This year,500, the new energy vehicle market is growing faster than expected, with total sales expected to reach 3.3 million units. In November, new car-making forces such as Weilai, Xiaopeng, Ideal, and Nezha also collectively ushered in a sales increase.
"Big rivers are full of water and small rivers." For all competitors in China's new energy vehicle market, whether they can take advantage of the hot sales momentum at the end of this year is not only related to the results of the 2021 "final exam", but also directly determines the success or failure of the next enterprise upgrade. This is especially true for Chinese brands, especially for new car-making forces.
Statistics show that Weilai returned to the "monthly delivery volume exceeding 10,000 vehicles club" in November, delivering a total of 10,878 smart electric vehicles, an increase of 105.6% year-on-year, setting a record for single-month delivery. This year's monthly deliveries continued to steadily increase the ideal car, and sales in November also set a new record of 13,485 units. Xiaopeng Automobile delivered 15,613 units in a single month in November, up 270% year-on-year. Previously, the monthly delivery volume of Xiaopeng Automobile has exceeded the 10,000-unit mark for two consecutive months.
It is worth noting that Nezha Automobile delivered a total of 10,013 new cars in November, an increase of 372% year-on-year, showing a good momentum of jumping to the "first echelon of new car-making forces".
In addition, the sales of new energy vehicles of independent brands such as BYD, SAIC, and GAC also performed well. BYD recently announced that it sold 90,121 new energy vehicles in November, up 252.7% year-on-year. Among them, BYD Han EV sales were 10,021 units, becoming the first pure electric medium and large sedan with monthly sales exceeding 10,000.
"The growth of the new energy vehicle market this year exceeded expectations, but it is logical." Recently, at the 2021 annual media communication meeting of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred Association, said that the total sales of new energy vehicles in China this year are expected to reach 3.3 million, and next year is expected to impact the annual sales mark of 5 million vehicles.
In fact, as an important part of the unprecedented changes in the global automotive industry in a hundred years, China's new energy vehicle market has always attracted the attention of all players, including new car-making forces, independent brands, joint venture brands, and foreign-funded enterprises. Some analysts believe that joint venture brands and foreign-funded enterprises will collectively increase their product offensive next year, and with the subsidies for new energy vehicles declining next year, the new energy automobile industry will officially enter the market-driven stage, and the new energy vehicle market may usher in a new round of reshuffle.
What secrets are hidden in the collective sales of a single month
On the one hand, high-end intelligent electric vehicles have gradually become a vane in the market; on the other hand, the entry of technology companies will further accelerate the intelligence of automobiles. Therefore, some analysts believe that in the next market competition, the advantages of the new car-making forces represented by Weilai are expected to continue to break out.
According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to October this year, domestic new energy vehicle sales reached 2.542 million units, an increase of 176.7% year-on-year, accounting for 12.12% of the total new car sales, which has exceeded the general expectations in the industry.
"This year's new energy vehicle market continues to be hot, and behind the collective sales volume of new car-making forces in November, it is the impact of policy and market two-wheel drive." Pan Helin, executive dean of the Digital Economy Research Institute of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, believes that under the background of policy promotion and high-quality supply, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has far exceeded market expectations.
He analyzed that the first is policy support, especially after the goal of "carbon peak, carbon neutrality" is clear, many places have increased their support for the new energy automobile industry; secondly, the price of traditional fossil energy has gone high, and even the global energy shortage has occurred, which has highlighted the advantages of new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, "low cost of use"; and finally, new energy vehicle technologies such as batteries and electronic controls have gradually matured, and the quality of domestic new energy vehicles has been recognized by more consumers.
"First, the market-oriented transformation of China's new energy vehicles has accelerated, and private consumption has surged; second, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has amplified the demand for some consumers to use private cars to travel; third, the difficult supply of automotive chips that has swept the world, resulting in the tight production capacity of some joint venture brands and their absence in the fierce market competition." Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Joint Association, believes that these three are the main reasons why the growth of the new energy vehicle market this year exceeded expectations.
"Facts have proved that once the purchase cost drops to a certain extent, new energy vehicles can form a dimensionality reduction blow to fuel vehicles." Cui Dongshu said bluntly that in the past, there was a large price difference between new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles of the same level, and the two markets were relatively independent, but among the several explosive new energy vehicles listed this year, many of them directly pulled the price to the same level as the joint venture brand fuel vehicles. "The purchase threshold is not high, and the cost of use and driving experience are better, so that new energy vehicles can truly be called 'fuel vehicle disruptors'."
