"Renqi" BBA electric strategy - film emperor level effortless, in order to appear to be extra-powerful

Author: Xie Renjie

The Beijing Auto Show is temporarily gone, and the three BBA companies are still issuing new products. To say that the good point is to "keep the rhythm", and to say that it is not good to listen to may be not optimistic about the postponement to June.

On April 20, BMW issued a pure electric 7 series. A day before that, Audi released a concept car called "urbansphere" as the end of the sphere series trilogy. On the same day as Audi, Mercedes-Benz issued a new EQS SUV.

Conventional commercial bragging, which is not repeated here. The common denominator of the BBA is that the new product is a "positive" pure electric product, which is part of the electric strategy and the Chinese strategy.

A few basic facts

There are a few basic facts here that need to be further elaborated. Whether it is global or Chinese, the BBA is still the handle of luxury cars. In China, BBA's market share, about 70% of luxury cars, accounts for the entire car market share, slightly more than 10%. Although their respective products are intended to go to the volume of the share, but the majority of profits, still by the backbone of the car series and imported top series equally divided.

In the United States, the entry level of this brother was pushed flat by Tesla. But the most lucrative high-end series they pride themselves on still hasn't faced any challenges. As long as the people of China, the United States and Europe think that the BBA (which may only be some models) drives out to "earn face", in the foreseeable future, the BBA has no market worries. This may not be consistent with the public opinion propaganda that the so-called new forces have revolutionized the life of luxury cars.

Many years ago, the director of "The Godfather" Francis Coppola, who was not trusted by the production company, suffered a lot of grievances in the process of filming. After being appointed as the director of "The Godfather 2" by Paramount, the dude king returned. The first condition he proposed was to equip him with an S600. "That thing is old and decent, sitting inside like the Pope."

The new forces argue that this view is too stereotypical and too old-fashioned. But what they take out to defeat cognitive magic is technology. They have a number in mind, only fools, in the luxury attributes and BBA to die.

Profit is king

In this way, the BBA's true attitude to electrification, three points of thin coolness, three points of ridicule, four points of carelessness, is much more reasonable. Although this kind of fan-shaped statistical chart is commonly used in the "hegemonic text", it is placed in the brand of the BBA, which has always been pretentious and arrogant and petite, and it is a bit condescending to engage in electric.

Why? Because of the policy. The European Union's tightening carbon emissions policy is driving luxury and sports car brands crazy. If the electric car back carbon emission is not produced, the progressive fine alone is enough to deprive all profits in 2 or 3 years.

Fortunately, China is pursuing a double credit, not a direct carbon policy. This gives the multinational giants who are at a disadvantage in carbon emissions a breathing space. From the beginning of last year to this year, the BBA has been singing the tune of "China is the second home". In the past, such a fleshy word, only the public opened up to say. In 2021, the limit of exactly 95 g/km will take effect. Converted to 100 kilometers of fuel consumption of less than 4 liters, if you do not play pure electricity, even if PHEV (feed state), 48V light mix or HEV, may not be able to get it.

In China, rely on partners to back points, do not buy, and the price of points this year may only be 200 ~ 300 yuan / cent, this money for BBA, can only be regarded as sprinkling water.

In 2021, BMW sold 2.52 million units worldwide, up 8.4% year-on-year (846,000 units in China, up 8.9%year-on-year); Mercedes-Benz sold 2.42 million units worldwide, down 4% year-on-year (759,000 units in China, down 2% year-on-year), and Audi sold 1.68 million units, down 0.7% year-on-year (700,000 units in China, down 3.6% year-on-year).

Electric sales are even more difficult to say, BMW 103,900 units, Mercedes-Benz 48,900 units, Audi 81,900 units. Although the growth rates are all high, the base is too low. BMW pure electric iX3 or spelling price reduction, to get this performance. In China's 2021 pure electric model rankings, the iX3 ranked 15th (less than 22,000 units), the only model in the BBA to squeeze into the top 15.

