Lead
Introduction
"Even if you can do better than me in a certain technical parameter, once you reach the final landing level, the cost disadvantage will quickly appear."
Author 丨 Cui Liwen
Responsible editor 丨 Luo Chao
Editor 丨Zhu Jinbin
On April 3, Beijing time, Wang Chuanfu, as the chairman of BYD, finally made up his mind to "swing the knife" and cut into his own fuel vehicle plate that has gone through more than 19 years of ups and downs.
The official statement is expressed like this: According to the needs of the company's strategic development, BYD Automobile has decided to stop the production of fuel vehicles from now on. In the future, BYD Automobile will focus on pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.
As a bystander, I was not too surprised to see such a decision that should have shocked the entire industry. Because whether it is from the proportion of traditional fuel vehicles in BYD's entire sales composition, or in the position of the entire product series, and even the meaning that the entire brand can give, it has gradually shrunk, and the edges are insignificant.
It's only a matter of time before we get eliminated in the end.
After choosing to say goodbye to the "past" completely, BYD, which has long regarded itself as "China's new energy leader", has undoubtedly sat more firmly in the title. As for the "knife" held by Wang Chuanfu mentioned at the beginning of the article, it is precisely the absolute protagonist who will be expounded next.
It can be said that its emergence, almost single-handedly, has changed the image of BYD itself, the volume of voice in the industry, and even the wind direction and trend of the market.
The answer, I believe many people have guessed, is that is, DM-i, which has become a "golden signboard"
The key to impacting "1.5 million vehicles"
At this moment, the epidemic is still raging, the problem of chip shortage has not been alleviated, and the price of raw materials for power batteries is also soaring sharply, but many negative factors have not stopped China's new energy market from achieving brilliant bloom at a very fast speed.
In the past March, according to the data released by the Association of Passenger Vehicles, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 455,000 units, an increase of 122.4% year-on-year and 43.6% month-on-month. From January to March, the wholesale number of new energy passenger vehicles was 1.190 million units, an increase of 145.4% year-on-year.
At the same time, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers reached 25.1% in March, an increase of 14 percentage points from 11.1% in March 2021. In March, the penetration rate of self-owned brand new energy vehicles reached 41%.
Under the good situation, looking at different technology branches, the wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles in March were 371,000 units, an increase of 116.8% year-on-year. Plug-in hybrid wholesale sales of 84,000 units, up 151.3% year-on-year.
Obviously, the rise of the latter sector is more gratifying, and to a certain extent, it also verifies the market prediction of some manufacturers that "plug-in hybrid is the first step in the transformation of oil vehicle potential passengers". And BYD has become a more close grasp of the "big market" trend among all car companies.
As an argument, in March, according to its official report card, 104,338 passenger cars were sold across the series, an increase of 160.9% year-on-year. Among them, DM plug-in and hybrid new vehicles sold a total of 50,674 units, a year-on-year increase of 615.2% and EV pure electric new vehicles sold a total of 53,664 units, an increase of 229.2% year-on-year.
There is no doubt that with the sales of more than 100,000 vehicles in a single month, under the parallel of the two technical routes, it is clear whose growth rate is faster. And this also reflects that if the pure electric plate is the backbone of BYD's realization of more changes, then the plug-in and mixed plate is the key factor that determines how high it can rush this year.
After all, according to Wang Chuanfu's prediction before, "the growth of new things is never equally proportional, it is first low and then high." Even according to the conservative estimate of equal proportions, the penetration rate of new energy at the beginning of this year will definitely be more than 20%. If an additional 15 per cent is added, it could be as high as 35 per cent by the end of this year, far exceeding the original master plan. ”
Combined with its above-mentioned outlook for the overall market and the performance of 291,378 new cars sold in the first quarter, BYD's annual sales target is set at 1.5 million units, which is reasonable, but it is still full of challenges and difficulties to complete.
However, fortunately, although its official did not give a positive reply, combined with the information that has been obtained, the car company is selling several plug-and-go products equipped with DM-i, and as of now, the cumulative number of undelivered orders or more than 400,000 vehicles.
After visiting the terminal store, it was learned that the corresponding pick-up cycle also needed more than 4 months. Such a hot situation has become the biggest source of BYD's self-confidence in daring to shout out "1.5 million vehicles", and it has also gained solid votes from users.
So, new questions arise: Is DM-i really as good as I thought?
Late arrival of "one hit and one hit"
To be fair, looking at the current Chinese new energy market, when BYD sacrifices the DM-i sharp knife and harvests more and more rich dividends, it is bound to make the rest of the joint venture brands or independent brands hungry, and also raise the heat of the plug-in plate and more rapid development.
