Although the domestic luxury car market is generally good, China's imports continued to decline from 1.24 million units in 2017 to 930,000 units in 2020 at an average annual rate of about 10%. Although the import market in 2021 was affected by the shortage of cores, with 930,000 units imported, it still increased by 0.1% year-on-year compared to 2020. In 2022, vehicle imports continued to be affected by shortages and changes in market demand, with vehicle imports reaching 880,000 units, down 5% y/y, still down from the low point of imports over the past decade. Among them, 64,000 units were imported in December 2022, up 7% y/y.
The core driving force for the growth of the import market is still the consumption upgrade of passenger cars, so compared with ordinary fuel vehicles, the trend of luxury cars and imported cars is generally very good, but the electrification transformation has changed the demand for fuel vehicles, and the demand for imported fuel vehicles has also declined significantly. With the withdrawal of the halving policy for cars under 2 liters, the future growth pressure of imported cars is greater, but if the problem of import shortage improves rapidly, some imported cars will also achieve stable growth in the future.
First, the overall trend of China's automobile imports
1. Characteristics of automobile import growth rate
After the sharp decline in the world economic downturn from 2013 to 2015, the import growth rate stabilized and improved slightly from 2016 to 2017, continued to decline from 2018 to 2020, stabilized slightly in 2021, and the recovery of imported cars in 2022 was affected by the epidemic, and the current monthly import volume remained at an average monthly level of about 70,000 units.
In 2021, imports reached 930,000 units, with a growth rate of 0%, which is a strong performance. Imports in 2022 reached 880,000 units, down 5% y/y, maintaining the downward trend since 2018.
In 2021, the import market stabilized, with imports of 930,000 units, down 0% y/y.
Imports from January to December 2022 reached 880,000 units, down 5% y/y, a significant decrease from imports from January to December 2020. Imports of imported vehicles in December were 64,000 units, up 7% y/y, with the year-end weakening of December.
Considering the current shortage of international supply caused by the epidemic and chip shortage, there is still great potential for future import car increments to promote the recovery of growth throughout the year.
2. Monthly trend of vehicle imports
After the epidemic, imported passenger cars returned to normal. From the monthly trend, imports in recent years still show seasonal characteristics, showing the characteristics of high summer and peak and decline trend of roller coasters.
Imports from January to December 2022 were slightly lower than those in January to December 2021, mainly due to the sharp decline in May and June, and insufficient market supply. Imports from August to October this year grew rapidly, and last year's base was lower due to chip defects, and imports recovered better this year.
3. Structural characteristics of automobile import
The import market from 2017 to 2019 was relatively stable. In 2021, 930,000 vehicles were imported, a large increase from 2020. In the past two years, the import of traditional trucks and buses has declined, especially the import of heavy trucks and medium-sized trucks, reflecting the completion of demand release after the epidemic. However, the import of pickup trucks for light trucks is strong, reflecting the high market recognition of pickup trucks in the United States.
Only passenger cars in the automobile import structure accounted for 99% of the absolute main position this year, of which the import of four-wheel drive SUVs in the past two years was weak. In 2022, commercial vehicle imports performed strongly, especially truck imports rebounded, of which pickup trucks were stronger.
4. Structural characteristics of new energy vehicle imports
The traditional fuel import market for passenger cars has fallen sharply, the pure electric passenger car import has performed strongly, and diesel vehicles have also rebounded.
The share of diesel vehicles in trucks has declined, while the proportion of gasoline trucks has increased significantly. The import performance of high-end pickup trucks improved from January to December 2022.
Recently, the performance of the new energy passenger vehicle market is relatively strong, and the import bus market is also relatively excellent.
Due to the import structure dominated by passenger cars, the proportion of diesel vehicles in passenger cars has continued to decline in recent years, and the proportion of diesel vehicles has dropped to less than 1%.
5. Structural characteristics of automobile imported displacement
The displacement of imported passenger cars is concentrated in gasoline models of less than 2 liters, accounting for half of the total passenger car imports. However, the recent import trend is stronger than 2 liters of large-displacement imported cars, and the high-end trend of the market is strong. The performance of the 2-liter model improved slightly in the fourth quarter.
6. Characteristics of new energy vehicle import countries
From 2017 to 2019, the import of new energy vehicles was large, but in 2020, Tesla's domestic production caused by a large decline in pure electric vehicles.
In 2021, pure electric vehicles will decline greatly due to the impact of Tesla's domestic production, but the trend development of new energy has allowed more companies to import new energy. The growth of plug-in hybrid and pure electric recovery from January to December 2022 reflects the trend of overseas new energy transformation.
Second, the overseas market pattern of automobiles
1. Import characteristics by country
From 2017 to 2019, Asian imports grew rapidly, European imports remained stable, and North American imports showed a downward trend.
In 2020, after the epidemic, imported cars resumed performance differentiation; European imports performed relatively strongly in 2021; In 2022, the recovery of imported vehicles is obvious, and the scale of imports from Japan improved in the fourth quarter, while imported vehicles such as the United States performed moderately.
2. Monthly trend of vehicle imports
In 2022, major countries such as Japan, Germany, and the United States performed relatively well, while imports such as Austria and Mexico increased well, but imports from Slovakia and Italy in December fell sharply year-on-year. Recently, U.S. imports have been weak, while some European imports have shown a year-on-year divergence.
The proportion of imports in major countries remained above 98%, and the recovery of markets such as Mexico was more obvious.
Third, the sales pattern of the automobile market
1. Overall sales of imported vehicles
At present, the sales performance of imported cars is slightly worse, weaker than the trend of domestic luxury car market. Imported vehicle sales in 2021 reached 940,000 units, down 6% from 2020 sales.
In December, the impact of the epidemic on the retail sales of imported cars was still greater than that of domestic cars. Sales of imported vehicles from January to December 2022 were 840,000 units, significantly lower than in 2021 and relatively weaker than the performance of domestically produced vehicles. Due to the shortage of goods in Japan and Europe, domestic cars are stronger, which is also the advantage of the domestic industrial chain.
2. Brand characteristics of imported cars
At present, the growth of imported cars mainly depends on the growth of luxury cars, and the proportion of luxury cars has increased from 77% in 2017 to 91% in 2022. The proportion of imports of ultra-luxury cars has increased slightly, reflecting that the purchasing power of ultra-high-end consumer groups has actually risen.
3. Trend characteristics of imported car brands
At present, the highest sales volume of imported car brands is Lexus, and Lexus' share has continued to grow in recent years, and it has become the first imported car brand in 2019, and it will remain the first in 2022 despite its decline. Recently, Mercedes-Benz and BMW performed well in December imported car retail, and Mercedes-Benz was surpassed by BMW. But Toyota's imports are poor, and they have plummeted in the past two years.
The import performance of Mercedes-Benz and BMW was relatively stable, and BMW's performance in December was relatively strong. Porsche's imported car sales continue to grow rapidly, which is also a relatively strong brand among European imported cars.
4. Trend characteristics of imported car models
In 2022, the trend of traditional luxury cars in China is relatively weak, among which the main brands with the best import sales performance, Lexus ES, BMW X5, Lexus RX, Mercedes-Benz GLE and Porsche Cayenne perform better.
Lexus's share performance this year is relatively weak, due to the relatively good control of the epidemic in Japan in 2022, so the supply of Lexus is relatively good, but the performance of Lexus NX is weak, resulting in an overall weak performance. Recently, the Porsche Cayenne is stronger.