Author: Gao Hao
The book of Revelation, the last and most important book of the New Testament of the Bible, records visions seen from the island of Patmos, declaring that darkness is over and dawn is coming.
The first quarter of this year is about to pass, in the era of the epidemic, the automotive industry, which is most affected by the domestic and international situations, has not unexpectedly appeared some "accidents" - outrageous price increases for electric vehicles, factory shutdowns, which although the improvements that have effectively turned the tide, but more objective factors that are powerless to change have led to general pessimism in the industry.
Every individual is looking forward to getting on the right track, and people struggling to know whether these "visions" are the darkness before dawn, or the precursors to continued deterioration. Where will 2022 go?
Tram prices have gone up
The five consecutive increases in oil prices in the beginning of the year have caused headaches for oil truck owners, and the days of new energy vehicles are not much better. Since March, affected by the price increase of battery raw materials, nearly 20 new energy vehicle companies have announced a sharp price increase, and the new energy that should have been "dipped" in oil prices was suddenly hit by a blow after experiencing the scenery of 1-2 months.
This year is the last year of subsidies, the lack of core storms still exists, consumers have been hard to cultivate the acceptance of new energy suddenly ushered in a crisis, and the most frightening thing comes from the lack of optimism about the future.
In the first quarter, there were many deliveries that were already backlogged orders years ago, coupled with rising car prices, "Renqi" believes that the sales of new energy vehicles in the second quarter are difficult to achieve a month-on-month increase, and the sales target of 5.5 million new energy vehicles in 2022 is also full of suspense.
At the moment when the lack of cores, the rise of raw materials, and the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war, price increases have become the main theme of the automotive industry, and cannot be reversed in the short term. In 2022, consumers should be prepared to take the price increase of the car as a normalization, and the main engine factory should strengthen its ability to integrate resources, otherwise it will be difficult to survive.
The plant was shut down
Since January this year, several rounds of the epidemic have caused several automobile cities in Tianjin, Jilin and Shanghai to stop production.
Taking the FAW Group in Changchun as an example, since March 13, the group's factories involving Toyota, Volkswagen, Audi, Hongqi, and Besturn brands have been suspended for a period of 4 days, and according to the annual production capacity, this round of shutdown alone will bring nearly 50,000 production losses. As early as January, FAW Toyota's Tianjin plant stopped production for several days, which directly led to a sharp decline of 20% year-on-year new car sales in January.
On March 16, Tesla's Shanghai plant underwent a two-day shutdown (about 4,000 units of production), and as a reference, the plant produced 56,500 new cars in February, of which 33,300 were exported overseas.
In order to minimize losses, FAW Group has carried out a series of self-help measures, which provide reference significance for the industry. FAW Group coordinated with the Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, prejudged procurement in advance, formulated a daily bottleneck resource meeting system, and dynamically controlled and eliminated the risks in the production and supply of FAW-Volkswagen in a timely manner. At the same time, FAW-Volkswagen has formulated a hierarchical control strategy to clarify the profit improvement path and make every effort to ensure that the profit target is achieved.
Faw-Volkswagen Audi Sales Division adopted the home office model, and in the first week, through the online conference channel, opened a comprehensive online discussion of core management, taking user operation and digital intelligence transformation and upgrading as the starting point to form a "141" digital intelligence mechanism and system guarantee.
The epidemic has entered the third year, compared with the initial immaturity, some car companies have been able to find their own online management mechanism in continuous exploration, find the key to breaking the constraints in the short-term "shutdown", and achieve the goal set at the beginning of the year on the only subjective behavior that can be determined on the unknown road.
In 2022, the epidemic will continue to affect each manufacturer, and the mentality to deal with the challenge has divided them into different shapes.
Volume fell and rose
The first quarter is the season when European car companies released last year's financial reports, the most concerned is still BBA, from the perspective of their respective operating conditions, due to the epidemic, the impact of new forces and worry about the survival of these traditional car companies is obviously unfounded.
In 2021, the net profits of Audi Group, BMW Group and Mercedes-Benz Group were 5.5 billion euros (an increase of 114% year-on-year), 12.4 billion euros (an increase of 223% year-on-year), and 14.1 billion euros (an increase of 255% year-on-year), respectively.
The initial results of the drastic new energy transformation are an important factor in BBA's substantial profitability. Last year, Audi sold 80,000 pure electric models, an increase of 57.5% year-on-year; BMW's new energy model sales reached 328,000 units, an increase of 70% year-on-year; Mercedes-Benz new energy models sold 270,000 units, an increase of 64% year-on-year. The high profits of electric vehicles have made multinational car companies earn a lot of money, and behind the eye-catching achievements are worth playing with more Chinese car companies.
For independent brands, high-end electrification of product sequences, providing more value-added services, and increasing investment in product research and development can become a good medicine for the high-quality development of enterprises, and get rid of the embarrassing situation of doing hard work for suppliers as soon as possible.
In the environment of shrinking overall demand, independent brands rooted in China have even more advantages than BBA in tapping the needs of Chinese people. Taking Xiaopeng with comprehensive product coverage as an example, the investment in product research and development has made it taste sweet, although the Q4 financial report has not yet been announced (expected to be on the evening of March 28), but the official estimate of 7.1-75 billion yuan. Looking back at the past revenue and gross profit margin, Xiaopeng is also steadily rising.
The rise of new energy has provided a stage for independent brands to compete with traditional giants, and opportunities slip away and often do not come back.
Joint venture oscillation
In February this year, the BMW Group's contract to increase its shareholding ratio in BMW Brilliance to 75% came into effect, and in terms of contribution, BMW even left some face for Brilliance, and everyone knew how much "Brilliance" was left in the four words "BMW Brilliance".
Dongfeng Group, which had said that it would not withdraw from the Dongfeng Yueda Kia project, also relaxed, and Dongfeng Yueda Kia changed its name to Kia Motors.
Beijing Hyundai has become an exception, baiqi investment and hyundai motor each increased their capital by about 3 billion yuan, and the equity ratio between the two sides remained 50:50. Although the share ratio has not changed, the industry generally hopes that Beijing Hyundai, after the capital injection, can change the status quo of continuous decline in sales in China 20 years after its establishment. No matter which of the two sides has the right to speak, for consumers, there is a new generation of models that are in line with the world to choose, and only then can they have the motivation to consider modern brands again.
2022 has passed 1/4, surprising big news is emerging in an endless stream, forecasting has become a very easy thing to punch in the face, under the tight rhythm, the first quarter is slightly negative. 2022 is destined to have many unknowns, whether the epidemic will end "unexpectedly" this year, whether the car market will get better and better, under the inspiration of the first quarter, everyone has their own answer.