Especially after entering 2022, the wind direction is more obvious, accompanied by the successive landings of the Great Wall DHT, Geely Thunder God, Chery Kunpeng, and Chang'an iDD, there is a scene of opening up the crowd to dominate. In this process, BYD undoubtedly still occupies the largest terminal share and initiative.
The reason is that after years of precipitation, the technical level has continued to trial and error, correction, and even pay a painful price, and finally ushered in the harvest, occupying a large part of the proportion.
In fact, readers familiar with this car company must know that as early as 2003, BYD began to invest manpower, material resources and financial resources to start developing a "plug-in hybrid system". On December 15, 2008, the first BYD F3 DM equipped with the first-generation DM hybrid system was officially launched.
At that time, the design concept of this system was mainly based on energy saving as the technical orientation, through the structure of dual motors and single-speed reducer with 1.0L self-priming three-cylinder engine, to achieve pure electricity, range, hybrid (including direct drive), three driving modes, for the typical "P1 + P3" architecture.
In terms of parameters, the maximum power of the first generation DM hybrid system engine is 50kW, the peak power of the generator is 25kW, and the peak power of the drive motor is 50kW. The whole system matches each other, theoretically can achieve pure electricity per 100 kilometers of power consumption of 16kWh, comprehensive working conditions fuel consumption of 2.7L performance.
However, the disadvantages are also very obvious, limited by the redundancy of some parts, poor transmission stability during use, and low power ceiling, including the overall manufacturing cost is too high, resulting in a much higher car price than traditional fuel vehicles, which has been exposed.
Therefore, the sales side did not receive too good a response. Fortunately, BYD still relies on the first generation of DM hybrid system to show its brand label of focusing on new energy.
Soon, over time, IND officially released the second generation of DM hybrid system in 2013. Compared with the low energy consumption of the first generation, it is completely the opposite, completely moving towards the performance trend, and the architecture is directly converted from "P1+P3" to "P3+P4".
BYD's powertrain of "three engines and four wheel drives", which is well known to more people, has officially arrived. In terms of parameters, the first model is the 2014 BYD Qin DM, the power system of the car is composed of a 1.5Ti cylinder direct injection engine with a maximum power of 113 kW, a 6-speed dry dual-clutch transmission and a P3 motor with a peak power of 110 kW, which is accelerated to 5.9 seconds with a maximum power of 100 km/h.
A year later, relying on the Tang DM, BYD upgraded the power part to a 2.0T engine with a maximum power of 151kW, and changed it to a 6-speed wet dual-clutch transmission, and the acceleration time of 100 kilometers was increased to 4.9 seconds.
However, from the perspective of the experience of some users, the fuel consumption performance of the feeder is poor, and the P3 motor has low efficiency in some working conditions, which has become its biggest shortcoming.
To this end, BYD launched the third-generation DM hybrid system with the help of the 2018 Tang, which continued to maintain the performance trend. Compared with the second-generation DM hybrid system, the biggest change is the addition of BSG motors in the P0 position of the front section of the engine, thereby improving the vehicle's feed energy performance and ensuring a smoother start-stop of the vehicle.
In addition, the third generation of DM hybrid system is also equipped with a P4 motor, the maximum power is upgraded to 180 kW, and the acceleration time of 100 km/h is increased from 4.9 seconds to 4.3 seconds. In addition to the "three engines and four wheel drives", BYD has also enriched the power combination of the third generation DM hybrid system, and launched the "dual engine four wheel drive" combination of P0 + P4 structure and "double engine front drive" of P0 + P3 structure.
However, the above series of efforts, although more accurately hit the heart of some potential customers with corresponding needs, but for more ordinary consumers who prefer low energy consumption and long endurance, there is no very strong perception, so the brand level has not been able to usher in enough considerable quantitative changes.
In the face of such a dilemma, especially the force to insert and mix the plate for more than a decade, from the perspective of BYD, it is time to make certain compromises, sort out ideas, sort out past gains and losses, and make changes.
In June 2020, Beijing time, the fourth generation of DM hybrid system dual platform strategy was officially released, that is, the decision to go to DM-p and DM-i two different "technology trees" at the same time.
According to the official introduction, "p" means powerful, inheriting the structural design concept of the second and third generation DM hybrid systems to pursue power and performance; "i" means intelligent, inheriting the structural design concept of the first generation of DM hybrid systems to pursue energy consumption and endurance.
