What opportunities and challenges are hidden in the new energy vehicle market in 2022?

Statistics show that in 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.545 million units and 3.521 million units, respectively, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year. In addition, the market share of new energy vehicles increased to 13.4%, further indicating that the new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven. While terminal consumption is becoming more and more active, more and more independent brands have broken out a new path of "rising sales and rising brands" with new energy vehicles. The picture shows consumers experiencing a new car at a BYD store in Shanghai. Courtesy of Visual China

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"In 2021, a large number of vehicle companies have undergone a major change in their attitude towards electrification. Global cars are on the fast track of electrification and transformation, and China is at the forefront of the world. Fu Yuwu, honorary chairman of the Society of Automotive Engineers of China, commented that before the electrification transformation of Chinese cars was at the forefront, german car companies including Volkswagen, Audi, Mercedes-Benz, etc. have also opened the pace of electrification transformation.

On January 12, 2022, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released data showing that the production and sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 reached 3.545 million units and 3.521 million units, respectively, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year. In addition, the market share of new energy vehicles has increased to 13.4%, which further shows that the new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven, and has become one of the biggest highlights of China's auto market. Thanks to the pulling effect brought by new energy and export markets, the market share of Chinese brand cars has exceeded 44% in 2021, close to the best level in history.

While terminal consumption is becoming more and more active, more and more independent brands have broken out a new path of "rising sales and rising brands" with new energy vehicles.

New energy helps Chinese brands ride the wind and waves

BYD, which recently published the "2021 report card", is the promoter and beneficiary of this trend.

In December 2021, BYD sold 97,990 passenger cars, up 77.9% year-on-year. Among them, the new energy passenger car, which soared by 236.4% year-on-year, has become a veritable pillar of sales. BYD's new energy passenger car sales reached 92,823 units in December, breaking through the "monthly sales of 90,000 vehicles" mark for two consecutive months. It is understood that in 2021, bydir's cumulative sales of new energy passenger cars reached 593745, an increase of 231.6% year-on-year, once again refreshing the annual sales record of new energy vehicles.

The reporter learned that in 2021, the cumulative sales of BYD EV pure electric models reached 320,810 vehicles, and the cumulative sales of DM hybrid models 272935 vehicles, showing a development trend of pure electricity and hybrid "two legs, walking in unison".

"Facts have proved that once the purchase cost drops to a certain extent, new energy vehicles can form a dimensionality reduction blow to fuel vehicles." Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the passenger car market information joint meeting, analyzed that in the past, there was a large price difference between new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles of the same level, and the two markets were relatively independent, and in 2021, with the blessing of core technologies such as blade batteries, DM-i super hybrid and e-platform 3.0, BYD directly pulled the price of new energy vehicles down to the same level as joint venture brand fuel vehicles.

He said that with the advancement of new energy vehicle technology and the improvement of mileage, consumers' acceptance of new energy vehicle products is getting higher and higher, and the new energy vehicle market has entered a real market-oriented stage.

"The purchase threshold is not high, and the cost of use and driving experience are better, so that new energy vehicles can be called 'fuel vehicle disruptors'." Sun Wei, a car owner from Beijing, told reporters that the reason why he chose Song PLUS DM-i was two words - "worry-free, environmentally friendly".

It is worth noting that with the help of the wave of electrification and intelligence, the flagship models of BYD Dynasty car series - BYD Han and BYD Tang have achieved eye-catching market performance.

In 2021, the BYDHan family has sold 117665 vehicles, ranking firmly in the "10,000-car club" of medium and large cars. Among them, Han DM increased by 20.6% month-on-month in December, and Han EV sales exceeded 10,000 units for two consecutive months. In addition, the Tang family sold 54,204 vehicles in 2021 and 9,000 vehicles in December, an increase of 150.9% year-on-year. As of November 2021, Tang DM has entered the top three of the sales list of "new energy SUVs priced at more than 200,000 yuan" for five consecutive months.

Driven by the hot sales of flagship models such as Han and Tang, the unit price of BYD passenger cars exceeded 150,000 yuan in 2021, leading the way in independent brands, and even surpassing some mainstream joint venture brands, which is the epitome of the upward trend of domestic independent brands.

"At present, only from a technical point of view, Chinese brands have achieved comprehensive transcendence, whether it is modeling technology, or batteries, motors, electronic controls and other core technologies of new energy vehicles, as well as intelligent technologies such as intelligent networking and intelligent cockpits, which have surpassed the technical level of joint venture brands and led the development of global new energy vehicles." Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD Co., Ltd., publicly predicted that new energy vehicles are expected to account for 70% of the Chinese market in 2030, while the market share of Chinese car brands is expected to reach 60%.

