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The "banknote ability" is about to fail, how will the "new" car-making people survive?

The "banknote ability" is about to fail, how will the "new" car-making people survive?

Since 2018, the new car-making trend emerging in the domestic auto market has not stopped, and the entire industry has shown a lively scene like a marquee. However, with the emergence of a message in recent days, such a scene is about to be broken.

It is reported that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently invited some car companies to conduct an internal survey, and one of the important discussion contents attracted everyone's attention: the OEM policy will change from a single qualification requirement in the past to a double qualification requirement, that is, not only the FOUNDry enterprises need to have production qualifications, but also the entrusting party. The policy may be officially promulgated in the near future.

OEM model, so that new forces have "banknote ability"

The sudden change in wind direction surprised everyone, and it should be known that until the news was released, the industry's consistent attitude was to encourage new forces to produce products in the form of OEM.

Before the emergence of "production qualifications", car companies that wanted to launch new cars had to apply to relevant agencies first, so private car companies at that time could only be attached to state-owned enterprises. Until the release of the "Announcement of Vehicle Manufacturers and Products" in 2001, the private car companies selected for the "Announcement" began to be able to justify the construction of cars, and Geely became the "first person to eat crabs", opening a golden age of independent brands blooming in the next 20 years.

In 2018, in the face of the temptation of the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market, a large number of new car-making forces took the stage. In order to better stimulate the vitality of the industry and reduce the entry threshold of car companies, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Administrative Measures for the Access of Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and Products. It clearly encourages R&D and production capacity cooperation between road motor vehicle manufacturers, and allows road motor vehicle manufacturers that meet the specified conditions to entrust processing and production. The promulgation of the "Measures" officially clarified the legal status of OEM production.

In July 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) once again issued the Decision on Amending the Regulations on the Administration of Access to New Energy Vehicle Manufacturers and Products, which removed the relevant content about "design and development capabilities" and further lowered the threshold for car manufacturing.

The "banknote ability" is about to fail, how will the "new" car-making people survive?

The left-handed "Measures" and the right-hand "Regulations" are regarded by the new car-making forces as a shortcut to quickly achieve mass production and cut into the new energy vehicle track. Most of them have neither a production base nor a production qualification, but by entrusting the new car to the traditional car company OEM production and gradually gained a foothold in the market, Weilai chose Jianghuai and Xiaopeng to entrust Haima, which are representative success cases.

According to incomplete statistics, since 2020, the new car-making forces that have newly entered the market, in addition to Xiaomi's explicit self-built factories, the vast majority of others have listed OEM as the most preferred.

For the new forces of car manufacturing, the OEM model can first of all not have to personally solve the production qualifications, and secondly, it can directly use the mature production system and technical resources of the foundry, without the hard work of "pregnant October", and can easily realize the dream of car manufacturing with "banknote ability".

From wide to strict, resource optimization is the correct solution

Since the OEM model is widely popular, why does the state still tighten the mouth of THE FOUNDRY?

Industry insiders believe that the OEM model can certainly help new forces quickly pass customs, but there are still various inferior roots.

The most intuitive thing is that taking Hyundai Kia's refusal to work for Apple as an example, high-quality traditional car companies are not willing to reduce their value to become the foundries of new car-making forces that are "one generation shorter" than themselves, which will not only affect the brand image of traditional car companies themselves, but also cause waste of resources. After all, the data shows that although the overall domestic passenger car production capacity is in a state of excess, the average line of capacity utilization rate of mainstream car companies such as Honda and Volkswagen remains above 80%.

In other words, the car companies that currently work for the new car-making forces, such as Haima, Zotye, Mahayana, BAIC Yinxiang, etc., are all weak roles on the edge of the industry themselves. New car-making forces that have just entered the auto market cooperate with such weak car companies, how can product quality and consistency be ensured? For this problem, Shen Hui, the founder of WM, once said bluntly: "If I choose OEM production, I am afraid that I will not be able to sleep every day." ”

The "banknote ability" is about to fail, how will the "new" car-making people survive?

Moreover, for the new forces, the OEM model means that the production costs, supply chain management, quality control and other links are handed over to others, and they do not hold the bottom card of production qualifications, which is equivalent to handing over their lifeblood to others.

