BYD's suspension of production of fuel vehicles shows that the new energy era has really come, and resistance, denial, and blindness are useless.
Author 丨Zice
Edited 丨tian grass
Produced 丨 Automan Media
Commercial publicity is similar to the draft, and it always has to show some blockbuster means. Either do the jeopardy or be the first to do it. BYD announced the suspension of production of fuel vehicles on April 3, stepping on two hot spots at the same time.
BYD is not only the first traditional brand in China to abandon the production of fuel vehicles, but also the first in the world. This jackpot was grabbed quite quickly.
The announcement makes it clear that the suspension of fuel vehicles is not the suspension of sales and the suspension of the supply of accessories. At the same time, it is not to stop the production of fuel engines. These are two different things.
1
The basis for the decision to discontinue fuel vehicles
It is not very appropriate to classify BYD as a "traditional car company"; it seems inappropriate to classify it as a "new force". BYD has transformed from a consumer electronics battery supplier to an oem and embarked on a unique route.
At the time of its transformation of the main engine factory, the electric vehicle market has not yet become a climate. At that time, BYD, fuel vehicles and electric vehicles were doing very generally, saying that they were second-tier manufacturers, and they were a bit lifting it.
However, after the advent of the electric era, BYD's full-chain advantages quickly became prominent. It can not only hold high the banner of lithium iron phosphate, self-supplied batteries, but also self-supplied IGBT chips, small-scale trial production of silicon carbide, and even infected with other car specification chip business.
This gives BYD more strategic leeway than competitors in the double shortage of chips and batteries.
With the research and development results of blade batteries, four-generation DM series, and flat-line motors, BYD has eaten enough technology dividends. It is surprising if it is not translated into commercial benefits.
In the process, its fuel engine research and development has stagnated and become a low-end commodity (related to its unintentional engine business), which is inconsistent with BYD's ambition to move towards the high end.
Dm hybrid series, pure electric range of 50 km, against HEV; evolved to 100 km, against PHEV; now more than 250 km, can fight EV.
Although bydir Qin Plus DM-i slogan is "fuel car subversive", the real situation is that DM before 2019, it will play a miscellaneous (only about 10%), and the amount of fuel vehicles will be taken.
By March 2021, it was a turning point where the proportion of fuel vehicles was less than 50%, and since then it has gone all the way down, completely stealing the limelight by the DM series. Until February 2022, only 3% of fuel vehicles accounted for 2270. At this time, the fuel vehicle lacks chips, and it is also grabbing production capacity with the DM series collinearly, and there is really no need to keep it.
It is said that BYD currently has accumulated 400,000 undelivered orders in hand. A large part of this is DM demand, due to the DM series basic and fuel vehicle co-production, from the order accumulation and follow-up development point of view, now the fuel vehicle is stopped, commercial interests have not been lost, anyway, all the production DM is not busy.
From the data point of view, BYD's management has decided to abandon the fuel vehicle as late as last March, but it is more conservative, and it has been watching for more than 9 months, waiting for the hybrid to fully prevail before officially making up its mind. This year, the fuel vehicle has no sense of existence in the scheduling, because it has been decided to give up.
In March, BYD's new energy vehicle production was 106658 units, an increase of 416.96% year-on-year; sales were 104878 units, an increase of 422.97% year-on-year, continuing to ride the dust. The fuel vehicle scheduling plan is zero, and it is no longer dry. The official announcement is just a formality.
2
No rush to slaughter "cash cows"
By DOING so, although IT has grabbed the "moral high ground", it has also "Wei Guangzheng" in the consumer group. After all, abandoning fuel vehicles (although fuel engines are still being produced) is in line with the national policy of double carbon. However, this move is tantamount to "generals" to domestic and foreign competitors.
During the Qingming Festival, the management of other vehicle manufacturers is estimated to have to work overtime to meet to discuss countermeasures and see if a wave of measures can be taken to try not to let BYD "specialize in beauty".
From the perspective of the parties to COP26 last year (coping conference on 26th session of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), almost all automotive industry powers were covered, while all multinational first- and second-tier automakers claimed to support COP26's goals. At that time, foreign public opinion ridiculed these automobile manufacturers for "fake feelings" and only said empty words.
