On March 31, the domestic BMW X5 was launched. Although the use of live broadcast form, less immersion in the listing activities, the model is not replaced, but this does not affect the car's circle of friends tacit understanding screen. Obviously, behind the domestic BMW X5, there is a subtle "leverage effect".
Can the domestic production of BMW X5 leverage the bigger changes in medium and large luxury SUVs? And how will it provoke the sensitive nerves of the joint venture share ratio? Will it have an impact on the new forces that are emerging?
1
The market leadership is further amplified
The arrival of the domestic BMW X5, just like Zhang Ailing's golden sentence "fame should be early", before the formation of public opinion has been overwhelming, there is a lot of money to be purchased to see each other and hate the meaning. On the eve of listing, the price "smoke" of the domestic BMW X5 has become a hot topic, so that the news that "BMW X5 starts at 558,000" appears. The BMW X5, which has a starting price of 699,900 imported cars, can be directly reduced after being a hot-selling model domestically produced? YiPinjun thinks it is obviously unlikely. It was not until the official price was announced that our prediction was confirmed.
On March 31, when the final price of 605,000 was released, although there was no expected "price climax", the combination of "domestic + price reduction" was enough to shake the medium and large luxury SUV market.
In the past 2021, bmw X5 won the luxury medium and large SUV sales crown with 50217 units, ahead of Mercedes-Benz GLE's 47786 units and Audi Q7's 16237 vehicles, and far ahead of the second-tier luxury camp in the Cadillac XT6, Volvo XC90, Volkswagen Touareg and other models. The BMW X5 domestic production, the most intuitive performance is that the size has become larger, the wheelbase lengthened by 130mm all to the rear row, the data is directly approaching the big brother BMW X7, and the overall price has also been pulled down by about 100,000 yuan, firmly grasping the initiative of competition in their own hands, perfectly interpreting "people who are better than you are working harder than you.". It is not difficult to judge that the BMW X5 will further widen the gap with Mercedes-Benz and Audi in the BBA competition.
If only the target to the BBA to align the pattern is small, after the BMW X5 domestic production, the 2.0T model increased to two, the price dropped to 605,000, the spearhead directly stabbed into the hinterland of the second-tier luxury brand. Take lincoln aviator, Volvo XC90 as an example, the main sales model of these products is basically priced at about 600,000 yuan, before many consumers were limited to a limited budget, or the pursuit of cost performance and chose a second-tier luxury brand, and now the same budget, one step into the BBA ranks, is not fragrant?
From the perspective of comprehensive market performance, the imported BMW X5 has sacrificed a "domestic" butcher knife in the context of already "selling crowns" to further enhance competitiveness and expand market advantages.
2
Set off a new round of domestic competition
Bmw's chess game, Mercedes-Benz, Audi can only passively accept? Apparently not. Don't forget, the lengthening was Audi's preemptive move.
"After the localization of BMW X5, the price will be reduced, and sales will be further increased, which may also accelerate the localization process of Mercedes-Benz GLE and Audi Q7." Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Association, said, "In the future, with the continuous growth of China's luxury car market, more and more products will be introduced into Chinese production, which is the trend. ”
In fact, as early as two years ago, Kang Linsong, chairman of the board of directors of Mercedes-Benz AG, said that in the next decade, China will continue to be Mercedes-Benz's largest growth market. Mercedes-Benz will adjust the layout of its global factories to pay more attention to the input-output ratio and shift production to places with more market value. At that time, it triggered the news of GLE domestic production. It was even rumored at one time that Beijing Benz had completed the domestic GLE project and was scheduled to be officially listed in the middle of 2023 when the model was remodeled.
Similarly, the Audi side is not calm.
In 2020, the approval documents for savoy Volkswagen Audi's project to produce Audi C-class SUVs were circulated on the Internet, and the C-class SUV here was considered to be the Audi Q7 or Audi Q8. Judging from the current model characteristics of SAIC Volkswagen Audi (A7L, Q5 e-tron), it is largely the latter. If the Q8 is produced by SAIC Volkswagen, will the Q7 be far away in the FAW-Volkswagen Audi domestic production?
Stimulated by the localization of BMW X5, Mercedes-Benz GLE and Audi Q7, as old rivals, are also expected to speed up the playing of domestic cards, after all, they are already in a backward position, and it is more difficult to shake the status of BMW X5 without fast forward.
Similarly, second-tier luxury brands have relied on "cost performance" to grab the market, and the desire for domestic production is even stronger, Lincoln Aviator has been domestically produced in 2021, and it is said that Volvo XC90 will soon join the localization camp. Otherwise, in the face of the arrival of the domestic BMW X5, these brands may not even be able to keep the final "cost performance".
3
Leverage the chess pieces of the stock ratio
Some people may ask, why have Mercedes-Benz GLE and Audi Q7 been brewing for so long, but domestic boots have not landed for a long time?
