As the opening year of the "14th Five-Year Plan", 2021 clearly sets the tone for growth in the automotive industry in the next five years. On the one hand, the overall sales of automobiles last year ended three consecutive years of decline and achieved positive year-on-year growth; on the other hand, the performance of new energy models is eye-catching, and the growth rate can be described as "crazy".
With the release of sales data in December, the 2021 new energy report card has also officially landed. According to the data of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 475,000 units in December, and the growth momentum is still rapid, up 128.8% year-on-year and 25.4% month-on-month. Last year, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars were 2.989 million units, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year.
New energy vehicles are no longer a "small role" that is better than nothing, but a new force that can really change the industry pattern and influence the ranking of car companies. Especially in the strong contrast between the trend of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles last year, the substitution effect of new energy vehicles on the fuel vehicle market is accelerating. In December, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached a new high of 22.6%, while the penetration rate of the whole year last year has reached 14.8%, which is fourfold from the 5.8% penetration rate in 2020.
In different types of markets, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles varies greatly. Taking December as an example, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in independent brands was 39%; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury vehicles was 32.7%,, while the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands was only 3.3%. This is also one of the main reasons why the sales volume of joint venture car companies has accounted for the majority of the year-on-year decline in sales in the past year. From the ranking of car companies and models of new energy passenger car sales last year, it will be found that behind the overall market growth of new energy vehicles, there are many new trends and new patterns that are forming.
Traditional car companies are catching up
In the past year, the most affected by the "dividend" of new energy is not BYD, as the sales champion of new energy manufacturers last year, BYD in pure electricity and plug-and-mix two-way force, not only ahead of the second place advantage is obvious, but also the top five in the largest year-on-year growth. BYD also became popular across the board with new energy, squeezing into the top 10 monthly sales and the top 15 annual sales for the first time. With the launch of more products this year, BYD's leading edge in new energy is difficult to shake.
Among the car companies that ranked among the top sales companies last year, they will find that traditional car companies occupy an increasing proportion. With the advantages of the system and channels, the pace of new energy of traditional car companies is accelerating. Among the top fifteen new energy vehicle companies in terms of sales, traditional car companies occupy ten seats, and the new car manufacturing forces except Tesla have not sold more than 100,000 vehicles.
However, looking at sales alone does not fully reflect the development trend of new car manufacturing forces. On the one hand, the new car-making forces are generally priced higher, and the profitability and level are better than those of traditional car companies; on the other hand, many new car-making forces were constrained by production capacity last year, and the number of products was limited. These problems will be comprehensively improved this year, so the development potential of new car-making forces this year is still optimistic.
In comparison, the performance of new energy models of joint venture car companies is not ideal, among the top fifteen car companies in terms of new energy sales, Chinese brands occupy 12, and the joint venture car companies only have two seats, FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC Volkswagen, and the ranking is relatively low, and the growth rate is not eye-catching. In the case that the overall sales of new energy models are expected to double in 2022, whether the joint venture car companies can seize the opportunity will greatly affect the market performance this year and even in the next few years.
Sedans have more potential than SUVs
What kind of new energy models are popular with consumers? Is there a fast-growing new energy segment with great potential? This is a problem that many car companies are analyzing and pondering. From the sales ranking of new energy models last year, we can indeed see some commonalities.
First of all, unlike the higher proportion of fuel vehicle SUVs, the sales of sedans in the top are significantly larger than the sales of SUVs. But in fact, from the number of models, the number of SUVs is not a lot. Although many car companies have launched the first few new energy car companies, they often use SUVs to test the water, but the current effect is mediocre. Some new energy cars have become sales responsibilities.
The reason for the high sales of cars is that most models are relatively low-positioned. Represented by Hongguang MINI, it opens low-cost entry-level new energy models to meet the ferry function of consumers' daily life, low purchase and use costs, and conforms to mass consumption. Therefore, whenever such a model is launched, it will achieve good sales results in the market, and even many times it is in short supply.
However, the endurance of this level of models is generally short, and the level of intelligence and configuration is not high. Too many similar products have poured into the market, and there is also controversy about the impact of the domestic new energy industry. But the sales appeal will make similar models flock in. Despite the large market capacity, this level of models will also usher in more fierce competition, which will drive the overall level of the model to improve.
The new energy SUV ranking shows a different scene, the sales of good models positioning is relatively high, more prominent in the quality of the car and driving performance and intelligent level. Therefore, compared with the car, creating a hot new energy SUV undoubtedly has a higher threshold, which is also the focus of some high-end new energy brands.
But unfortunately, the traditional luxury brands that should reflect obvious advantages rarely appear in the new energy SUV rankings, last year only bmw iX3 squeezed into the list of 13, and the electric SUV has been listed for a long time Mercedes-Benz and Audi, in the case of a sharp reduction in vehicle prices, the market performance is still not ideal. Second-tier luxury brands in the energy field, in addition to Cadillac has made a significant improvement, other brands seem to have not yet touched the doorway, with Tesla. The gap between Weilai and others continues to widen.
Conclusion: In 2022, although the subsidy for new energy bicycles "declines", resulting in a general increase in model prices, the subsidy scale has not been locked from the original expected upper limit of 2 million subsidy scale, and subsidies will be realized throughout 2022, so it is expected that the increase in new energy vehicles at the end of 2022 is very strong.
The association originally expected to sell 4.8 million new energy passenger cars this year, but now it should be adjusted to more than 5.5 million units, and the penetration rate will reach about 25%. Although the plate has become larger, there will be more new energy brands and models to share the "cake" this year. The pressure of competition has increased unabated, and it will be more difficult for some car companies to achieve "turnaround" in new energy!