The 1st of every month is still a day when a bunch of new energy vehicle companies compete for sales.
Even April Fool's Day cannot affect the release of data from a group of anxious car companies.
Source: Car companies
Aeon's monthly sales exceeded 20,000 units for the first time, reaching 20,317 units, surpassing all new car manufacturers and temporarily leading the way.
Among the new forces, the sales growth rate of various car companies tends to slow down, and the former head group Wei Xiaoli is tending to differentiate at the level of monthly sales. Xiaopeng became a regular champion, weilai stagnated, first surpassed by Nezha, and this month was also surpassed by zero run.
Among the new force car companies, the scale of 10,000 vehicles / month is no longer the division standard of the head group, 15,000 vehicles / month is about to become the entry threshold of the head group, if you want to get the head position in the whole industry car companies, you need to sell at least 20,000 vehicles / month.
New brands of traditional car companies such as Extreme Krypton Lantu have not seen a significant improvement in sales at present.
Although the overall sales data of new energy vehicle companies is still rising, the hidden worries behind sales have quietly emerged. The general increase in price prices across the industry, combined with the lack of chips and the impact of the epidemic, will affect sales in the next few months.
01
The price increase has not yet affected sales
The sales volume of various new energy vehicle companies in March increased month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating that the price increase factor has not yet affected sales.
Due to the lack of cores, batteries, epidemics and other factors, most of the vehicles delivered by car companies in March were ordered around the Spring Festival, or even before New Year's Day, which was caused by the consumption inertia of the sharp increase in sales of new energy vehicles in 2021.
Leading car companies such as Eian, Xiaopeng and Nezha generally have a car pick-up cycle of more than one month, and the pick-up cycle of some models is as long as 3 months. Extremely special models, such as Xiaopeng P5 lithium iron phosphate version, Extreme Kr 001 and so on, even the pick-up cycle is as long as 6-8 months.
However, the price increases of various car companies in March will inevitably have an impact on sales in the following months.
Affected by the price increase of raw materials, especially power batteries, car companies generally raised the price of vehicles in March, but also reserved a buffer period, during which they were scheduled not to be affected by price increases.
Under the temptation of a price increase of a few thousand yuan and tens of thousands of yuan, each company has collected a large number of orders during the buffer period, and there are rumors on the Internet that the daily order volume of a new force car company has reached 3,000.
Car companies with a large number of orders will be busy delivering orders in the next few months, and it is not expected that sales will decline significantly.
02
The price increase will inevitably be transmitted to the sales level
In April, car companies may face a second price increase.
Since the beginning of this year, the price of power batteries has increased significantly, according to the data of "Xinzhu Lithium Battery", the average price of square ternary power batteries reached 0.84 yuan / Wh in March this year, and the average price of square iron lithium batteries reached 0.74 yuan / Wh, compared with the middle of October 2021, the square three yuan rose by 0.18 yuan / Wh, and the square iron lithium rose by 0.22 yuan / Wh, up 27% and 40% respectively.
However, the upward trend of power batteries has not stopped, and some analysts believe that the price of power batteries will not fall in the short term, and it is more likely to continue to rise. Car companies that have already increased their prices will face a second price increase.
Although Tesla has raised the price many times this year, BYD has raised the price twice, but due to the huge sales scale of the two car companies, the ability to control the industrial chain and the market, the impact of price increases on sales is limited, but for most companies, the impact of the secondary price increase on sales will be extremely obvious.
Especially for car companies with A00 models as the main sales model, the cost of power batteries accounts for a relatively large proportion of the vehicle cost, and the price increase has the greatest impact on A00-class cars. For example, The Hongguang MINI EV, the price rose by 4,000 yuan at a time, and the starting price has been raised from 28,800 yuan to 32,800 yuan, an increase of 14%, and the cost performance has dropped significantly.
In the same class, the price increase of Chery New Energy Ant, Dongfeng Fengguang MINI EV, Zero Run T03 and other models is basically the same, and the price increase is about 4,000 yuan, and the decline in the cost performance of the vehicle is also more obvious.
For the A00-class car that is already sold at low profit, the rise in battery costs will not only affect consumers' willingness to buy, but also the manufacturer's willingness to produce, after the Great Wall Euler's black cat and white cat models have been suspended.
In the case of high power battery costs and may even continue to rise in prices, the sales volume of various car companies may change dramatically. However, in general, the price increase has less impact on car companies that mainly sell high-priced models, and has a greater impact on new power car companies that mainly sell low-priced models.
03
The threshold for the First Group is raised
Now to mix to the head car companies, the threshold is getting higher and higher.
In fact, Eian has been plagued by capacity problems until the upgrading of production lines during the Spring Festival, and the production capacity problems have been alleviated, and finally sales exceeded 20,000 units in March.
GAC Aeon completed the expansion of production
At present, Aeon has a total of 4 models on sale, namely AION LX Plus, V Plus, S Plus and Y, which did not increase in the price increase in March, the current closing situation is good, the competitiveness of the four models is strong, and it is expected that in the next few months, Aion will continue to maintain a sales scale of 20,000 vehicles / month.
