Wen | Li Haoxian
As we all know, because of the hot sales, the queue delivery time of BYD DM-i models takes up to several months, but at this year's "two sessions", automobile overcapacity has been mentioned many times by the deputies of the National People's Congress, and it is obvious that "overcapacity" has been serious to a certain extent.
On the one hand, waiting for the car, on the other hand, there is overcapacity, what kind of ice and fire double day is the car market experiencing?
According to the statistics of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, by the end of 2021, the total production capacity of passenger cars in the country will be 40.89 million units, and the capacity utilization rate will be 52.47%. Although it is 4% higher than the 48.45% in 2020, nearly half of the capacity is still idle, in the range of serious overcapacity.
It should also be noted that among the passenger car companies in this statistics, there are a total of 86 sales, and the total production capacity of these enterprises is 37.038 million vehicles, which also means that 3.85 million production capacity of other non-sales companies is completely idle, which may belong to those car companies that have collapsed but have not completely collapsed, such as Brilliance, Zotye, Sichuan Automobile mustang and the like.
Image source: Multiplying Association
And a closer look will find that the degree of utilization of these production capacities by car companies has obvious head effects.
Among the 86 enterprises with sales in this statistics, there are 16 companies with more than 600,000 vehicles, and the total sales of these enterprises reach 16.6106 million vehicles, accounting for 77.42% of the total sales; the total production capacity is 20.39 million vehicles, accounting for nearly 50% of the total production capacity, and the average capacity utilization rate is 81.03%, which is in a reasonable range.
The total sales of 22 companies with sales of more than 200,000 vehicles accounted for 88.86% of the total sales, leaving less than 13% of the market share for the other 64 companies; 29 companies sold less than 10,000 vehicles, and the production capacity of these enterprises accounted for 13% of the total, while the sales accounted for only 0.46% of the total, and the average capacity utilization rate was only 2.02%.
In layman's terms, it is "fat fat death, thin thin death". There is no doubt that behind this phenomenon is the competition and transformation of the automobile industry in recent years.
A few examples. Before 2021, GAC Toyota will have three vehicle production lines in Nansha with an annual design capacity of 600,000 vehicles. However, in 2020, GAC Toyota produced 760,000 new vehicles in the whole year, and the capacity utilization rate was as high as 127%, indicating that the production line was in overload operation. From the data point of view, in 2021, there are 11 car companies with a capacity utilization rate of more than 100%, which is in a state of short supply.
On the other hand, DPCA has a total of four production bases in China, with a planned annual production capacity of more than 1 million vehicles, far exceeding that of GAC Toyota. However, considering that the total wholesale sales of DPCA Automobile in 2021 will only be 100,500 units, this means that nearly 90% of the production capacity of DPCA automobiles is idle. From the data point of view, there are more than 36 car companies with a capacity utilization rate of less than 20% like Shenlong.
In the context of uneven distribution of production capacity, the best solution is to transfer idle production capacity to car companies in demand, on the one hand, it can improve the capacity utilization rate of the transferor and reduce costs, on the other hand, the buyer only needs to simply rebuild, and can quickly increase production capacity at a lower cost.
The above-mentioned DPCA has a similar move. It is reported that DPCA's Wuhan plant and Chengdu plant will be open to third parties to reduce costs by revitalizing idle capacity and improving capacity utilization, while the buyer is from Dongfeng Honda, which will use the plant to increase electric vehicle production capacity.
Last year, Beijing Hyundai resold its first plant in Shunyi, Beijing, to Ideal Motors. According to the relevant person in charge, Ideal Automobile will transform the factory into a pure electric vehicle intelligent manufacturing factory, with a total area of 270,000 square meters and a 60% utilization rate, maximizing the existing stock plant resources.
On February 8 this year, it was reported that after taking down the production bases of Hanteng, Hanlong and other Zotye systems, Linyi Zotye Automobile Base was also recently acquired by Great Wall Motors, and the total production capacity of Great Wall Motors will exceed 3 million vehicles per year.
Expansion is the main theme
But in fact, not all car companies are willing to increase production capacity by taking over. According to the data of the Association, there are still 10.46 million vehicles under construction capacity of enterprises that have already met the production qualifications.
