Recently, Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, was on the hot search.
At the 2022 China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum held on March 26, Chairman Zhu made a surprising statement, saying that in the next 3-5 years, 80% of China's fuel vehicle brands will be "shut down and turned" (that is, shut down, stop production, merge, and transform).
This sentence has landed on the front page of various media without any suspense, and even many financial media have also reprinted it, which can be described as an instant detonation of public opinion.
In fact, if I remember correctly, as early as the 2019 Guangzhou Auto Show, Chairman Zhu said something similar. He said at the time that it is not news that enterprises will shut down and turn around in three or five years, and there will be more companies that will shut down and transfer in the next three years, and eventually Chinese car companies will be "only five or six left".
I remember that the public opinion reaction at that time was even more intense than now, and on the whole, Chairman Zhu's words were not empty, because the reality of the situation has been slowly verified.
Over the years, we have seen the bankruptcy or near bankruptcy of Lifan, Phantom Speed, Zotye, Junma, Hanteng, Cheetah, Huatai, Bisu, Brilliance, Mustang, Borgward, Qoros, Southeast, Landwind, etc. in their own brands, entering or about to enter the ICU.
We have seen that the joint venture brands of Dongfeng Renault, Changan Suzuki, Dongfeng Yulon, GAC Acura, GAC FCA, etc. have either prepared or been rumored to withdraw from the Chinese auto market.
We also see byton, Bo County, Skyrim, Singularity, Aichi, Xinte, Future, Sailin, Ranger in the new forces... Born before they died, they did not even mass-produce a car to say goodbye to the Chinese market.
In addition to the brands mentioned above, Chairman Zhu also mentioned such a cruel reality. In 2021, there are 85 brands in the traditional fuel vehicle market, of which 34 brands have monthly sales of less than 1,000 units, and 9 brands have disappeared.
You and I both know that for an OEM, if the monthly sales volume is below a thousand units, it is doomed to lose money. In other words, it is actually a hard hold, and it is really a big unknown to live for a few years, depending on how much patience capital has to transfuse blood. If the backer is hard, it is better, and if it is weak, it is really like duckweed.
There is also heart-wrenching data from the statistics of the Multiplication Association. By the end of 2021, there are only 86 car companies with car sales statistics, and the capacity utilization rate is only 52.47%. In addition, there are 29 car companies with annual sales of less than 10,000 units, with total sales of 99,600 units in 2021 and a total production capacity of 4.922 million units, with an average capacity utilization rate of only 2.02%.
In other words, the vast majority of car companies' factories are idle. The motivation that is still struggling to insist on, some are still in the heart of the car dream, some are not willing to give up the qualifications in hand, and some are still want to fight again, the courage of the bicycle into a motorcycle.
So, combining the above contents and analyzing them, will you still scold 80% of Chinese fuel vehicle brands for "shutting down and turning" is selling anxiety? Do you still think that in the future, China's fuel vehicle companies will still be a hundred controversies? Would you still think that the people who warned were young and ignorant?
The Matthew effect of China's car market continues to intensify, which may really be the trend of the times! China, like Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea, does not need so many car brands.
After all, in 2021, the outbreak of new energy vehicles, retail sales actually reached 2.989 million units against the sky, a year-on-year increase of 169.1%. The penetration rate is even more gratifying, directly soaring to 14.8%. The cumulative market penetration rate in January-February 2022 was 17.9%, and the scale of production and sales was much higher than that of the same period last year.
And strong car companies have smelled the breath of market changes. Geely, Great Wall, Changan three first-line independent brands to accelerate the pace of hybrid models on the market, Chery such a second-line autonomy is also closely followed. Even joint venture car companies such as Honda and Toyota, which have always been scornful of electrification, and first-line luxury brands BBA can't sit still, trying to stretch their muscles in the era of electrification and steal the lost market.
All kinds of information indicate that in the next 3-5 years, China's fuel vehicle market will be more concentrated in resources, and the rule of two eights will be more prominent, that is, 20% of the head car companies will occupy 80% of the market. The new energy vehicle market will become the main battlefield of car companies, the track will be replaced, and a new campaign will soon be launched.