Further split, the new DM-p is mainly focused on the replacement of the new 7-speed dual-clutch transmission, compared with the previous 6-speed dual-clutch transmission, the speed ratio difference can be reduced, improving the smoothness. And the 1.5T and 2.0T engines required for the powertrain have been redesigned and redesigned, with large-capacity batteries, and the pure electric endurance can be more than 200 kilometers.
In contrast, DM-i is a new and more important branch of the fourth generation of hybrid systems. As mentioned earlier, BYD finally gave up the obsession of only pursuing performance, and returned to the development path of focusing on fuel consumption and fuel economy after many years.
Compared with the first generation of DM hybrid system, dm-i is simply by increasing the motor power and using a large-capacity battery, so that the engine becomes an auxiliary part of the power, and finally makes the vehicle itself achieve the effect of "more electricity, less oil".
And the advantage of DM-i is also that the structure is very simple, the driving mode is mainly: pure electric mode, series mode, parallel mode and kinetic energy recovery mode. On many key components, such as the Snap Cloud engine, EHS system and plug-and-mix special blade battery, it is completely independently developed.
Taking advantage of the situation, BYD has finally ushered in this late "one hit".
Put aside the technology and look at the essence
At this moment, in the face of the heat wave caused by DM-i, I am always thinking: what kind of insertion and mixing system is the most in line with the current situation of China's new energy market?
Is the drive motor good enough and efficient? Is the use of multi-speed transmissions to achieve the most balanced energy performance and power output of the vehicle in each working condition? Or is it because of the use of large-capacity power batteries, the battery life in pure electric state is very abundant?
About the answer: If it is the perspective of the station main engine factory, then the technical level has its own indestructible "moat", which will inevitably have many benefits.
But from the perspective of a most ordinary user, the perception of the above series of problems, or the degree of care, is far less than imagined.
On the contrary, after communicating with several friends who bought plug-in models around them, it was found that, aside from the technology itself, the real fuel consumption in the case of vehicle feeding; the corresponding comfort configuration and intelligent configuration are rich enough; the most critical point is that the price will not be too high compared to the traditional fuel vehicles of the same level, and the price will not be too high with full sincerity, which is what they are most concerned about
This is precisely for every car company that wants to grab the "cake", the supply chain control ability, cost optimization ability and production and manufacturing ability, put forward very harsh requirements. As everyone knows, after years of integration and cultivation, BYD can be said to have certain advantages in the above dimensions.
"The fact that the DM-i system is so underpriced actually makes it uncomfortable not only for us, but also for many other brands that want to plug in and mix, especially joint ventures. Blindly ignoring the follow-up, it is definitely going to lose money and make money, but if you continue to follow your own established strategy, you will watch the terminal share continue to lose. ”
It is undeniable that the above paragraph from the answer of an engineer of a car company can already reflect the plight of most of the participants at present. And BYD undoubtedly through the launch of DM-i, located in the entire plug-and-mix market, set a difficult to cross the "hard threshold".
The subtext seems to say: "Even if you can do better than me in a certain technical parameter, once you reach the final landing level, the cost disadvantage will quickly appear." It is also with this "sharp knife" in its hand that BYD has gradually mastered the pricing power and initiative to push a new level.
However, historical experience tells us that there are two sides to everything. Successfully achieving multi-dimensional balance is indeed the sharpest edge of DM-i.
It can be seen on the side of stagnation, how to realize DM-i faster external supply, let other brands except BYD share, and expand the scale effect, as if it is an urgent task to be solved at present.
As for the meaning, it is very simple: when the plug-in mix market is not as hot as it is today, the Japanese mixed camp represented by Honda and Toyota is the absolute king of the terminal. The existence of technical barriers has enabled Camry and Accord to continuously harvest potential users with lower comprehensive energy consumption than traditional fuel vehicles.
However, the hidden danger is that since the beginning of the "two fields", it has not considered opening up the corresponding hybrid patent to the outside world. In the end, the two indirectly earned a lot of money, but the corresponding market share of the product itself did not get a more significant jump. In other words, it has not taken advantage of the uniqueness of the technology itself, and China has won a greater share and discourse.
It is precisely because of this that IT gives a similar BYD the opportunity to bypass the block and use the plug-in hybrid track to overtake in the corners. The sudden emergence and recognition of DM-i is also the best evidence.
At the same time, with the existence of the lessons of the past, it also makes it deeply aware that in the rapidly changing current situation, anyone may be completely replaced, and a temporary lead is nothing. Compared to a single blossom, a hundred flowers may be the best ending.
It is foreseeable that this car company, which regards itself as a "new energy leader", still has many difficulties to overcome in the future.
| Cui Liwen |
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