Intelligent World 2030: Beyond imagination, create the future to predict the future

The reproduction of human civilization stems from the continuous exploration of new things and the pursuit of new worlds that could not be touched in the past, but manpower eventually has limits, and many unknown mysteries are far beyond human reach.

Because of this, we are terrified and resistant to new technologies, stemming from the unknown and a sense of panic about "getting out of control." Just like after the birth of cloud computing technology, the banking industry scorned it, when Internet finance swept the world, banks found themselves in a subversion crisis, and embraced the cloud.

The same is true of the process of industrial digitalization, which never depicts a straight line, but a spiraling curve. The alternation of peaks and troughs represents the process of technological innovation and imagination.

As Gai Gang, President of Huawei's ICT Strategy and Business Development Department, said, "The future is always outside the imagination, and the best way to predict the future is to create the future." "Therefore, Huawei will make connectivity and computing the two cornerstones of the future intelligent world, and continue to innovate on this basis to make the future known."

1

The "order of magnitude" challenge behind the technology is converging

Whether it's connectivity or computing, we're finding that there are many similarities in the challenges of technological development as we move towards 2030. First and foremost, it comes from the challenges of the "order of magnitude" jump.

At the network level, Gai Gang said that "by 2030, the number of global connections will increase by at least 10 times, from connecting tens of billions of people to connecting hundreds of billions of things, the Internet of Everything will become a reality." At the same time, with the advent of metaversms and holograms, the demand for bandwidth will also increase a hundredfold. ”

The challenge at the computing level may be even greater, Jiang Tao, vice president of Huawei's computing product line, said, "By 2030, the demand for computing power in the overall scene will increase by 100-1000 times." In order to cope with such demand, we will enter an era of 100Z-level computing power, while the general computing power will increase by 10 times to 3.3ZFlopS, while the AI computing power will reach 105ZFLOPS, and the global data volume will reach 1YB. ”

Obviously, more devices, more data, more new applications, require greater bandwidth bearer. Hundreds of times the pressure also drives the two major technological directions, constantly moving towards innovation and integration.

2

All innovations must serve productivity gains

The ultimate goal of technology is to serve the digital upgrading of the industry, to fall into the production scenario, to enter the business process, so whether it is connection or computing, it is necessary to create new productivity and improve production efficiency.

The "communication perception fusion" among the six key features of communication network 2030 represents the integration of wireless network and fixed network technology, and gradually brings new applications and new scenarios beyond the traditional and creates new productivity.

New scenarios such as vehicle-road collaboration of the Internet of Vehicles, ultra-low-altitude detection of drones and high-precision positioning of smart factories can be based on innovative technologies of wireless 5.5G and 6G, which will achieve centimeter-level positioning accuracy, millimeter-level imaging resolution and 100% geographical coverage. At the same time, in the field of optical fiber perception, the combination of ripple analysis of optical fiber vibration and artificial intelligence will also create a large number of new applications, such as burying optical fibers deep along oil and gas pipelines, optical fibers can accurately sense the faults of oil and gas pipelines while transmitting data, and can achieve meter-level positioning accuracy, and the signal acquisition rate and recognition accuracy will reach 99.9%.

Diversity computing, on the other hand, has the opportunity to dramatically increase productivity. We know that in the context of the big explosion of data, the traditional von Neumann architecture will face bottlenecks in terms of computing power, IO, and network. The traditional CPU-centric computing architecture is also facing improvements.

Jiang Tao said, "By expanding the board-level bus into a DC bus, Huawei can realize the four-in-one computing power, memory, and network IO protocol, and can extend the characteristics of high bandwidth and low latency from the smoothness of the board level to the data center, so as to gradually realize new computing architectures such as symmetric computing, flood-load computing, and memory-computing integration." "The change in computing architecture has also brought significant productivity improvements, and it is expected that by 2025, the computing performance of a typical HPC+AI scenario is expected to be improved by 10 times."

If every technological upgrade represents new productivity and productivity, we believe that the technological revolution will be smoother and smoother.

3

"Endogenous safety" is integrated into every technological innovation

For technological innovation, an interesting phenomenon: the more innovative the enterprise, the more it relies on emerging technologies, the more security risks it will face. And security risks are like dominoes, and the deviation of one link is easy to cause the collapse of the whole world. Today, new security risks are breeding because new technologies such as cloud computing, big data, and the Internet of Things continue to open the boundaries.

Therefore, the future of any technology is not surprisingly integrated with the two words of safety. In particular, network connectivity and security are the relationship between collaborative innovation.

Intelligent World 2030 predicts that the number of global connections will reach 200 billion in 2030, 90% of enterprises will adopt multi-cloud, and will enter the era of Yaobyte data. The communication network will connect everything down and up to multiple clouds, carrying a large number of key data of enterprises. The demand for communication networks will not only be secure, but also trustworthy.

Therefore, Huawei proposes a full-scenario security and credibility framework to carry out key technological innovations in endogenous security and native trustworthiness. "We predict that by 2030, 100% of new communications networks will use endogenous and secure network technologies. More than 50% of the new networks will use native trusted technologies such as converged blockchain and private computing. Guy gang said.

Valuablely, endogenous security is not only the direction of the development of network technology, but also one of the directions of the development of computing technology. Jiang Tao said, "In the future, computational security will become an endogenous capability of a system that runs through the entire life cycle of data. We expect that in 2026, in the field of digital identity, there will be a globally recognized consensus algorithm, and the performance of homomorphic encryption will be increased by 1,000 times. In addition, with the popularity of AI applications, the security and credibility of AI computing will become more and more important. At the same time, with the emergence of new computing paradigms, it is also necessary to build a new security system and architecture, and security will be integrated into new computing architectures such as carrier network computing, diversified computing, and peer-to-peer computing. ”

In fact, security has long risen to the forefront of the entire digital system, which is a global perspective, from the connection to computing, and the endogenous security features at the same time represent the transcendent position of security in the 2030 intelligent world.

4

Low-carbon green should fly with innovation on both wings

When it comes to the time point of 2030, it is impossible to ignore that this year is a key year for China to achieve "carbon peak". Therefore, the vision of the intelligent world 2030 and low-carbon green must have a close relationship.

In fact, in the past many years, computing technology has stood on the "opposite side" of green. Because the construction and development of data centers themselves means huge energy consumption challenges. Relevant data shows that in the past 10 years, 60% of the TCO in data centers has been spent on electricity.

To calculate the carbon reduction and green of the industry, it is necessary to move towards green intensive construction. For example, the East And West Computing Project has released a hub plan for the national integrated big data center, and coordinated the deployment of eight major hubs and four major clusters, which requires a large number of green energy technology empowerment.

At the same time, green and low carbon is also one of the six key characteristics of communication networks. Communication network traffic will increase by at least 100 times in 2030, and it is almost impossible to achieve a breakthrough in single-point technology to achieve no increase or less energy consumption. This requires systematic improvement of network energy efficiency from the four dimensions of equipment, site, network, and operation.

Gai Gang said, "This includes a large number of green innovative technologies, such as device-level co-encapsulation optics, site-level form reconstruction, network-level energy-saving routing, and operation-level AI automatic sleep, etc., through theoretical innovation, architecture innovation and software algorithm innovation, to achieve a hundred times the energy efficiency of communication networks." ”

Of course, looking forward to 2030, we may still need to face the challenge of uncertainty such as black swans, but only technological innovation is the most certain factor among many uncertainties. It is also the best way for us to predict the future by creating the future.