When announcing sales, Nezha Automobile deliberately emphasized that individual users accounted for more than 91% of the delivery volume in November. This means that some new energy vehicle products that originally rely on the B-end market as sales support are making great strides to penetrate and popularize the C-end market.
Interestingly, Li Bin, chairman of Weilai, He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Automobile, and other representatives of new car-making forces have stressed on many occasions that at present, for new energy vehicle brands, they have not yet reached the stage of competing with each other, and the common goal of everyone should be to make the cake of the intelligent electric vehicle market bigger and achieve the replacement of traditional fuel vehicles. Li Bin once said that only when the sales of new energy vehicles account for 50% of new car sales, is the beginning of competition between electric vehicle companies.
In fact, the catfish effect brought about by the new forces of car manufacturing is considered to be a major reason for the continued heat of the new energy vehicle market.
"In the process of the popularization of new energy vehicles, we cannot ignore these enterprises that bring the catfish effect." For example, Weilai, which has shaped a new way of playing user-oriented enterprises; for example, Tesla, which has repeatedly raised the price butcher knife. Yang Xiaolin, a senior auto media person, believes that whether it is a high-end product or an economic product, launching products that meet the needs of users in various market segments can fulfill its brand promises and realize its own brand value.
According to the analysis of Soochow Securities, on the one hand, high-end intelligent electric vehicles have gradually become the vane in the market; on the other hand, the entry of technology companies will further accelerate the intelligence of automobiles. Therefore, in the next market competition, the advantages of new car-making forces represented by Weilai, Ideal, Xiaopeng, Nezha, etc. are expected to continue to erupt.
Electrification into a "must-answer question" for car companies, production capacity expansion on the agenda
This year's monthly deliveries continued to steadily increase the ideal car, and sales in November also set a new record of 13,485 units. It is estimated that by the end of 2023, the annual production capacity of the ideal car can reach 500,000 units, and if two shifts of production are adopted, the total production capacity will reach nearly 700,000 units per year.
The vitality of the new car-making forces and the heat of China's new energy automobile industry are also reflected in the capital market.
From the bullish stocks related to the new energy industry chain in the A-share market, there is a saying that "lithium goes all over the world"; to the frequent success of new car-making forces and new brand financing, the development level of new energy vehicles has become an important criterion for investment institutions and international rating agencies to "score" car companies, which highlights this trend.
"In the third quarter of this year, NIO's revenue was 9.81 billion yuan, an increase of 116.6% year-on-year, an increase of 16.1% month-on-month, and the gross profit margin of vehicle sales was 18.0%, benefiting from the increase in revenue from the sales of new energy points and battery upgrade services, and the comprehensive gross profit margin was 20.3%." The relevant person in charge of Weilai Automobile said that in the first three quarters of this year, the delivery volume of Weilai reached 66,395 vehicles, and the delivery guidelines in the fourth quarter were 23,500-25,500 vehicles.
In addition, Ideal Auto expects to deliver 30,000 to 32,000 units and revenue of 8.82 billion yuan to 9.41 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of this year, while Xiaopeng Automobile expects deliveries of 34,500 to 36,500 units in the fourth quarter of this year, with revenue of 7.1 billion yuan to 7.5 billion yuan.
Due to the long industrial chain and many parts, automobile companies have always pursued scale effects. Some analysts said that at the current stage, the new forces of car manufacturing are in the "climbing over the hurdle" stage from 1 to N, and only after continuously expanding the scale and beginning to take shape with scale effect and hematopoietic ability can we further build a solid foundation in the industry, thereby further increasing market share.
According to reports, after the completion of the phased upgrade, the annual production capacity of JAC WEILAI Advanced Manufacturing Base will be increased from 120,000 vehicles per year to 240,000 vehicles and parts annual production capacity. By working overtime or increasing the frequency of shifts, the annual production capacity can be increased to 300,000 vehicles. In addition, NIO's second production base in Hefei Xinqiao Intelligent Electric Vehicle Industrial Park is expected to be put into operation in the third quarter of next year, when the overall production capacity will be further increased.