At the end of last year, Volkswagen Group CEO Diess raised the issue in an internal speech (the same time that the union Daniela Cavallo sharply accused Dies) that Volkswagen had spared no effort to transform towards decarbonization.
However, based on the dual pressure of the union and the board of supervisors, Volkswagen actively pursues the new energy business, and it is impossible to abandon fuel vehicles, and Volkswagen plans to "stop selling" in 2035. In 2021, Volkswagen has stopped developing new internal combustion engines. And 2035 is also the last time node of the EU's plan to stop selling fuel vehicles (fit for 55), and Volkswagen has to stop without stopping.
This is the reason why public opinion says that multinational car companies are "hypocritical". As we all know, the "stop research" internal combustion engine is relatively simple, because the technical reserves of multinational manufacturers of internal combustion engines are relatively strong, and the thermal efficiency and fuel economy are no longer improved, which is not a big deal. Anyway, under the existing engineering level, it is very close to these two engineering limits.
The suspension of production is far more difficult than "suspension of research", and the suspension of sales is even more of a salary, almost impossible to play (only spare parts maintenance for profit). Stopping driving means eliminating fuel vehicles on the road, which is the ultimate vision, as early as 2050.
It is possible to roughly sort out the problem of multinational car brands on the discontinuation/suspension of fuel vehicles, and the time points set are divided into two categories: before 2030 and after 2030 (inclusive).
The following fuel vehicles will be discontinued/discontinued before 2030: Audi (2025), Lamborghini (2023), Bugatti (2024), Rolls-Royce (2030), Jaguar (2025), Volvo (2030), Infiniti (2025), Opel (2028), Alfa Romeo (2025), etc.
After 2030 (inclusive), the following fuel vehicles will be discontinued/discontinued: Toyota (2030), Renault (2030), BMW (2030), Bentley (2030), Mazda (2030), Fujifilm (2035), Hyundai (2035), Honda (2040), Ford (2030), General Motors (2035), etc.
It can be seen that those who stop production before 2030 are either luxury brands with shorter product lines; or the kind that is difficult to describe in the fuel vehicle business. The production that only began to stop production in 2030, without exception, is the kind that has achieved great commercial success in the fuel vehicle business and is reluctant to slaughter "cash cows".
It's not about environmental ideals, it's a business through and through. The environmental color imposed on car companies is just that their behavior is just in line with it. No one is willing to give up their area of strength to short and long.
3
New energy has shown a development trend
However, the significance of BYD's move can still not be denied.
Plug-in hybrid has for the first time the strength to suppress fuel vehicles in terms of comprehensive consideration of product strength, holding cost and user experience. Although some brands have done it and some have not done it, this is a clear signal that the new energy era has really come, and resistance, denial, and blindness are useless.
Pure electricity has not yet achieved the strength to suppress fuel vehicles in terms of comprehensive capabilities, but this day will come sooner or later. However, it will not be announced by a start-up company, like BYD. This is because the new forces have never developed or produced an internal combustion engine, and naturally there is no need to declare its end.
From the perspective of BYD's practice, the improvement of new energy product strength first benefits from the self-grasp of the supply chain.
In the field of fuel vehicles, similar scenarios have been eliminated for decades. However, the short supply chain of new energy and the value of the value concentrated in a few parts make it possible for the main engine factory to directly control the supply chain.
The climbing route of pure electricity will not be completely followed, because battery suppliers have no intention of transforming OEMs. However, it is possible to be deeply involved in car manufacturing, such as the joint venture company (Avita) jointly established by Changan, Ningde Times and Huawei.
Fundamentally, technological progress and R&D upgrading are still the driving force for product power improvement.
At present, pure electricity relies on subsidies and policies to suppress the consumption of fuel vehicles, and has not yet gained real market competitiveness. Before pure electricity can shoulder the burden of brand profitability, it is necessary to obtain sufficient product kinetic energy. It is unrealistic to expect to postpone this day as much as possible.
New energy is a definite development trend. In the countries of the parties to COP26, there has been no shortage of controversy and vacillation in previous years, but China does not seem to have. China's new energy industry continues to grow, and the scale of all competitors is out of the recognition of the future. And the trend that technology will eventually lead across the board is also contained.
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