Written by / Long Shihui
Edited / Kilig
Design / Zoi.
Based on the background of the high globalization of today's automobile industry and the butterfly effect brought about by the Russo-Ukrainian War, no country's automobile market or automobile brand can stay out of the matter.
Among them, the most sensitive is the soaring oil prices, since February, the international crude oil prices have risen by about 13.14%, hitting a new high in nearly 7 years, and the severe Russian-Ukrainian conflict has increased the uncertainty of the crude oil market. Domestic refined oil is not spared, this evening (March 3, 24:00) after the price adjustment window continued to rise, the retail price of No. 92 gasoline "dignified" into the 8 yuan mark.
"Both enjoyed the oil price of 5 yuan, but also can carry 8 yuan of 92 oil gun", oil prices soared all the way, for the majority of fuel owners, it is indeed an unfavorable signal, but the owners of fuel vehicles also have to recognize, when buying a car, since they have entered the pit of fuel vehicles, and oil prices "share happiness and suffering" is also deserved. But which consumers who wander in 4S stores are also willing to boil expensive oil prices? It is said that at present, "oil prices soaring" has become a must-have for salesmen in Tesla stores that Xiaopeng, Nezha and even do not worry about selling: "A 300,000 oil truck, filling a box of No. 95 needs 400 yuan, a month of fuel costs 1,000 yuan, and charging, 200 yuan of electricity is enough to open for a month." ”
In the face of this cruel data, coupled with the blessing of green cards in big cities, it is difficult for buyers not to "abandon oil and add electricity" ideas. What is more noteworthy is that Russia is an important crude oil producer and exporter in the world, and the current international sanctions on Russian gasoline and natural gas exports are unlikely to stop in the short term, and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has no plans to increase production.
So, can the mainland's new energy vehicles take advantage of the "east wind" of expensive oil prices and occupy the position of fuel vehicles? Can new energy vehicles continue to expand their trend in the next city with a market penetration rate of 14.8% last year?
Is the global automotive industry suffering indiscriminate blows?
Perhaps from the terminal point of view, the sharp rise in oil prices will suppress the willingness to buy certain consumer cars, but from the perspective of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the industry, the blow to fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles is indiscriminate, because it is mainly a supply chain crisis.
The first is the "lack of core and less electricity" problem, such as neon (Ne) that must be used in the semiconductor lithography link, Ukraine's supply accounts for more than 70% of the world, and the upstream of the new energy power battery is the key use of nickel in ternary cathode materials, Russian nickel ore production accounts for about 9% of global output, even if many suppliers say that there is a preparatory plan, but the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will inevitably lead to tight supply and demand, and there is a possibility of subsequent rise. After a round of price increases for domestic new energy vehicles in February, the pressure of rising chip and battery costs may be transmitted to consumers.
In the supply chain crisis caused by this change in the international situation, the long-tail blow suffered by multinational car companies is also gradually emerging: at present, Volkswagen's two German factories have temporarily stopped production, because the suppliers of key parts are from western Ukraine, but they have been affected by supply interruptions; on March 1, Toyota also announced the suspension of production in 14 factories in Japan due to the hacking of parts suppliers; and car manufacturers such as Renault, Volkswagen, Stellantis, and Hyundai, which are deeply rooted in the Ukrainian market, Not only will sales be lost this year, but with Russia being kicked out of the Swift international settlement system, the cross-border payment and capital turnover costs of multinational car companies have greatly increased, and even difficulties.
Public information shows that Russia has always been the hinterland of China's own brand cars going to sea, last year Russia ranked third in the mainland vehicle exports, Geely, Chery and Great Wall in Russia sales have a year-on-year increase of 59%-224%, Great Wall Motors regards Russia as the first stop of the global strategy of car companies, and the current situation in Russia and Ukraine mainly affects Ukraine, will not bring impact to factory production and sales in Russia, but with the deepening of international sanctions on Russia, the downward pressure on the Russian economy has increased. The decline in residents' consumption power will inevitably affect the local car market, and being kicked out of the Swift system also means that when the Great Wall, Geely and other car companies export cars, the cost of the transaction will increase significantly, but Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association of Automobiles, said that the impact of Chinese car companies exporting to Russia will not be greater than that of Iran in 2018, because Russia has its own financial information transmission system SPFS, and China also has a CIPS cross-border payment system, but more dependent on Swift's European, American, Japanese and Korean car companies. The blow was even greater.
