic Group's fuel consumption points in 2021 are -400,000 points, and new energy points are 30,000 points.
Changan Automobile (000625. SZ) Group's fuel consumption points in 2021 are 20,000 points, and in 2020, it will be as high as -1.41 million points, and the new energy credits will rise from 30,000 points in 2020 to 110,000 points.
GAC Group (601238. SH) fuel consumption points in 2021 are 650,000 points, and new energy points are 290,000 points. This is mainly due to the contribution of GAC Passenger Vehicles. In terms of fuel consumption points, GAC Passenger Vehicles contributed 870,000 points, and in terms of new energy points, GAC Passenger Cars contributed 440,000 points.
SAIC Motor (600104. SH) in 2021 fuel consumption points of 1.75 million points, new energy points of 310,000 points, the most important contributor is SAIC-GM-Wuling, bringing 2.33 million points of fuel consumption points and 120,000 points of new energy points.
Red Star Capital Bureau noted that nearly half of the new energy models ranked among the top domestic sales in 2021 are small and micro electric vehicles built by car companies for double points.
Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, which ranked first, sold 390,000 units in 2021 and exceeded 550,000 units since its listing in 2020, and Wuling Hongguang MINI EV has made great contributions to offseting the double points within SAIC.
Chery Ant, ranked seventh, sold 75,000 vehicles in 2021; Changan Ben E-star, ranked eighth, sold 75,000 vehicles in 2021; and Euler Black Cat, ranked tenth, sold 69,000 vehicles in 2021.
Cui Dongshu pointed out that due to the relatively poor performance of fuel consumption points in 2021, it is mainly joint venture brands. The joint venture brand itself in the past few years of fuel consumption savings is still good, in recent years sharply weakened, mainly because the new energy is too poor, but in 2021 the joint venture in the scope of the large group to which it belongs can achieve the balance of fuel consumption points, although the effect of new energy points offsetting fuel points is still not significant in 2021, which is actually to achieve our double integral combination pull target, in 2021 through new energy vehicles to promote the good effect of fuel consumption reduction of fuel vehicles.
The double credit policy is being revised soon
Industry proposes to establish a "pool of points"
The double credit policy is designed to replace the gradual withdrawal of the purchase subsidy, when the new energy vehicle purchase subsidy is completely withdrawn, the new energy enterprises can get benefits by selling the points. At the same time, the double credit policy can also inhibit traditional car companies from producing too many fuel-consuming models.
However, in 2021, the supply of positive points is seriously oversupplied, which will inevitably lead to a sharp decline in the transaction price of points, which deviates from the original intention of the policy.
BYD (002594. Wang Chuanfu, chairman of SZ), pointed out that it is recommended to study and set up a point pool with reference to the grain reserve adjustment mechanism of agriculture to adjust the balance between supply and demand, enhance the predictability of the point price, and ensure the effective operation of the double point policy. "The supply and demand relationship of integrals is affected by multiple factors such as the output and fuel consumption of various car companies in the industry, which is unpredictable, which will lead to oversupply of integrals in some years and less than demand for integrals in some years." Through the establishment of the point pool management system, when the supply of points exceeds the demand, the excess points can be put into the point pool, and when the supply is short, the points can be taken out and used, so as to adjust the balance of supply and demand in the points market in each year and ensure the effective operation of the double points policy. ”
Fang Yunzhou, founder of Nezha Automobile, also suggested at this year's National Two Sessions that "the state should form a pool of points to maintain a stable balance of point prices." He believes that it is very necessary to stabilize the transaction price of points, to ensure that the price of points is more than 2,000 yuan / point, further study the double integration policy, and achieve a balance between supply and demand in the market without reducing the value of new energy points for bicycles.
In fact, the relevant government departments have already begun to act.
At the end of 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a work forum with the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration of Market Regulation, saying that it is necessary to scientifically and reasonably set the requirements for the proportion of points for subsequent years, explore the establishment of a flexible mechanism, and will start the revision of the "Integral Measures" with relevant departments and bureaus.
Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said recently: "The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is strengthening the problems faced in the new stage of industrial development, conducting systematic research, revising and improving the management method of double points, exploring the establishment of a flexible adjustment mechanism, and clarifying the requirements for the proportion of subsequent annual points." ”
Industry insiders expect that from the perspective of the generation of double points and trading rules, the subsequent adjustment may be to increase the proportion of new energy credits, reduce the number of points that can be obtained by bicycles, or reduce the target value of fuel consumption to allow more enterprises to generate negative fuel consumption points.
Red Star News reporter Wu Danruo
Edited by Tao Yueyang
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