"New energy vehicles, especially passenger cars, will have a catastrophic overcapacity!" On April 1, Tan Xuguang, chairman of Weichai Group, said.
This statement is not alarmist. By the end of 2021, the national passenger car production capacity totaled 40.89 million units, and the capacity utilization rate was only 52.47%, of which 36 car companies had a capacity utilization rate of less than 20%. Despite the overall overcapacity, there are still 10.46 million units under construction on the mainland, and most of the capacity under construction is new energy vehicles.
In this regard, the relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission clearly proposed at the 8th China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum that vehicle enterprises should highlight the key layout, rely on the existing production base to continue to develop, and no longer add new production capacity distribution points before the existing base reaches a reasonable scale.
At present, the utilization of new energy vehicle production capacity in the mainland has shown a development trend of "the stronger the stronger, the weaker the weaker". The person in charge said that adhere to the national "chess game", focus on optimizing the industrial layout, the overall layout is the objective requirement for the high-quality development of the new energy automobile industry, we will respect the law of the market, in accordance with the law to strengthen window guidance, strengthen overall planning, optimize the industrial layout, and implement support policies.
◇◆Early warning
New energy vehicle production capacity "burst"
According to the statistics of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, by the end of 2021, the total production capacity of passenger cars in the country will be 40.89 million units, and the capacity utilization rate will only be 52.47%. Although it is 4 percentage points higher than 48.45% in 2020, it is still in the range of serious overcapacity. Among the 86 enterprises included in the statistics, there are 19 enterprises with a capacity utilization rate of more than 80%, of which 7 are new energy vehicle companies.
This set of data shows that the new energy vehicle market has driven the overall sales up, but the "head effect" is obvious, and the overall expansion of the production capacity plan far exceeds the actual demand.
As early as the end of 2020, the total production capacity of new energy vehicles in mainland China has reached 26.69 million units, but the market sales volume is only 1.367 million units. By 2021, new energy passenger vehicles will sell 3.326 million units, a fast growth rate, but the overall scale is still small.
In recent years, local governments have been scrambling to lay out new energy vehicle planning projects, whether it is existing production capacity or planned production capacity, they are competing in scale. For example, Guangzhou plans to produce more than 2 million new energy vehicles in the city by 2025, and Shanghai plans to produce more than 1.2 million new energy vehicles in 2025.
Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor and Changan Automobile plan to sell 3.65 million, 6 million and 4 million vehicles in 2025, respectively, of which 1.55 million, 3.2 million and 1.05 million new energy vehicles are planned to be sold in 2025.
Huge sales targets, naturally need production capacity to support, from the perspective of car companies, to seize the market, you need sufficient capacity layout. However, idle capacity means waste of resources, and excessive idleness means that the industry is in an unhealthy state.
In 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 5.5 million units, but compared with the existing and planned new production capacity, there will still be a large amount of idle capacity. The Association has long put forward an early warning that the automotive industry should solve the problem of overcapacity of traditional automobiles while also preventing overcapacity of new energy vehicles.
◇◆ Layout
Vehicle companies ushered in the washing
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, among the 98 automobile manufacturers in 2021, more than 50 companies produce less than 1,000 vehicles per month, of which nearly 20 are in a state of suspension and produce 0 vehicles per month. The sales volume of the top ten enterprise groups in terms of automobile sales accounts for about 90% of the total sales of automobiles, and the utilization efficiency is much higher than the industry average, and even reaches 100%.
Under the new track of electrification, the mainland automobile industry has entered a new stage of survival of the fittest and stock competition, the gap between "big fish" and "small fish" has become more and more obvious, and industry mergers and acquisitions and resource integration have become more normalized. In order to strengthen the competitiveness of electrification, the transformation of traditional car companies also revitalize the original production capacity resources, in recent years, the transfer of second- and third-tier marginal brands to factories, fuel vehicle production lines into new energy vehicles, is not a new thing.
Taking Volkswagen as an example, the joint venture with JAC Motor will renovate and expand its third electric vehicle manufacturing plant in China based on the second plant of Jianghuai Automobile, while Dongfeng Honda plans to take over the second plant of Dongfeng Dongfeng DPCA motor and transform it into a new plant specializing in the production of pure electric models.
With the rapid development of the new energy vehicle market, new growth points will drive the industry to spontaneously integrate idle production capacity, and this link is inseparable from the policy guidance of relevant state departments and local governments, restricting the deployment of new production capacity, which is only the first step in optimizing the industrial layout.
Lin Nianxiu, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, clearly pointed out that vehicle enterprises should highlight the key layout, rely on the existing production base to continue to develop, and no longer add new production capacity distribution points before the existing base reaches a reasonable scale; strictly implement the regulations on the investment management of the automobile industry, strengthen the cleaning up and rectification of illegal projects for new energy vehicles, investigate and deal with violations such as unapproved construction and construction while approving in accordance with laws and regulations; standardize the merger and reorganization of vehicle enterprises, vigorously promote the withdrawal of backward enterprises and ineffective production capacity, and build an industrial pattern with reasonable layout, orderly development and efficient operation.
◇◆Going to sea
Regional aggregation points globally
In 2021, global sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.75 million units, an increase of 108% year-on-year. Among them, China's new energy vehicle market continued to break through, with production and sales increasing by more than 160% year-on-year, and sales reached 3.52 million units. In the past 10 years, more than 18 million new energy vehicles have been promoted worldwide, of which more than 9 million are in China, accounting for more than half of the total number in the world. At present, the mainland is the world's largest producer and sales of new energy vehicles.
In fact, the layout of the new energy automobile industry in various provinces and cities on the mainland has its own advantages. For example, Jiangsu and Zhejiang plan to produce more than 500,000 and 600,000 vehicles by 2025, respectively. As the country's largest automobile province, Guangdong is consolidating its first-mover advantage, and the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the high-quality development of manufacturing industry in Guangdong Province clearly proposes to accelerate the development of new energy vehicles, and by 2025, the operating income of the automobile manufacturing industry will exceed 1.1 trillion yuan, creating an automobile industry cluster with international influence.
Nowadays, the development of new energy vehicle industry in various places has its own characteristics, represented by the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, and the regional agglomeration advantage has been initially formed. Lin Nianxiu pointed out that in accordance with the principle of regional agglomeration of main body concentration, guide the industry to gather in areas and entities with a good development foundation and sufficient utilization of production capacity, focusing on the Yangtze River Delta, pearl river delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Chengdu-Chongqing and other regions to create internationally competitive industrial clusters; encourage and guide key areas to formulate industrial development plans, rely on existing production capacity to develop new energy vehicles, and ensure that project construction is standardized and orderly.
According to data from the China Automobile Association, in 2021, the mainland exported 2.015 million vehicles, an increase of 1 times year-on-year, accounting for 7.7% of total automobile sales. In particular, the export performance of new energy vehicles is outstanding, with new energy vehicle exports of 310,000 units, an increase of 3 times year-on-year, and it is expected that the growth rate of mainland automobile exports will be about 20% in 2022. The new energy automobile industry is accelerating its development, and it is even more necessary to be prepared to go to sea and increase to the huge global market.
[Reporter] Wei Hongquan
【Author】 Wei Hongquan
【Source】 Southern Press Media Group South + client