The characteristics of thick accumulation and thin hair, quiet and far-reaching make this company always in a favorable position in the long-term market competition.
Written by 丨 Meng Hua
Edited 丨tian grass
Produced 丨 Automan Media
For Toyota in the future, December 14, 2021 should be a historic day. On this day, under the attention of the industry, president Akio Toyoda personally presided over the press conference of Toyota's electric strategy.
Toyota announced that it will invest 4 trillion yen (about 223.9 billion yuan) to develop electric vehicles by 2030, with the goal of selling 3.5 million electric vehicles worldwide by then. Among them, the Lexus brand will be 100% electrified in China, the United States and Europe in 2030, and 100% electrified globally in 2035.
1
Different
In recent years, the electrification strategies of multinational giants, one more ambitious than the other, have made the media somewhat aesthetically tired. Toyota, which takes turns with Volkswagen in terms of sales, has a rhythm control of its electrification strategy, which is very different from its opponents.
At the beginning of 2019, Volkswagen took concrete actions to fully electrify, and Toyota announced at the end of 2018 that it would achieve "electrification".
However, Volkswagen's "electrification" is a simple EV path; toyota's so-called "electrification" is not a single EV, but a new energy solution that includes EV, HEV, PHEV, and FCV. Since 2018, Toyota has established a policy of maintaining the existence of all new energy paths and not giving up the absolute leading edge of HEV and FCV. Among them, the weight of EV is actually "adjustable".
In the last month of 2018, Akio Toyoda set a goal of "electrifying" 50% of sales in 2030, while officially promoting EV models in 2020, and of the 8 million "electrified" models sold worldwide by 2030, EV and FCVs totaled 1 million (changed to 2 million in early 2021).
Shigeki Terashi, then vice president of Toyota, promised to invest 1.5 trillion yen (about 83.9 billion yuan) to develop and produce batteries by 2030. The plan was immediately criticized as too conservative.
Toyota's heavyweight overseas markets are rapidly advancing electrification. Among them, the Chinese market is the most aggressive and the comprehensive promotion speed is the fastest. Toyota does not want to be pushed by public opinion, Toyota Akio has repeatedly stated that the enemy of the automobile industry is carbon dioxide, the important thing is decarbonization, and it is not realistic to equate decarbonization with EVs. At that time, overseas media misread Akio Toyoda's speech as "I do not intend to quickly promote EVs."
In fact, Toyota is a complete commercial company, never mass-producing immature technology products without profit or loss. The company's GENES are robust, as evidenced by market realities.
German cars once occupied an absolute advantage in joint ventures in China, and Japanese cars led by Toyota entered the Chinese market, seemingly slow to make decisions and slow to advance, but today, German and Japanese are almost in competition in China's joint venture market share.
Considering the market share of BBA in the luxury car market, Japanese household cars showed a situation of overtaking. In the US second-hand car market, Toyota (including Lexus) has several models and monopolizes the top five with the highest retention rate. China's used car market, although immature, also shows similar characteristics.
Inverted from the residual value, Toyota's understanding of the value of the product exceeds the market expectations. This is not something that the so-called "Toyota Faith" can sustain for a long time.
2
The time has come
Now, Toyota believes that the battery supply chain is close to maturity, and the market is psychologically prepared to accept electric vehicles. Toyota decided to "expand" and invest 1 trillion yen each year in research and development and capital investment. As a result, half of the funding by 2030 will be spent on electric vehicle development, an increase of 30% over the plan earlier this year.
"It's not that we're going to run out of all of this money, but it shows that we're ready." Toyota Chief Technology Officer Masahiko Maeda affirmed at the press conference.
Moreover, Toyota's transformation is not to adopt the strategy of "going alone on the front of the car", but to transform together with suppliers. These suppliers are in the long-term cooperation, forming a solid relationship with Toyota, and even cross-shareholding. This is also the reason why only Toyota can form a "goose array".
In the face of the huge challenges of the times, Toyota is not only thinking about its own destiny.
At the press conference on the 14th, Toyota launched 15 electrified models in one go, covering cars, SUVs, MPVs, sports cars, pickup trucks, and K-Car models, covering all of Toyota's passenger car product lines. By 2030, Toyota will launch 30 pure electric vehicles.
