Since the beginning of 2022, the A-share new energy track has become one of the largest sectors in the capital market with the largest adjustment. Public data show that in the first 6 trading days of 2022, the cumulative evaporation market value of the A-share new energy vehicle sector exceeded 500 billion yuan, and the Ningde era (300750. SZ) and BYD (002594.SZ) saw six consecutive declines.
Contrary to the volatility of the capital market, the industry is still optimistic about new energy vehicles. On January 11, the Association predicted that in 2022, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in China are expected to exceed 6 million, of which the cumulative sales of new energy passenger cars will exceed 5.5 million.
Affected by the above news, on the evening of January 12, the new forces of car manufacturing in the US stock market rose collectively, and as of the close of january 12, Eastern Time, Ideal Automobile closed up 3.15%; the stock price of Xiaopeng Automobile (XPEV) rose 5.68%, and Weilai (NIO) closed up 5.56%. At the opening of the market on January 13, the stock prices of most new energy companies, including BYD and Ningde Times, opened higher. Some analysts believe that the association will raise its expectations for the new energy vehicle market for the whole year, which has released a positive signal to the capital market.
It is reported that the initial sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 are expected to be about 5 million units. "According to the newly released policy, the framework and threshold requirements of the current purchase subsidy technical indicator system will remain unchanged in 2022. At the same time, in 2022, the new energy subsidy, from the original expected upper limit of 2 million subsidy scale, to no upper limit, will achieve subsidies throughout the year. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Joint Association, said in an interview with the "Daily Economic News" reporter that this favorable policy will bring a huge increase to the new energy vehicle market this year.
It is understood that the "Notice on Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" issued in April 2020 clearly states that the subsidy standards for 2020-2022 will be reduced by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively on the basis of the previous year, and in principle, the annual subsidy scale is capped at about 2 million vehicles.
In the newly released new energy vehicle subsidy policy, it is only clear that "the 2022 new energy vehicle purchase subsidy policy will be terminated on December 31, 2022, and the vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized", and there is no restriction on the subsidy scale of new energy vehicles this year.
Image source: Official website of the Ministry of Finance
In Cui Dongshu's view, new energy subsidies will no longer set a threshold of 2 million subsidy scale, which will form a huge pull on the overall trend of the new energy vehicle market this year. "The liberalization of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has actually brought huge incremental space, and the amount of subsidies will increase by at least more than 10 billion yuan." Cui Dongshu thinks.
Based on this, the ASSOCIATION will increase its previously expected sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2022 to 5.5 million units, and adjust its market penetration rate to about 25%. At the same time, the association will also increase the sales of domestic new energy vehicles to 6 million units in 2022, and it is expected that the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach about 22% for the whole year.
Different from the high expectations of the Association, the China Automobile Association maintained the expectation of "5 million new energy vehicles in 2022" released in December last year, and it is expected that the penetration rate of China's new energy vehicle market is expected to exceed 18% in 2022.
"The liberalization of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles is no longer the main factor affecting the market trend, the market has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven, and everything is determined by consumers and the market." Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, told reporters.
In Xu Haidong's view, in the future, what will affect the trend of new energy vehicles is the choice of the market and consumers, and whether the main engine factory can provide products that are more suitable for consumers.
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 3.545 million and 3.521 million units respectively, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year, and the market penetration rate reached 13.4%, 8 percentage points higher than in 2020. In December 2021, the monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles in China exceeded 500,000 units, an increase of 1.2 times and 1.1 times year-on-year, respectively, hitting a record high, and the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 19.1%.
From the overall trend point of view, in 2021, China's new energy vehicles show a phased rapid growth trend. According to the China Automobile Association, in February 2021, domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 110,000 units, sales exceeded 200,000 units in March, sales exceeded 300,000 units in August, sales exceeded 400,000 units in November, and sales exceeded 500,000 units in December. "Domestic new energy vehicle sales in 2022 may be slightly higher than our expectations, but for now the association still maintains the sales expectation of 5 million vehicles unchanged." Xu Haidong said.
Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, believes that in the medium and long term, the blessing of intelligent networked vehicle technology and the innovation of business models will greatly promote the popularization of new energy vehicles, especially the implementation of the "double carbon" goal, and accelerate the progress of the transformation of the automotive industry, and the above factors will effectively support the growth of the domestic automobile market in 2022.
(This article does not constitute investment advice, and you do so at your own risk)
Reporter | Li Xing
Edited | Duan Lian Pei Jianru Wang Jiaqi Yi Qijiang
Proofreading | He Xiaotao
| the original article of the daily economic news nbdnews |
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