It is true that Weilai is regarded as the most successful model of the foundry model, but it has achieved factory equipment, supply chain management, quality control, etc. by itself. Even, in order to cope with the owner's "buckle" behavior of Jachuai, Weilai also spent 200 million yuan to build a trial production line in Nanjing to dispel the outside world's doubts about the quality of JAC. How many new forces can achieve this level in the entire industry?

From the perspective of industry, there are rules to follow in the strictness of OEM.

According to the data of Tianyancha, as of now, the number of new energy vehicle manufacturing enterprises in the mainland has exceeded 200, of which 150 were registered between 2018 and 2020 and with the entry threshold lowered. However, from the perspective of actual market sales, more than half of the current market share is still concentrated in the head car companies, and in the words of Xiao Yaqing, minister of the Ministry of Labor and Information Technology, the market is crowded, but it shows a scattered and small situation.

The gap between the new car-making forces camp is even more obvious, in addition to the first few monthly sales of more than 10,000, most of them are still stuck in the scale of hundreds of vehicles. What's more, for example, Byton, spent 3 years and smashed 8.4 billion to build a car, and Sailin spent 6 billion to hold out the old age...

The brand is sloppy, the market is scattered and chaotic, and facts have proved that the low threshold for car manufacturing can only bring temporary prosperity, which is not beneficial to the long-term healthy development of the industry.

Pockets tightened, worried about who?

Whether the new OEM policy can finally land or not still needs to wait for the official release of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, but once it lands, it means that the "pocket" that has been released since 2018 is about to be tightened, and the new car-making forces also need to be vigilant and prepare in advance.

For the new forces that entered the car manufacturing field in the early days such as Weilai, Xiaopeng and Ideal, financing and market sales have reached a certain scale. Xiaopeng currently has 4 major production bases with a production capacity of more than 100,000 vehicles; Ideal has taken over the Shunyi factory of Beijing Hyundai and obtained passenger car production qualifications very early by acquiring 100% of the equity of Lifan Automobile; as for Weilai, backed by the Hefei government, it can be solved by acquisition.

Among the several car companies that have just entered the game in 2021, Xiaomi has made it clear that it will cooperate with the Beijing Municipal Government to build a factory in Shunyi, and Jidu is backed by Baidu and Geely, and it is also not worried. The biggest impact may also be the group car, box, stone, self-traveler and other "Mengxin" who have not yet had time to "get on the car".

Although the 2 new cars under the box car have been unveiled, but the information on production qualifications has not been announced, it is not ruled out that the mass production progress will be affected by the policy; group cars, stones, self-traveling homes, etc., the current business model is not clear, and the new deal will become a "roadblock" in their car-making process.

The "banknote ability" is about to fail, how will the "new" car-making people survive?

Judging from the current rhythm of the relevant departments approving production qualifications and issuing licenses, there has been an increasingly stringent trend, and the group cars and boxes may only be able to abandon the OEM model and achieve mass production through the acquisition of other car companies with production qualifications, but this means that it must spend twice as much money, energy and time as the predecessors, and may not be able to achieve it smoothly. The higher and higher threshold for building cars may also be a kind of well-intentioned dissuasion for them.

Of course, for such new forces as Gaohe, which is founded by Dongfeng Yueda Kia, and light orange era, which is founded by BAIC Yinxiang, it is not possible to relax. The details of the policy are not yet clear, and if you want to go on without worry, you must find a way to obtain production qualifications as soon as possible.

In this regard, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, also believes that from a long-term strategic point of view, obtaining qualifications and building factories is the ultimate solution. Moreover, independent qualification factory production can also obtain fixed assets such as land and plants, and after the expansion of the scale of enterprise assets, it is more convenient to use these as collateral for loan financing, and the anti-risk ability of enterprises can also be improved.

Who is the biggest beneficiary in the face of change? The answer is undoubtedly the consumer. The improvement of the foundry threshold can force car companies to improve their comprehensive strength and help eliminate inferior products from the source, so as to purify the market and benefit consumption.

For the automotive industry, which is currently too hot, the tightening of the OEM policy is also equivalent to a cooling or reshuffling, which helps to solve the embarrassing situation of a large number of car companies but small and scattered, from "quantity" to "quality", which is also a responsible performance for the industry.

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