There is a saying that | BYD cut off oil, who likes and who worries?

The author | Nie Yiyao

Produced | automotive grand view

On April 3, 2022, BYD announced the announcement of the suspension of the production of fuel vehicles, which is no longer news at this time, and the industry has watched wave after wave for the first time, sending applause and thumbs.

However, compared with everyone's gaze brushing at BYD's feat of slashing its own fuel vehicle business, it seems that not many people pay attention to BYD's feat, who will be happy and who will be sad.

Who's going to steal joy?

BYD cut off the oil and withdrew from the fuel vehicle market with a flick of the sleeve, which on the surface means that its original fuel vehicle market share will be handed over to friends who stay on this stage.

However, looking deeper, it is not so simple.

According to the data, from 2019 to 2021, BYD's fuel passenger car sales were 231,900 units, 237,300 units, and 136,300 units, accounting for 1.18%, 1.31%, and 0.79% of the domestic fuel passenger car market share, respectively. Among them, the main models that bear the sales of BYD's fuel passenger cars are mainly F3, Song Classic, and Song Pro.

At first glance, although the share is not much, it has declined significantly in 2021, but the good villains have also made room for their rival models. I don't know if I learned that BYD's rival model friends who stopped the fuel vehicle business had secretly stolen for a while.

However, if you continue to dig deeper, you will find that this matter is not necessarily worthy of anyone's snickering. The market share of fuel vehicles withdrawn by BYD may not be able to eat all the rival models, and even new energy vehicles, including BYD, will not leave any oil and water for fuel car friends.

In 2021, BYD's fuel vehicle sales were 136,300 units, down 42.56% year-on-year, but its new energy passenger car sales reached 593,700 units, up 231.6% year-on-year.

At the same time, in 2021, domestic fuel passenger car terminal sales were 17.157 million units, down 5.6% year-on-year. In 2021, the sales volume of new energy passenger cars in China was 2.989 million units, an increase of 169.5% year-on-year.

Two one drop and one liter, indicating two points. First, BYD's lost share in the fuel vehicle market has been made up for in the new energy vehicle market. This comes from two aspects, one is that BYD has obtained good market feedback with blade battery and DM technology, which is excelling in new energy brands and showing excellent brand competitiveness, thus achieving more and more sales performance in the new energy vehicle market.

On the other hand, BYD is largely converting its own fuel vehicle customers into new energy vehicle customers. For example, while the demand for Song Classic and Song Pro has declined, the demand for Song Plus DM-i and Song Pro DM-i has been bullish after the listing, especially the Song Plus DM-i listed in March 2021, and the sales volume has continued to remain strong in recent months.

Second, with the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles into the fuel vehicle market, all new energy brands, including BYD, have been rapidly grabbing the market share of fuel vehicles, including all price points, from low-end to high-end. Wang Chuanfu pointed out at the Electric Vehicle 100 Forum last month that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the mainland increased from 6% in January last year to 22% in December, an average increase of 1.3 percentage points per month. The penetration rate in the first half of March this year has exceeded 28%, and it is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainland China will reach 35% by the end of this year.

If this prediction is fulfilled, the fuel vehicle brand will continue to lose more sales. Then at that time, BYD withdrew from the fuel vehicle market, not only friends can not eat, but also it is very likely to be cut by new energy brands including BYD.

Therefore, if someone is really stealing that there is one less competitor in the fuel vehicle market, in fact, it should be careful, the opponent who unloads the fuel vehicle vest is going all out to cooperate with other new energy brands and prepare to sweep the fuel vehicle market.

Who will be sad?

The announcement of the suspension of production of fuel vehicles has made BYD the first traditional car company in the world to officially stop production of fuel vehicles. This also makes BYD a well-deserved role model for new energy vehicle leading brands and world car companies.