He Xiaopeng said in the Q3 earnings call that at present, Xiaopeng Automobile's Zhaoqing plant is implementing 20-hour production in double shifts every day, and the total design capacity of the Guangzhou and Wuhan plants under construction is 400,000 vehicles, and the annual output of 600,000 vehicles can be achieved through double shifts.
Ideal Auto revealed in the Q3 earnings call that it is expected that by the end of 2023, the annual production capacity of Ideal Auto can reach 500,000 vehicles, and if two shifts of production are adopted, the total production capacity will reach nearly 700,000 vehicles per year.
In addition to the expansion of production capacity, the head of the new car manufacturers have also set their sights on overseas markets. After successfully entering the Norwegian market, NIO recently announced again that it plans to enter at least 4 European countries next year. Xiaopeng Motors has also made it clear that in the future, half of the company's car deliveries will come from overseas countries.
"At present, China's automobiles have accelerated the pace of going out, which is inseparable from the accumulation of technological innovation." With excellent new energy vehicle products, Chinese brands dare to enter the mature automobile market in Europe. Cao Guangping, an independent researcher of new energy and intelligent networked vehicles, analyzed that after the baptism of the market, the products of the new forces of car manufacturing have been verified, and the brand operation has become increasingly mature. Compared with foreign brands such as German and Japanese, Chinese car companies have made early efforts in the field of new energy, especially pure electric vehicles, and have obvious advantages in product research and development, quality verification and the layout of the industrial chain such as power batteries.
Some analysts believe that in view of the current large number of subsidies in Europe, the support for the development of new energy vehicles is very strong, the market demand is obvious, and China's new energy vehicle exports are expected to maintain a high-speed growth trend next year. Therefore, the head new energy vehicle brand should take the opportunity of export to strengthen the brand power of Chinese automobile brands.
Don't forget the consistency of products and experiences as companies soar
Xiaopeng Automobile delivered 15,613 units in a single month in November, up 270% year-on-year. Previously, the monthly delivery volume of Xiaopeng Automobile has exceeded the 10,000-unit mark for two consecutive months. Previously, Xiaopeng Motors had said that in the future, half of the company's car deliveries would come from overseas countries.
It can be clearly seen that the competition between the head new car manufacturers is entering a new stage of large-scale competition. And this will inevitably trigger a new round of market reshuffle.
"Building a car is actually a marathon, which requires the physical strength and endurance of competing companies. Especially for new car manufacturers who claim to be user-based enterprises, larger-scale mass production deliveries often mean the beginning of greater challenges. Yang Xiaolin reminded that with the growth of sales, the product quality control, sales channels and after-sales service teams of the new car-making forces will usher in more challenges.
In his view, due to the complexity of technology and the long industrial chain, ensuring the consistency of products and services is the key point of automobile market competition, and it is also a major difficulty.
Recently, from the user of The Krypton 001 being complained about "the configuration of the wrong version", to the "Euler Good Cat" owner complaint, "publicized that it is equipped with Qualcomm octa-core chips, but the delivery is equipped with An Intel quad-core chip", a number of car owner rights protection incidents have sounded the alarm for new and old players of new energy vehicles.
Yang Xiaolin said bluntly that when the scale of product delivery is getting larger and larger, whether the company can ensure that all customers have the same level of products, and whether the after-sales service that was originally praised as 'considerate and meticulous' will shrink will be a major test of the comprehensive strength of the new car-making enterprises.
Pan and Lin suggested that the new forces of car manufacturing should pay attention to maintaining their own brand image, "on the one hand, to seize more market share through more competitive products; on the other hand, they cannot blindly exchange price for volume, but to operate their own brand image through high-level after-sales service, so as to cultivate user stickiness and brand loyalty." ”
"Of course, with the development of the 'new four modernizations' of automobiles, the division of labor in the automobile industry chain has also undergone tremendous changes." He said that as a vehicle enterprise, the new car-making forces should also reasonably expand to the upstream of the supply chain and enrich their technical capabilities. "In the past, people would say that it was the good car companies that could build engines. Now, good new energy vehicle brands should master the core competitiveness in the field of batteries and other fields. ”
As the competition in the new energy vehicle market enters the countdown in 2021, it is certain that the trend of "electrification" of the automobile industry will become more and more obvious and will continue to upgrade, and more Chinese car brands need to seize such a thousand-year opportunity.
Source: China Youth Daily (December 9, 12th edition)
China Youth Daily, China Youth Network reporter Xu Yajie
Special program of the 5th "Made in China Day"