On this issue, we may wish to observe the arrival of the domestic BMW X5 from another dimension. On February 11 this year, the BMW Group officially announced that from now on, the bmw side's shares in the BMW Brilliance joint venture company will be changed to 75%, and the remaining 25% of the shares will be held by the Chinese side Brilliance, and the validity period will be extended to 2040. BMW Brilliance has also become the first joint venture company to adjust its share ratio after the opening of the share ratio policy.
We know that Brilliance and BMW's share ratio negotiations have a long history. As early as 2018, the state confirmed for the first time the timetable for the opening of the auto stock ratio. In October of that year, BMW said it would acquire part of BMW Brilliance for 3.6 billion euros, increasing its shareholding to 75%. Nowadays, the stock ratio adjustment and bmw X5 domestic production have both landed at the same time, is this just a coincidence? Zhang Xin, an analyst in the automotive industry at Guotai Junan, told Yipin Automobile: "If BMW wants to get more shares, it must show more sincerity, and the introduction of domestic models is an important performance." ”
Another visible fact is that despite the adverse effects of lack of cores, epidemics, and raw material price increases, the sales of luxury brands such as BBA are still strong, and profits have increased significantly. Accelerating the localization process is not only an important means to improve profits and expand the market, but also an important guarantee to combat the uncertainty of the global market. Cui Dongshu believes: "The domestic production of BMW X5 will bring double growth in market and profits, which is good for both sides of the joint venture. In fact, the earlier the stock ratio adjustment is determined, the more favorable it is to accelerate the localization of models. ”
If you guess according to this line of thinking, at the end of last year, foreign media rumors that Daimler's willingness to increase its stake in Beijing Benz will increase from the current 49% to 65%. Although BAIC has debunked the rumors, will it also accelerate the internal stock ratio adjustment when it sees the domestic BMW X5 on the road? In December, BAIC Already held a 9.98 percent stake in Daimler. Daimler also holds 9.55% of the shares of BAIC Group listed in Hong Kong (BAIC Motor) and 2.46% of baic group's shares in the A-share listed company (BAIC Blue Valley). Cui Dongshu previously said in an interview that this move may be prepared in advance for the possible change of the stock ratio of Beijing Benz in the future.
Although Audi is not as complicated as Mercedes-Benz, it has established Audi FAW New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd. last year, of which Audi holds 60% and FAW holds 40%, balancing the passive situation of AUDI accounting for only 19% in the FAW-Volkswagen Audi project.
The "share ratio" and "domestic production" are like the two weights of the game, to some extent, the Chinese side grasps the right to speak about the change of the share ratio, and the foreign party controls the domestic discourse power of the model, and behind the right to speak is the issue of interest distribution, at this time, the domestic production of the model has become a pawn to pry the adjustment of the joint venture share ratio.
Perhaps, the day of the stock ratio adjustment is the time when Mercedes-Benz GLE and Audi Q7 are domestically produced.
4
Meet new forces
In 2012, China's luxury car market exceeded one million units for the first time, and in 2021, this scale reached 3.472 million units, an increase of 20.7% year-on-year, which is 14.2 percentage points higher than the growth rate of passenger cars. Some analysts said that by the end of 2022, domestic luxury car consumption exceeded 4 million units. From the perspective of market share, the penetration rate of luxury brands in the Chinese market last year was just over 13%, and it is expected that this proportion will reach 20% by 2030, and the growth prospects are very attractive.
At this time, in addition to the traditional luxury old cannons, the new forces on the intelligent electric track are also staring at this market.
Weilai, Gaohe, Sharon, Ideal... These new forces launched an attack on the market of more than 500,000 yuan on the new track to attract those high-end consumers. The ideal L9 pre-sale price locked in the level of 400,000 to 500,000 yuan; the average price of the high-end HiPhi X positioned at a higher end was close to 700,000 yuan, and it exceeded 5,000 units in only 10 months; Weilai ES8 sales reached 20,000 vehicles last year, and the new ES7 will be released soon. "After the launch of the NIO ES7, it will be benchmarked against the BMW X5, and it is expected that these two cars will become the most anticipated big five-seat SUVs in 2022." At the WEILAI sharing meeting two months ago, Qin Lihong, president of WEILAI Automobile, did not shy away from competing head-on with the BMW X5.
If the BMW X5, which previously started at 700,000 yuan, and these new power luxury brands are just two parallel tracks, then as the price drops to 600,000 yuan, the two begin to meet. For consumers, how to choose at the intersection becomes a new problem.
Some industry insiders believe that the arrival of the domestic BMW X5, when BMW's high-end new energy models have not yet formed a complete layout, is conducive to rapid occupation and covering more market segments, which is not only to reserve grain and grass for themselves, but also to compete with new forces in time.
Overall, the significance brought by the domestic BMW X5 has surpassed the model itself, seizing more markets, creating more profits is only its "duty", the "side effect" may be more luxury brands to join the ranks of domestic production, and these are accompanied by complex factors such as stock ratio and supply chain adjustment, in this sense, the domestic BMW X5 is not a "domino".