Because at the United Nations Climate Change Conference held at the end of 2021, traditional car companies, including BYD, Volvo, General Motors, Ford, Mercedes-Benz, Jaguar, and Land Rover, have just signed an agreement on "stopping the sale of fuel vehicles in 2040 and completely replacing fuel vehicles with new energy", clearly stating that they will completely stop selling fuel vehicles in 2040.

At the same time, there are also traditional car companies such as Volkswagen, Toyota, BMW, Nissan, stellantis and so on, who refuse to sign the pledge.

At present, BYD has stepped forward to announce the suspension of fuel vehicles, 8 years earlier than the time promised half a year ago. Is there a second traditional car company that can cut off the oil as quickly and decisively as BYD? High probability no.

The main reason is that other traditional fuel vehicle brands do not currently have a sales structure and proportion of new energy vehicles similar to BYD, of course, they cannot abandon the fuel vehicle dividend and develop new energy vehicles.

BYD cut off oil, in fact, relative to the growth rate and scale of its new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles have been like chicken ribs. In 2021, BYD will sell 136,300 fuel vehicles and 593,700 new energy passenger cars. Entering 2022, BYD's new energy vehicles are even more overwhelming, and the cumulative undelivered orders have reached 400,000 units, and are still increasing month by month. In the past March, BYD's sales have exceeded the 100,000-vehicle mark.

If you do not boldly cut down the fuel vehicle, it will drag down and affect BYD's investment and determination in new energy vehicles. Therefore, although due to the rise in raw material prices and changes in the model structure, the current profitability of BYD's new energy vehicles is not as good as that of Tesla, Weilai, Ideal and other new car-making forces, which has been criticized by the outside world as "increasing revenue without increasing profits". BYD still chose to stop the production of fuel vehicles, fully expand the scale and production capacity of new energy vehicles, strengthen supply chain security, and set a sales target of 2 million vehicles in 2022, with a conservative estimate of 1.5 million vehicles.

In contrast, there is indeed no second traditional car company with BYD's conditions for oil outage.

For example, Toyota Motor Group, which ranked first in the world in terms of sales in 2021, delivered 10.4955 million vehicles (including Toyota, Lexus, Daihatsu, and Hino), while new energy vehicles sold only 2.6219 million units (14,000 pure electric units and 2.6079 million hybrid units).

The Volkswagen Group (including Volkswagen, Audi, Porsche, Skoda, SEAT, etc.), which ranks second in the world in terms of sales, will sell 8.882 million vehicles in 2021, of which only 762,400 new energy vehicles will be sold (452,900 pure electric vehicles and 309,500 hybrid units).

For example, in 2021, SAIC-GM-Wuling ranked third in domestic new energy vehicle sales with 456,000 new energy vehicles, second only to Tesla and BYD. However, SAIC-GM-Wuling will sell 1.76 million vehicles in 2021.

Almost all traditional car companies are still greatly dependent on the market share obtained by fuel vehicles, and it is almost impossible for these traditional car companies to fully switch to new energy vehicles.

However, new energy vehicles have become the general trend of the global automotive industry, and this trend is becoming more and more clear and rapid. If traditional car companies do not show their actions and seize shares in the new energy car market as soon as possible, they will only be more passive in the future. People have no far-reaching worries, and in the trend of new and old car changes, car companies are the same.

Perhaps because of the above hidden worries, traditional car companies have shouted out new energy targets and plans from 2025 to 2030.

For example, Toyota announced a target sales target of 500,000 electric models in 2025 and 3.5 million electric models by 2030. Volkswagen aims to sell 1 million pure electric vehicles per year by 2025 and 5 million pure electric models worldwide by 2030. The Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance said that the proportion of new energy models will reach 50% in 2030. GM has set its goal of selling more than 1 million pure electric vehicles by 2025...

It can be seen that in any case, traditional car companies are already on the way to enter the new energy vehicle market, especially the pure electric vehicle market. Whether it can successfully become an advantageous force in the new energy vehicle market from a successful traditional car company depends on the next action, efficiency, and grasp of opportunities.