At present, including J.D. POWER and LMC Automotive and other institutions, has made a 400,000 downward forecast for global new car sales in 2022, although Ukraine has never been the core of the world's automotive supply chain, but the Russian-Ukrainian conflict caused by the automotive supply chain tension and raw material prices are indisputable facts, if the conflict between the two sides continues or the situation is severely escalated, it will bring a more far-reaching and extensive blow to the global auto industry that has been deeply bundled.
Hybrid is the next "safe-haven" model?
Rather than saying that under high oil prices, new energy vehicles have more advantages, it is better to say that consumers favor cars with "hedging functions", especially in the context of global economic turmoil.
Consumers' decision-making car purchase process is usually weighed in four key factors: core product strength, price, brand and service, the "barrel" formed by these four does not care how high the long board is, but cares about how low the short board is; and affected by the soaring oil price, the "price" advantage of fuel vehicles naturally declines, but if the core product power can compensate for a certain short board of the price, then the existing advantages of fuel vehicles in the brand and service are enough to impress consumers to buy.
To put it more bluntly, most consumers need a car with a good price, low cost of use, little trouble with supplementation, second-hand residual value and brand passable, to avoid the losses that may be caused by the economic downturn, knowing that cars are bulk consumer goods, but using cars and selling cars cannot make me lose a lot. Combined with the car habits of different consumers, in the past, "safe-haven cars" were fuel vehicles with low fuel consumption, but now they can be pure electric vehicles, PHEV and other new energy vehicles, or Japanese energy-saving models such as Hybird.
The data shows that in January this year, the sales of plug-in hybrid models increased significantly, while pure electric vehicles have declined, indeed relative to the real factors such as the endurance anxiety, difficulty in replenishment, and low second-hand residual value of pure electric vehicles, hybrid and fuel vehicles with low fuel consumption have better risk avoidance, and are more in line with the use habits of Chinese consumers. It is estimated that the proportion of consumers who buy hybrid models in this round of "oil abandonment and power" will be very high, but the premise is that the core product strength of these models is superior to that of the same level of fuel vehicles.
According to the data of the Association of Automobile Associations, since 2021, the wholesale sales of traditional new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles have shown a contrast of "one up and one down", and the overall strength of the automobile market last year increased by 6.5% year-on-year, reversing the negative growth situation for three consecutive years, mainly due to the promotion of new energy vehicles; and according to the retail sales statistics in January 2022, the penetration rate of new energy reached 16.6%, although it was lower than the fourth quarter of last year, but it was also 10% higher than the statistical penetration rate and continued to operate at a high level.
Che Lizi believes that the influence of traditional fuel vehicles has weakened, and the general trend of stronger new energy sales will continue to be staged in 2022. In the short term, the soaring oil price can promote a wave of purchasing power "abandoning oil and adding electricity", but in the long run, the strengthening of new energy vehicles, the first must rely on their own product strength to impress consumers, the second rely on social policies, brand reputation and car resources to promote together, otherwise a few rounds of oil prices rise and fall, it is too early to say that new energy vehicles replace fuel vehicles.
There are also a few particularly interesting variables here, which may have a lot of impact on the new energy vehicle market this year. First, when the sales of plug-in hybrid models rise significantly, will there be a second hot product as strong as Song PLUS DM-i in the market? Second, in 2021, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles of mainstream joint venture brands is only 3.3%, which is significantly behind the overall market, and Now it is ready to introduce pure electric vehicles, Shuangtian Kazusan, and All in EV Volkswagen, will be able to turn over this year? Third, last year, there was a serious "upside down" in the new energy of independent brands, and the independent car companies with the highest total sales of automobiles, such as Geely, Changan and other car companies, had the lowest penetration rate of new energy, how could they break the situation? Compared with the temporary surge in oil prices, these variables can stir up the domestic new energy vehicles.
Write at the end
The wind rises at the end of Qingping.
A series of risks caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the impact on the global auto market is obvious; the rise in domestic oil prices has also made many people helpless, but just need is just needed, should buy or will buy, high oil prices to restrict the consumption of fuel vehicles is only temporary. With the further understanding of rational consumers on new energy vehicles, it is understood that new energy vehicles are not only replacing or surpassing fuel vehicles at a certain point, but the choice of the general trend.
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