Text | Roger
When the first wave of model 3 price cuts in 2020, I decided that Tesla was fierce, but it was still catfish, not sharks, for the Chinese market. Now more than a year later, Tesla delivered 936,000 vehicles worldwide in 2021, becoming the first million-volume (and soon-to-be) new energy vehicle company, and during this period, the growth of China's new energy market is no less than Tesla's.
Tesla did not announce the specific sales of each regional market, from the Shanghai factory sales, the cumulative number as of November has exceeded 400,000, the annual cumulative sales are expected to be no less than 450,000 vehicles, that is, tesla's global sales of nearly half.
However, this does not mean that it actually sells in the Chinese market, after all, a considerable part of the Shanghai factory is exported overseas every quarter, and the number of new car insurance is obviously more referenced. From the currently known data, Tesla's insurance volume in the Chinese market from January to November last year totaled 252,000 vehicles.
Considering that the Shanghai factory mainly supplies the domestic market in the second half of each quarter, the undisclosed Sales in December is expected to be around 50,000 units (52,000 units in September), so Tesla's cumulative sales in the Chinese market for the whole of last year may exceed 300,000 and double on the basis of 147,000 units in 2020.
What is this concept? In 2020, the total sales of Wei Xiaoli's three car companies will only be 100,000 vehicles, adding BYD Han's 30,000 vehicles, which is not as good as Tesla's increase in 2021. If the mid-to-high-end new energy market remains fixed, Tesla will eat up the share of the main potential competitors at once.
And the fact that we all know that the high-end new energy market did not stand still, but continued to grow, and not a small rise, is a big rise. In the first 11 months of last year, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars exceeded 2.5 million units, an increase of 178.3% year-on-year, and the recently known penetration rate of new energy vehicles in November reached 20.8%, that is, for every 5 new cars sold in the market, there was a pure electric or plug-in hybrid vehicle.
From this point of view, Tesla's 2021 year-on-year doubling of the growth rate, suddenly a little bit insufficient, in contrast, once regarded as Tesla's impact on the most dangerous brands and models, one by one, are more fierce than Tesla.
Xiaopeng won the first place in the delivery volume of the new forces in 2021, and the performance of 98,155 vehicles soared by 263% compared with 2020;
Only one model is ideal, and the annual sales volume has also reached more than 90,000 vehicles, an increase of 177.4% year-on-year;
Weilai, the smallest increase, also hit a new high of 91,429 vehicles in 2021, but the 109.1% increase is expected to still weigh on Tesla.
As for the "second-tier new forces" brands such as Nezha, Weima and Zero Run, they also have very eye-catching increases, considering their relatively low main sales prices, they will not be included in today's discussion for the time being.
A market that has struggled to survive for many years by subsidies and support, like a sapling that has been cultivated for a long time and is still in its budding state, suddenly entered a crazy growth mode, and soon stretched out branches and stabilized the root system. If you have to emphasize Tesla's role in it, it is more than catfish, it is simply fertilizer.
Of course, the maturity of the new energy market can certainly not be attributed to the influence of Tesla, and the explosive growth of the new energy market in the past year is comprehensive.
Xiaopeng, Ideal and Weilai each firmly established a market of 20, 30 and 400,000 yuan, a low price range of less than 100,000 yuan, in addition to the continuous explosion of Wuling Hongguang MINIEV, Chery Small Ant, Euler Black, White Cat, Nezha V, Zero Run T03 and even Changan Ben EV and other models, there is no shortage of pioneers who have broken through 5,000 or even approached 10,000 vehicles, and the hardest bone in the pure electric market of 100,000-200,000 yuan has also become sugar cane under the teeth of BYD DM-i series.
In the more high-end market, the price point surpassed Weilai and was comparable to the Porsche Taycan, but the sound volume was far less than that of "Wei Xiaoli", and it also achieved results that exceeded market expectations in the first year of delivery. From the official delivery of HiPhi X in May to November, the cumulative number of insured vehicles reached 3193, which does not look bright enough, but in the recently known November data, the number of HiPhi X has reached 763.
For comparison, porsche Taycan in November in the Chinese market was 271 units, Audi e-tron was 212, Tesla Model S/X two cars can be ignored, and the only domestic brand price point and HiPhi X close to the Hongqi E-HS9, November 402 vehicles.
That is to say, in the luxury market of more than 600,000 yuan (HiPhi X guidance price of 570,000-800,000), although the sales scale of HiPhi X is far less than that of BMW X5, Mercedes-Benz GLE and other models in the fuel market, it has become a sales benchmark in the electric market at this price. At present, it is known that it will enter this market, mainly mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi and other traditional luxury brands, before the EQS, iX and other models really enter the delivery, Gaohe's leading edge will remain for a period of time, and its second model, HiPhi Z, will also join the battlefield when a series of opponents are in place.
