At the beginning of 2022, the Association announced the sales data for the whole year of 2021 as scheduled, and the cumulative retail sales for the whole year were 20.146 million vehicles, compared with 19.288 million vehicles in 2020, although some vitality was restored, but there was indeed a big gap between 20.6976 million vehicles in 2019 and even more than 22 million vehicles and 23 million vehicles in 2018 and 2017.
In 2021, the overall new car increment of the domestic automobile market has slowed down again, not only the impact of the epidemic and the lack of cores, but also the domestic new car market is close to saturation. Ordinary new models are difficult to become a new sales growth point, automotive products from horizontal development to vertical vertical development has become a major trend, large circle layer has become a number of small circle layer, accurate positioning of target consumer groups, lock in a certain type of consumer, in order to open up new growth points. In 2021, many car brands have targeted the relatively unpopular MPV models in the market, and many new cars have been listed together, will this be a new growth point in the domestic car market?
Many new players The pattern has not changed much
In 2021, the annual retail sales of narrow passenger cars announced by the Association of Passenger Vehicles were 20.146 million units, of which 1.079 million were MPV models. Let's take another look back at the sales performance of MPV models over the past five years.
As shown in the table above, since 2017, the sales of MPV models have shown a year-on-year decline, and this sales change trend is basically consistent with the overall sales volume of the market, compared with the annual sales data of cars and SUVs nearly 10 million, MPV models are indeed relatively unpopular. So in such a relatively unpopular market segment, what is the product structure?
In the past many years, compared with the sedan and SUV markets, the competition in the MPV market is relatively less intense, the overall market structure is relatively stable, and the sales contribution is mainly based on the Buick GL8, Honda Odyssey (Alison) and Wuling Hongguang family. Although the Buick GL8 and the Honda Odyssey (Alexand) are oriented to commercial and domestic use respectively, they have always had a relatively stable sales performance by virtue of their long-term accumulation of good reputation in the domestic market. The Wuling Hongguang family can be said to be a sudden rise, super high cost performance and practicality is their killer, and their emergence has indeed set off a boom in the market for entry-level MPV models.
In recent years, with the increase of investment in the MPV market by independent brands, some good MPV models have emerged, but they are still consuming the sales share within the MPV segment, and have not been able to replace the position of sedans and SUVs in the minds of consumers. Time to 2021, with the announcement of the national "three-child policy", there are many people predicting that the spring of MPV models is coming, accompanied by this "spring wind", for the MPV market to blow a number of new models represented by GAC Toyota Xena, Dongfeng Yueda Kia Kahua and Beijing Hyundai Kustu. Their addition has undoubtedly intensified the competition in the MPV market, and has also challenged old players such as the Buick GL8 and Honda Odyssey ( Alexander ) .
More attention, more models, when we think that this "spring wind" is about to blow through our faces, but after the sales in 2021, this "spring wind" seems to become "spring cold". Although the overall market sales in 2021 increased slightly compared with 2020, the MPV market in 2021 declined slightly compared with 2020. From the perspective of specific model sales, the mainstream model pattern of MPV has not changed significantly, of which the first place Wuling Hongguang has 252214 sales throughout the year, the second Buick GL8 has 161308 sales throughout the year, and the third place GAC Trumpchi M8 has sold 66153 vehicles throughout the year, which can be seen that the sales gap between the top three is more obvious, and it has not reflected the fierce competition, and the top three models in the list have not changed for many years, is it not possible to kill a "Cheng bite gold" in the MPV market segment?
The total amount of MPV market segments has declined, the main sales models have solidified, and no matter what brands and practitioners think, sales data is the only correct answer. The current MPV market has not yet encountered a "breaking point", consumers are still very conservative in their views on MPV, and the status in their minds cannot be equated with cars and SUVs, and have not become the "just need" for consumers to buy a car.
Especially the models that rank low in the annual sales list, the monthly sales are only about 2,000 vehicles, the consumer response is not strong, it is difficult for the brand to insist on increasing investment in the market segment, especially for MPV models, the larger body size, compared to the Sedan and SUVs Are not much different from the research and development costs, which are more realistic problems. In such an environment, the MPV market segment will inevitably develop to the low-end and high-end poles, low-end volume, high-end premium, it sounds simple, but the latecomers will inevitably have to compete with the Market for many years with Wuling Hongguang and Buick GL8, and the challenge is doomed to be not small.
As for the relatively less competitive mid-range or mid-to-high-end MPV models, it may only be possible for brands that have a lot of resources and are willing to continue to invest in the MPV market. In 2021, the GAC Toyota Syna, Dongfeng Yueda Kia Kahua and Beijing Hyundai Kustu and other models listed in 2021 are aimed at these two levels, but how they have achieved, at present, they have not yet become explosive models, of course, at the beginning of the new year, the future is still an unknown, in the end who can become a "dark horse", we may wish to pay attention to the performance of this year's MPV market.
How will the MPV market develop in the future
Combined with the sales data, the current MPV market has not yet become the next growth point of the car market, so will it usher in the opportunity of "outbreak" in the future? Speaking of the future, it must be indispensable to electrification, the current automotive market has already opened a full electrification, all market segments are no exception, and even hardcore off-road vehicles such as Mercedes-Benz G-Class have planned the EQG, a new pure electric model. Interestingly, it seems that no matter how unpopular the model is, as long as it is stained with pure electric, it can become popular, and for MPV models, electrification is undoubtedly a good development opportunity.
In fact, the electrification of the MPV market has long begun to brew, independent brands, SAIC Maxus pure electric MPV has become a mature series of models, and in 2021 also launched a new model MIFA 9, positioning the medium and large MPV, priced at 269,900-379,900 yuan, aiming at the high-end MPV market. In addition, Dongfeng Motor has also launched a dreamer positioning medium and large MPV in its high-end new energy brand Lantu, with two power structures of pure electric and extended range hybrid, which can cover more consumers. In addition, independent car brands such as SAIC, BYD, and Geely also leaked out the news of the launch of pure electric MPV models.
In terms of foreign brands, German brands have taken the lead in launching the layout, thanks to their respective new pure electric platforms, strong adaptability, for the development and production of MPV models to reduce a lot of costs, easier to achieve landing. For example, the ID.BUZZ based on Volkswagen's new MEB platform has been brewing for a long time and will be officially released in March this year, because the ID.3, ID.4 (CROZZ, X), ID.6 (CROZZ, X) and other models created for the MEB platform have been produced and listed in China, which shows that ID.BUZZ is also likely to enter the domestic market. In addition, Mercedes-Benz has already launched an EQV based on the current V-class in foreign markets, and in the future it will also plan an EQT based on a new platform.
Write at the end
For the current MPV market, we should not expect too much, nor should we be too bearish, or should be rational. In the future, whether MPV can become a new growth point in the car market will largely depend on electrification, and the electrification of MPV should not be a multi-person bearing tool, but also need to be given more intelligent functions, and even through the application of intelligent technology such as 5G, it will become an extension of the home, so that it is possible to face intelligent cars and SUVs when not at a disadvantage, so that MPV may become the first choice for Chinese consumers to buy cars.