It is worth noting that in March, the security stock reform made substantial progress, and three state-owned background investors jointly injected 2.566 billion yuan. Next, Aeon will accelerate its efforts in capacity layout and new model research and development, and Aeon will launch a supercar model with an acceleration time of 0 to 100km/h of 1.9 seconds this year to further enrich the product lineup.
At the same time, Aeon has been building a small-scale power battery production line to carry out power battery self-production attempts, so it is expected to improve the control ability in terms of power battery costs, and grasp the first-mover advantage in the next wave of power battery price increases.
Among the three car companies in Wei Xiaoli, Xiaopeng's sales rose significantly this month, especially the P7 model, with single-month sales exceeding 9,000 vehicles, a new high. At present, the three models that Xiaopeng is selling, P7, P5 and G3, the price range is between 150,000 and 400,000 yuan, the layout is relatively clear, and the order situation is good.
Xiaopeng P5 model, a large number of orders were collected in the early stage, of which the lithium iron phosphate battery version of Xiaopeng P5 has insufficient production capacity, a large number of ordering consumers failed to pick up the car, it is expected that after the production capacity is improved, the conversion rate of Xiaopeng P5 orders collected in the early stage will maintain a high level.
Xiaopeng G9
The upcoming Xiaopeng G9 model, positioned in a smart luxury 5-seater mid-level SUV, will have a prominent performance in intelligent assisted driving, and is expected to be priced at more than 350,000 yuan.
Nezha Automobile has been in the head group of the new forces for many consecutive months, and this month it once again surpassed the ideal and became the third place of the new forces car companies, which proves that the overall operation of Nezha Automobile is good. At present, there are two models on sale in Nezha, V Pro and UPro, with a price range of 60,000-170,000 yuan, and the price range is low, which is easily affected by the price increase of power batteries.
In terms of new cars, the Nezha S, which uses Huawei's high-end assisted driving kit, is positioned as a coupe model and is expected to be delivered by the end of this year, before which the V Pro and U Pro will still be the main sales models.
Ideal Auto currently has only one ideal ONE model on sale, priced at 350,000 yuan. The new car Ideal L9 will be launched in mid-April, with a pre-price of 450,000-500,000 yuan, and is expected to officially open delivery in the summer, and there will be a model priced between ONE and L9 at the end of this year.
Ideal L9
Due to the ideal automotive product route adhering to plug-in extended range hybridization and the high price, it is expected that the impact of rising power battery costs on the ideal ONE is limited.
Zero-run car sales exceeded 10,000 units in March, and the C11 model has begun to gradually increase in volume, and has begun to upgrade many OTA iterations. However, due to the fact that the overall sales volume of the zero-run brand is still small, the conduction effect brought about by the rising cost of power batteries has a greater impact on the sales terminal, and the overall price increase of the C11 model is more obvious.
In the current sales structure of zero-run, the sales volume of the A00-class car T03 accounts for a relatively large proportion, and whether it can continue to maintain such a scale of sales after the price increase will be a test for the zero-run operation team.
The C01, a new zero-run car, is expected to be released in the second quarter, but in the case of high power battery costs, whether the C01 can continue the C11's cost-effective route is not yet known.
Weilai or is not afraid of price increases of car companies, on the one hand, the price of the vehicle is higher, the cost of power batteries is more tolerant, on the other hand, the use of BaaS power replacement sales model, power battery costs have been eliminated in the car price, so Weilai so far there is no direct price increase plan, but the plan to replace the price increase.
NIO's current ES8, ES6, and EC6 models have been on the market for a long time and their market attractiveness has declined, so sales have remained at about 10,000 units per month in the recent period. However, NIO plans to release the 2022 models of ES8, ES6 and EC6 in May, upgrade the smart car machine system chip, increase the price of the vehicle, and also release a new model ES7. With the renovation of old cars, as well as the opening of new cars ET7, and the opening of deliveries of ET5 and ES7 in the second half of the year, IT is expected that NIO's sales will rise steadily this year.
04
The ranking pattern of new power car companies is about to be reshaped
With the delivery of new cars and the change in the cost of power batteries, the ranking pattern of the sales rankings of new power car companies will also be reshaped.
Since Wei Xiaoli began to release last month's sales data on the 1st of each month, Wei Xiaoli's three car companies have been occupying the top three positions in the sales list of new car companies. However, with the sudden rise of Nezha and zero running, the competitive pattern of the sales rankings of new forces car companies has undergone great changes.
First, the overall sales volume has risen, the threshold of the First Group has risen, and the monthly sales of 10,000 vehicles are no longer enough to stabilize at the head.
The second is that the trend of the number of models on sales has begun to appear, and the new energy vehicle market is quietly changing from a buyer's market to a seller's market, so car companies with a large number of models have begun to occupy a more obvious advantage, and the more models there are, the greater the overall sales.
The third is that the power battery and chip supply chains have a greater impact on sales, and the impact of the lack of single components on vehicle sales has been reflected in the sales list in some months.
On the whole, starting from the second quarter of this year, the monthly sales of various new forces car companies will open up the gap, and the sales curve of each car company will see obvious differences.
Although the overall market situation is still under the upward trend, the growth rate of various car companies will diverge from the second quarter.
Starting in the second half of this year, the new energy vehicles of traditional car companies will be listed on a large scale, and the new power car companies that have not been able to achieve sales moats before this time will become more and more difficult in the future.
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