At the same time, Tatsuro Ueda, Director of Toyota China and Chairman of Toyota Motor (China) Investment Co., Ltd., confirmed that the bZ EV model plans seven models, and from 2022 onwards, five of which will be introduced to China. By 2025, Toyota (including Lexus) EV models will reach 10.
Importantly, Toyota has been committed to spending heavily on batteries. With the exception of BYD, almost no OEMs have invested as much as 50 percent in batteries. Since 2018, Toyota's investment in solid-state batteries has grown rapidly, trying to seize the high point of next-generation battery technology. This coincides with Volkswagen's approach, but Toyota's investment is more aggressive.
3
"Binary Temperament"
Toyota's research and development is radical, but mass production is cautious.
More than 20 years after HEV was put on the market, there has not been a single spontaneous combustion of batteries, and people take this record for granted on Toyota. Compared with the accidents of lithium battery applications, Toyota is simply a clear stream, which is a small nickel-metal hydride battery.
The thermal runaway problem of lithium batteries is the biggest nightmare in the industry. Talented engineers around the world are painstakingly trying to solve this problem, at least to alleviate it and avoid personal injury. Toyota believes that the ultimate way out of lithium batteries lies in solid-state batteries. In fact, everyone thinks so, but it is rare for Toyota to invest most of the lithium battery research and development funds in solid state.
While being a realist at the market level, Toyota is also a thorough idealist when it comes to safety.
As long as you understand Toyota's past style of behavior, you will understand that this "dual temperament" does not contradict it. In the face of huge market pressure, Toyota insists on consumers' right to choose, that is, to provide a variety of new energy solutions at the same time. This is a sign of respect for consumers and a choice to strengthen Toyota's technological advantages.
In the case of solid-state batteries, Toyota's intention is to master intellectual property rights and share technology with Panasonic, and the two sides have established a joint venture to this end, but the two sides have differences in the choice of electrolyte for solid-state batteries.
Toyota has found it difficult to commercialize solid-state batteries in the near future, so it has begun to adjust its direction and become more dependent on Chinese battery suppliers. In 2019, Toyota announced CATL and BYD as its battery suppliers. At the same time, Toyota did not give up its technical cooperation with Panasonic.
Toyota's bZ series, which is advancing almost simultaneously in China, the United States and Europe, is said to use BYD's lithium iron phosphate blade batteries. Therefore, some people say that Toyota's adherence to HEV and FCV has actually taken a fork in technology and is now a re-planning.
In fact, Toyota's 2030 electric strategy is a plan to enhance the strategic position of EVs. In terms of technical inheritance, the "three electricity" technology used by HEV has not been abandoned. Battery packaging technology, lightweight motor technology, there are obvious technical undertakings. Toyota is still at the forefront of EV technology, which is the technical underpinning of Toyota's ability to accelerate EV deployment.
For charging and inverters for EVs, the current technical solutions are silicon-based semiconductors. SiC (Silicon Carbide) is considered a third-generation semiconductor designed to replace silicon-based silicon on power devices, with higher energy conversion efficiency and easier cooling designs. Toyota began developing SiC technology in 2013 and is now ahead of major OEMs.
Because on the new generation of HEV Prius's PCU (power control unit), Toyota uses the SiC solution on a large scale, which reduces the size of the PCU to 1/5 of the original. Toyota thus became the first OEMs to mass-produce SiC applications on the "three electric" systems. At present, other manufacturers with small achievements in researching SiC are still limited to small-scale trials of SiC in charging facilities.
Therefore, toyota has always taken the initiative in the choice of strategic direction. Akio Toyoda has always emphasized that consumers have a choice, and the subtext is that he also cherishes Toyota's right to choose the direction of a company.
The choice does not fall from the sky, but only exists as a result of long-term technical and financial investment.
Toyota's cautious approach to strategic opportunities is not understood for a while, but the characteristics of thick accumulation and thin hair, quiet and far-reaching make this company always in a favorable position in the long-term market competition.
It may not always be the fastest, but it is often time to find the right time to cut in. Sometimes, no dispute is a dispute, and in the end, the world can not compete with each other. Toyota's style of doing things is a bit philosophical. Over the next 10 years, today's choices will be validated.
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