In sharp contrast, BBA profits have hit record highs over the same period. BMW Group revenue of 111.2 billion euros and net profit of 12.46 billion euros, an increase of more than 223% year-on-year; Mercedes-Benz revenue of 168 billion euros, net profit of 23.4 billion euros, an increase of 484% year-on-year; Audi revenue of 53 billion euros, net profit of 5.5 billion euros. The gross profit margin of all three is more than 10%, BMW 17.6%, Mercedes-Benz 12.7%, Audi 10.7%.

Sales fell slightly, profits soared, what is this operation? It seems that the lack of core, the epidemic, the war, and the defective supply chain have not affected the BBA's making money. And the new energy business is a money-losing game, which is the same as most new forces.

The average price of bicycles rose by more than 15%, and the profit of bicycles rose by more than 10%, which may achieve the above "volume decline and profit increase" effect. It is more expensive to sell, and the product is more scarce and more sought-after. "The luxury concept plays well, the shareholder dad rest assured me", it's as simple as that.

Shadow emperors are all shadow emperors

This can't be blamed on the BBA playing electric a bit slack, more like having to deal with moral correctness. In the past two years, the slogans have been shouted loudly, and the speed of advancement has been clumsy.

To say that it is completely careless is indeed a bit unjust. When BMW launched the first generation of i3, it is now 3 years before the new domestic head forces will establish a brand, and Tesla is still relying on the expensive roadster to support the scene. However, the i3's 160 km endurance of the small short leg is still "taught to be a man" by Tesla with a range of 395 km. Although the market positioning of the two is completely different, people cannot convince themselves why luxury cars with driving performance as the signature are made as soon as they are electric.

Now BMW Brilliance's i3 endurance has reached NEDC 526 km, is there a market noise? Almost nothing. Pure electricity of more than 300,000 yuan is now striving for 600 to 700 kilometers.

BMW's SEVERAL CEOs, Rescheff advocated pure electricity, Krueger pushed PHEV, and Chiptzer was pure electricity, PHEV + hydrogen fuel cells. What a combination of gods and immortals.

Chiptzer also said that "we cannot rely too much on a few countries to focus on electric vehicles, and the market for internal combustion engines is still vast." This is also different from the tone of the previous goodwill for the Chinese market.

The market has scolded the oil to electricity to the point of dog blood, but bmw's current electric products are all oil to electricity. The real pure electric platform will not be launched until 2025.

Mercedes-Benz does not intend to build a special electric production line, on this amount, arrange collinear production, which is called "flexible production". However, Mercedes-Benz stopped developing PHEV last year and also stopped selling 48V mixes. The reason is that Mercedes-Benz knows that its P2 strong mix can't get a hand, and the 48V + 1.5T engine combination is even more scolded. Mercedes-Benz later also felt that playing small engines did not match its own brand positioning, and simply canceled.

Audi is "all in", but the difference between the other two biggest features - autonomous driving research and development, at the group level. In this regard, Audi changed from driving to sitting in a car, handing over the key chips and how to overwhelm the opponent.

The three companies have promised investment in electric power by 2025, although they are all tens of billions of euros, but it is good to listen. Human resources training, dismissal of old employees, new production lines, investment in super battery factories... All kinds of expenses are stuffed into the electric strategy, which can appear a lot. The main purpose, I am afraid, is to let the regulator and the public see their sincerity.

Only the effortlessness of the film emperor level can appear to be extra-powerful.

Public opinion has always accused the BBA of being "lagging behind" in its electrification strategy. The BBA said, yeah, and then what? The BBA believes that the penetration rate of electrification has not yet reached the inflection point of profitability. Before that, you can do some research and development, supply chain investment and small-scale product launch. In recent years, it has basically been a skill cooldown time, and even the "forward shake and chant" has not yet arrived.

The BBA's wishful thinking is that once you get on the volume, you will make money. First fat is not fat, and then fat overwhelms Kang. There is nothing wrong with doing this, the key lies in controlling the rhythm, first accumulating production factors and mastering technology. In this process, the organizational structure and human resources are straightened out.

But there are unpredictable factors. If an OEM who focuses on luxury electric vehicles becomes the climate during this time, the BBA is likely to regret "putting too much". But there has to be a candidate, Tesla? Increasingly keen on cheap volume cars; BYD? Change the name first; Gaohe? Poof, which one.

Weigh and weigh, none of them can hit. In this case, can you still blame the BBA electric for not working hard?