Looking back at 2021, the lack of basic viability of the brand has long been eclipsed, the brand that persisted, generally achieved a double harvest, this state of the entire market expansion surge, much like the previous years Haval relied on H6 in the 10-15 million yuan range to gain a firm foothold, detonated the entire independent brand SUV wave, and now has entered the mainstream market SAIC Roewe, GAC and Baojun, it is by relying on RX5, GS4 and other models to truly achieve a certain scale.
During that time, the SUV market was almost no "picky eater", it seems that as long as it is an SUV, as long as the price is in place, there are basically consumers in various budget ranges who accept all orders. Jianghuai Ruifeng, Beiqi Phantom Speed, Zotye, Lufeng and even Nazhijie have all been proud of the spring breeze for a long time. Today, these brands or series have disappeared from the eyes of the public, and even after a few years, these models have a pitifully low visibility on the road, as if they never appeared.
From this perspective, looking at the rapidly expanding new energy market, we should also maintain corresponding vigilance. The change of electric drive is irreversible, but it does not mean that the products or brands that developed in the early stage can continue to develop under the new pattern.
Of course, the new energy wave and SUV fever are still different, today's entire new energy market is like a legion, the spearhead is unanimously killed in the traditional market, and this also means another state: in essence, all new energy brands, regardless of price or product positioning overlap, are not each other's main opponents.
Like my description of Tesla in the previous article: its opponent is not any electric car, but all fuel vehicles. It is considerable that today, Weilai, Ideal, Xiaopeng and many other brands have also shown this momentum.
Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, the five major cities, on the one hand, are the most stringent representatives of the national fuel vehicle license restriction, purchase restriction and travel restriction, on the other hand, it is also the regional market with the largest sales volume of new energy vehicles, and the proportion of sales in these five major cities also reflects the dependence of new energy brands on the restriction and restriction policy.
As shown in the above table, Tesla, Xiaopeng and Weilai, which only do pure electric vehicles, account for more than 40% of sales in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou, of which Tesla and Weilai account for a significantly higher proportion in Shanghai, while Xiaopeng is more dependent on the local market in Guangzhou. This shows that they still have a certain dependence on policy support, and Mercedes-Benz, which is also a high-end brand, accounts for less than 20% of sales in the north, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou.
However, from a good point of view, with the continuous exploration of entry-level products, as well as the development and diving of distribution stores, the proportion of sales of pure electric brands in non-first-line limited purchase areas will also increase, which is the only way for new energy brands to further develop and grow.
In the past two years, the state's subsidies for new energy vehicles have been declining, but the market growth has become faster and faster, which is enough to show that policy support is no longer the core support of the new energy market, and the restriction of license plates and purchases is no longer a necessary motivation for consumers to purchase new energy vehicles. Especially in the low-end market of 100,000 yuan and less than 150,000 yuan, the regional distribution of electric vehicles has been similar to that of ordinary fuel vehicles:
In the middle of last year, Shanghai was interpreted as an obstacle to Hongguang MINIEV and local car companies' opponents due to changes in the licensing policy, in fact, from the perspective of the overall sales scale, Mo said that Shanghai's market, even if the five major cities in the north, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou have set special thresholds, the impact on Hongguang MINIV is also minimal, a total of 4.1% of the sales accounted for, enough to see how secondary the limited city is in the eyes of Hongguang MINI.
Euler Good Cat and BYD Dolphin, are two electric cars with a relatively bright performance in the range of 100,000-150,000 yuan, and the sales volume of the five major restricted cities accounts for 14.6% and 23.1% respectively, indicating that they have fully penetrated into the market across the country, and the overall sales scale can also break the wrist with the opponents of the fuel market in their respective market segments (hatchbacks).
As for the ID series that was claimed to have exceeded 10,000 months sales a few months ago, although it has the support of Volkswagen's distribution network in the markets across the country, the actual sales volume is still heavily dependent on the local market of the enterprise, for example, the ID series of its ID series in Shanghai accounts for 37.7%, and the lack of local support in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Beijing and other restricted areas, sales are far less than Shanghai city.
In Europe, the ID family has become the largest electric vehicle series outside Tesla, and it is not enough to come to China, which is as strong as the cloud, and Volkswagen is already the most prominent representative of the new energy transformation effect among the traditional joint venture brands.
summary
Li Bin, who was called the worst of the year in 2019, issued a message at the end of 2021 that "I don't understand why anyone still buys a fuel car?" " doubts;
In 2020, it was ridiculed by Volkswagen executives for the ideal of outdated technology, and won the sales championship of medium and large SUV in 2021;
BYD, which accounted for less than half of the sales of new energy vehicles in 2020, pulled this ratio to more than 90% at the end of 2021 and became the monthly sales champion of its own brands in November.
For brands that focus on fuel vehicles, 2021, when the epidemic has not subsided and is deeply in chip shortage, is not good, but they will still be obsessed with it, because every day that can be foreseen in the future will only become more and more difficult.
Needless to say "doomed", no need to add "sooner or later", belongs to the era of new energy, has come.
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Article from: Eleven cars
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