Half is the flame, half is the ocean, is it beneficial for domestic car companies to open the "roll" like this?

Author | Sui Yi

Edit | Tong Langlang

Produced by | Commercial vehicle network (shangyongqiche)

Crazy expansion and overcapacity are a magic drama being staged by domestic car companies. The last time I remembered such a picture was 10 years ago. Who will have the last laugh in this inner volume? The market will ultimately give us the answer.

According to the data released by the Federation of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2021, domestic automobile manufacturers sold a total of 21.456 million passenger cars, an increase of 6.6% year-on-year, and finally ended three consecutive years of negative growth. However, in the context of the good trend of the domestic automobile environment, for most weak enterprises, life is not good, and the serious excess capacity utilization rate is the best proof.

According to the statistics of the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, by the end of 2021, there are only 86 domestic car companies with automobile sales statistics, and the capacity utilization rate is only 52.47%, and the details are detailed in the following table. There are 29 car companies with annual sales of less than 10,000 units, with total sales of 99,600 units in 2021 and a total production capacity of 4.922 million units, with an average capacity utilization rate of only 2.02%. It can be said that among these 86 car companies, about 3.85 million vehicles have completely idle production capacity. If the domestic automobile manufacturing industry cannot usher in fundamental changes, then such enterprises can not do anything about the status quo of overcapacity.

During the just-concluded Two Sessions of the National People's Congress, Wang Fengying, a deputy to the National People's Congress and president of Great Wall Motors, put forward the "Proposal on Promoting the Capacity Utilization Rate of China's Automobile Industry". She suggested that we should promote the automobile industry to gather in areas with full capacity utilization and perfect supporting systems, cultivate a number of advanced manufacturing clusters in the world; encourage qualified advantageous enterprises to merge and reorganize enterprises with low capacity utilization or special publicity; strictly control the new vehicle production capacity, curb blind investment, avoid inefficient duplicate construction, and establish an exit mechanism;

The 25% of car companies in the forefront of sales account for 88% of total sales, which fully confirms the law of two and eight.

From Dongfeng Honda taking over the original Shenlong No. 2 Plant, to GAC Aean transforming the Guangfik Guangzhou plant, from the Great Wall revitalizing the Linyi Zhongtai base to the former Mahayana production base in Fuzhou being pocketed by BYD, we can detect the huge difference between being selected by the times and not from this information alone.

So, which companies are on fire and which are in the sea?

The traditional powerhouse is strong

According to the data, there are 11 car companies with a capacity utilization rate of more than 100%, and another 4 new energy vehicle companies have a capacity utilization rate of 100%.

Taking Dongfeng Honda as an example, it currently has three vehicle factories in China, with a planned annual production capacity of 768,000 vehicles, but in 2021, Dongfeng Honda's sales reached 793,000 vehicles, and the capacity utilization rate exceeded 100%, for which Dongfeng Honda took over the second plant of Dongfeng DPCA to prepare for the new energy plant.

In addition to Dongfeng Honda, the capacity utilization rate of more than 100% is also: GAC Toyota, GAC Honda, Tianjin FAW Toyota, Sichuan FAW Toyota, BMW Brilliance, Beijing Benz, Dongfeng Nissan and so on. For these veterans, the production capacity of fuel vehicles + the demand for new energy have become a strong support for continuing to base themselves on the market.

Emerging forces are worried about internal and external troubles

Taking Tesla China as an example, the current monthly delivery volume is maintained at the level of 50,000 vehicles, and the capacity utilization rate reaches 100%, while Tesla's market demand at home and abroad is getting higher and higher, so it is constantly rumored that various factories have been built and production lines have been acquired.

The new force's front-line "Wei Xiaoli" announced that it can achieve a cumulative production capacity of 900,000 vehicles in 2022, but last year's sales of the three combined was only 300,000 vehicles. The difference in production and sales is more than three times, masking the anxiety of the new forces at night.

Unlike traditional car companies that continue to transfuse blood through fuel vehicles, even if the new forces sell 100,000 vehicles a year, it is still difficult to make a profit in the short term. In 2021, 3.326 million new energy passenger vehicles will be sold, while the monopoly capacity will be 5.695 million units, and the capacity utilization rate is 58.4%. According to the forecast of the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 6 million in 2022, but the new energy production capacity of traditional car companies is also continuing to grow, and there are 10.46 million new production capacity in the follow-up.

Who is marginalized

Today's overcapacity must be the bitter fruit of yesterday's crazy expansion.

Among the car companies that are now marginalized, one is the third-tier joint venture brand represented by DPCA, Beijing Hyundai, GAC FCA, Dongfeng Yueda Kia and Dongfeng Renault, etc., who either sell idle factories or withdraw from the Chinese market; the second type is Huatai, Zotye, Cheetah, Lifan as the representative of independent car companies, they have no strong dependence behind them, wandering on the edge of the market for many years, still can not escape mergers and acquisitions and endings; the third type is China, Xiali, etc., even if they are backed by big trees. However, for various reasons, it has declined; the fourth type is the cross-border car-making mania represented by Evergrande Automobile, whether it is "enclosure" or "car-making" has once become a hot topic in the market, but with the break of the capital chain of Evergrande Group, the goal of car-making has also become a dream of Nanke.

Where is the road

Weilai founder Li Bin recently said that as the plans of technology companies such as Huawei, Xiaomi, and Apple in the automotive field gradually become clear, everyone will begin to work hard in 2022, and the final final of the industry is expected to start in 2024 and 2025, when there will be fundamental changes in the industry pattern.

Although some enterprises have revitalized existing resources through the acquisition of production capacity, since they want to develop new energy vehicles, the cost of building new factories is far lower than that of renovating old factories, at the same time, local governments will still contribute to some car companies that are on the verge of bankruptcy for various considerations, which may still lead to the delisting of idle production capacity.

The market is cruel and fair, whether it is independent, joint venture or foreign car companies, are facing the same market test. The change of the industry pattern requires a positive driving force rather than the repeated construction of low-end production capacity, and car companies without brands, core technologies and capital will have no future. The rapid development of new energy vehicles has undoubtedly revitalized idle resources, but blindly seeking large and blindly expanding has buried hidden dangers for a new round of overcapacity?