"The development of new energy vehicles is undoubtedly a good opportunity for China's own brands to 'change lanes and overtake'." Professor Pan Helin, executive dean of the Digital Economy Research Institute of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, said that battery technology will greatly determine China's position in the new energy vehicle industry chain, and new energy vehicles can also be better integrated with intelligent vehicle networking technology, "like automatic driving technology and new in-vehicle audio-visual experience, will provide users with a completely different car experience from the past, which may even subvert the current pattern of the global automotive industry." ”

Power battery technology innovation also needs to "walk on two legs"

If you want to find a keyword for China's new energy vehicle market in 2021, "power battery technology innovation" must be one of the most likely options to be elected.

As we all know, the technological innovation of power batteries is roughly divided into two major directions, one is to overcome material innovation, such as sodium-ion batteries and cobalt-free batteries that are famous in 2021; the other is to improve the energy density and safety of power batteries by changing the battery structure and other process innovations.

In the view of Wang Fang, chief expert in the field of power battery of China Automobile Center and chief engineer of the testing and certification division of China Automobile Center, whether it is material innovation or process innovation, it is urgently needed in the current power battery industry, "We are still in the stage of rapid development of power batteries, so the more technological innovation in these two aspects, the better." ”

"Power battery material innovation can be seen as an invention innovation, is a breakthrough from '0 to 1'; and process innovation such as changing the battery structure belongs to the progressive innovation, which can promote the progress of 'from 1 to 100, or even to 10,000'." Wang Fang said that in recent years, these two kinds of technological innovations have risen and fallen, which has greatly promoted the technical content and product competitiveness of new energy vehicles. In the journey of power battery technology innovation, the coordinated development of industry, education and research and the promotion of the capital market are indispensable links.

The reporter learned that from 2021, the global lithium battery market demand has increased significantly. First, vehicle companies have accelerated the layout of new energy vehicle business, and the battery industry chain has competed to expand production; second, the price of bulk raw materials in the upstream has increased frequently, and power batteries have shown a situation of short supply. Previously, some insiders analyzed that in the next 5 years, the lithium industry market will usher in a blowout period and enter the TWh era.

Zou Guangcai, deputy general manager of the National New Energy Vehicle Technology Innovation Center, believes that because the use scenarios of new energy vehicles are very different, many technical routes have their market space. "Once the solid-state battery with higher energy density and higher safety is commercially applied, it will surely bring greater development opportunities to the new energy vehicle market, thus creating new business opportunities."

"Needless to say, when we discuss the power battery business model, a large part of the reason is to try to digest the cost pressure of power batteries." Zou Guangcai frankly said that if the cost of power batteries accounts for too high a proportion of new energy vehicles, it will set a high threshold for consumers to buy and use new energy vehicles.

"Only technological innovation can solve the problem of high cost." He said that on the basis of the continuous advancement of power battery technology, the purchase and use costs of new energy vehicle consumers can be reduced through the innovation of a series of business models, and even generate certain benefits. This will be the next step in the direction of the new energy automobile industry.

A person in charge of a mainstream battery company once admitted to reporters that the current cost of power batteries is still too high, so it is necessary to reduce costs and increase efficiency through technological innovation. However, he also judged that with the continuous rise in the production and sales of new energy vehicles, the industrial chain represented by power batteries will usher in a global layout.

According to the forecast of the Institute of High Industry Industry (GGII), by 2025, the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles will increase to more than 20%, and the shipment of power batteries will reach 1100GWh. Another expected phenomenon is that the total share of Chinese battery companies in the global market has surpassed that of South Korea and Japan, ranking first in the world.

"The king of competition is that the technology is stronger than the opponent, and the product should be more abundant than the opponent." Therefore, while accelerating the layout of production capacity, we must spare no effort to improve the technical level of the battery. Fu Yuwu believes that the competition around battery technology will be very fierce in the future, whether it is a battery manufacturer or an OEMs, they all want to "master the soul in their own hands" and want to firmly grasp the core technology.

He reminded that although there are many battery factories around the world, and some vehicle companies are also trying to master the battery themselves, China's power battery industry, regardless of technology or production capacity, is at the forefront of the world. "This is an extremely precious opportunity, even historic one. On the basis of playing a good first-hand chess, we must continue to work hard to consolidate the existing first-mover advantage. ”

In fact, technological innovation around the field of power batteries is not only expected to continue to improve the performance of new energy vehicle products, but also help accelerate the pace of popularization of new energy vehicles. For all related enterprises in the long industrial chain of new energy vehicles, technological innovation means new opportunities.

Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, predicted that China's auto market will continue to grow in 2022, and the annual sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 5 million, and the market share is expected to exceed 18%. From the investment opportunities of the industrial chain to the exploration of new business models such as energy storage and power exchange, the new energy automobile industry in the era of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" will undoubtedly have more imagination.

China Youth Daily, China Youth Network reporter Xu Yajie Source: China Youth Daily

Source: China Youth Daily Travel Weekly