Take the above-mentioned GAC Toyota as an example. On July 25, 2021, the first phase of GAC Toyota's new energy vehicle production capacity expansion project was officially put into operation in Nansha District, Guangzhou, with an expected release of production capacity of 200,000 units per year, while the second phase of the project is expected to be completed in 2022, also 200,000 units per year, and gac Toyota's production capacity will reach 1 million units per year after the expansion.
Of course, the most eager for production capacity is a number of new energy vehicle companies. Thanks to the new energy market dividend in 2021, there are 4 new energy vehicle companies with a capacity utilization rate of more than 100%, so that most of the capacity currently under construction is used to produce new energy vehicles.
First and foremost is Tesla. According to sources, Tesla plans to open a new factory in Shanghai as early as next month to double its production capacity to meet the growing demand for Tesla vehicles in the Chinese market and export markets. Once the new plant is fully operational, Tesla's expanded Shanghai plant will be able to produce up to 2 million vehicles a year.
For FAW Audi, the new energy plant jointly invested by both shareholders for 20.9 billion yuan will start construction in April. The project covers an area of 2.46 million square meters, with a planned annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles, and will produce three pure electric new energy models after completion.
In addition, last year, GAC Aeon achieved sales of 120,000 vehicles, exceeding the planned production capacity of 100,000 units at the plant, and the expansion of production is imminent. This year, the second phase of GAC Aean Intelligent Ecological Factory has been successfully put into operation, and the annual production capacity will be expanded to 200,000 units on the basis of the original 100,000 units.
As a new player, Xiaomi Automobile did not acquire Borgward's factory in Beijing as predicted by the media. According to the plan, Xiaomi Automobile will build a new vehicle plant with a cumulative annual output of 300,000 units in Beijing in two phases, and the first car will roll off the production line and achieve mass production in 2024.
A large part of the reason why the above-mentioned car companies do not consider buying "second-hand factories" is that their industrial chain and supply chain layout follow the "principle of proximity", and most of the supply chain and supporting facilities of GAC Toyota are in Guangzhou, and it is impossible to buy hyundai factories in Beijing, so most car companies will choose to expand near the base camp, and the cost of this is lower. Xiaomi is purely rich and willful, and is more inclined to build an industrial park of its own.
But then again, the production capacity of new energy vehicles is actually not as tight as imagined. In 2021, 3.326 million new energy passenger cars were sold, while the dedicated production capacity of new energy passenger cars has reached 5.695 million units, and the capacity utilization rate is 58.4%, which is not much higher than the market (52%).
This shows that even in the new energy industry, the head effect is also very obvious, for example, BAIC BJEV has a large number of idle production capacity.
Power batteries are also crazy
From another point of view, the rapid expansion of new energy vehicle production capacity means that the supporting power batteries behind it are also "rising". From the data point of view, the expansion of the power battery factory is not inferior to the main engine factory, or even more popular.
Taking BYD as an example, by the end of 2021, Fordy Battery has 16 power battery factories in the country put into production or under construction (at least 3 are still in talk), which is twice as much as its own automobile production base.
According to the data, in 2021, the overall planning capacity will be 135GWh, of which the usable capacity will be 80GWh. By 2023, the planned production capacity will exceed 400GWh, and the usable capacity will exceed 330GWh.
What is this concept? In 2021, the installed capacity of power batteries in the mainland will be about 155GWh, and the installed capacity of power batteries in the world will be about 300GWh. In other words, the capacity of Fudi batteries in 2023 can cover the installed capacity of global power batteries in 2021.
This is very terrible data, to know that on top of the Fordy battery there are giants such as the Ningde era, LG, panasonic, etc., and their existing production capacity or construction capacity will not be less than that of The Fordi battery.
Driven by new energy vehicles, it is understandable that power battery companies have seized the market and seized opportunities in order to seize the market, but the supply side has expanded so wildly that it has greatly exceeded the corresponding demand. After a round of reshuffling in a few years, there will inevitably be a bunch of idle capacity, just like the current car overcapacity.
Is this a bit contrary to the original intention of "carbon neutrality"? But we don't seem to have any good solutions, after all, the market has to leave the market to regulate.
For automobile overcapacity, if you have any good methods or ideas, you can discuss them together in the comments.