On March 14, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced that the list of Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks has been adjusted and will take effect from today, and it will be transferred to Ideal Automobile-W (02015.HK).
Just this past February, Ideal Auto announced the delivery of 8414 Ideal ONE units in a single month, an increase of 265.8% year-on-year. Since its launch, the cumulative delivery volume of ideal ONE has reached 144,770 units.
Ideal also recently unveiled its second model, the L9. This is another range extender SUV, scheduled for official delivery in September this year, and is expected to be priced in the range of 400,000-500,000 yuan. Soochow Securities believes that the biggest dark horse in 2022 or the ideal car and its industrial chain, the ideal L9 or the biggest new energy explosion in 2022.
The success of the ideal car has made the extended range electric technology known to more and more people, and in 2022, a variety of plug-and-mix models will be listed on the market, which is known as the "first year of plug-and-mix popularization" in the industry. Industry insiders pointed out to the Red Star Capital Bureau that the pure electric endurance of the plug-in hybrid model is generally about 100 kilometers, the pure electric mode is enough to cope with daily commuting, the refueling can also be competent for long-distance travel, and the policy can also enjoy similar to the pure electric vehicle model.
Although "plug-in hybrid models are only a shortcut to the transition from fuel vehicles to pure electric vehicles, and the ultimate goal is pure electric drive" is the consensus of the industry, in the next 10 years, plug-in and hybrid models still have a lot of room for industry growth.
Ideals, BYD sold crazy
In February, Ideal Auto announced the delivery of 8,414 Ideal ONE units in a single month, an increase of 265.8% year-on-year. Since the launch of the Ideal ONE, a total of 144,770 vehicles have been delivered, and Ideal Auto has steadily ranked among the top three new car manufacturers with this model. A few days ago, the ideal released the 2021Q4 financial report shows that the company's quarterly revenue exceeded 10 billion for the first time.
Ideal recently announced the second new car L9, the power system still continues the ideal ONE extender power form, the difference is that the use of 1.5T four-cylinder range extender, can achieve pure electric endurance of 200km, range extension 1000km, full power full fuel cumulative endurance of 1200km. The car will be officially unveiled at the Beijing Auto Show in April this year and is expected to be priced at about 400,000-500,000 yuan.
Soochow Securities released a research report saying that the biggest dark horse in 2022 or the ideal car and its industrial chain, the ideal L9 or the biggest new energy explosion in 2022.
The hybrid market in 2021, BYD (002594. SZ) accounts for nearly half, and its DM-i hybrid series has sold a total of 272,000 new vehicles. In January 2022, BYD DM-i model sales reached 46,000 units, up 7.6% year-on-year, and DM-i models sold 44,300 units in February, accounting for two-thirds of total plug-in hybrid retail sales (66,000 units) in February. BYD also surpassed SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM to win the runner-up in single-month sales, and for the first time stood in the championship position of the top three independent.
BYD DM-i models are currently the top spot in China's plug-and-mix market segment, not only have technical advantages, the cost has also dropped again and again, seizing most of the plug-in mix market below 100,000-200,000 yuan, and the hot sale of fuel vehicles is the 10-15 million yuan market. On March 12, the 2022 Song MAX DM-i was officially listed, priced at 145,800-17.28 million yuan after comprehensive subsidies, and BYD announced that the Song MAX fuel model car was suspended and sold.
The success of Ideal Auto and BYD has made many car companies focus on the market of plug-in and hybrid models.
Since last year, many independent brands have released plug-and-mix technology. Geely Automobile (00175. HK) launched Thor Hybrid, Changan Automobile (000625. SZ) has IDD hybrid, Great Wall Motors (601633. SH) has lemon DHT hybrid, Chery Automobile has Kunpeng DHT hybrid, these technical routes although the path is not the same, but in the pure electric mileage, comprehensive fuel consumption and power performance are unique.
Specifically looking at the models, Geely's Raytheon hybrid is adapted to HEV hybrid, PHEV plug-in hybrid and REEV extended range hybrid system. At present, Geely has only released the Star-Etsu L hybrid version of this model, and it is expected that 20 models will be installed in the next three years.
Great Wall's lemon DHT hybrid includes two technical solutions: HEV oil-electric hybrid and PHEV plug-in hybrid. At present, there are WEY Weipai's LATTE DHT hybrid versions, Mocha PHEV, Macchiato DHT and DHT-PHEV versions. The MOCHA DHT-PHEV went on sale on March 1.
Changan's Blue Whale iDD Hybrid, the first model UNI-K iDD, was launched on March 10, which belongs to the PHEV plug-in hybrid model.
Chery's Kunpeng DHT hybrid, the first model Tiggo 8 PLUS Kunpeng e+ launched in January, also belongs to the PHEV plug-in hybrid model.
The first year of the plug-in model
In 2021, the plug-and-roll model, which was once seen as a transitional solution, showed strong competitiveness.
According to the data of the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 reached 2.989 million units, of which 2.444 million were pure electric vehicles, an increase of 168.6% year-on-year, and the sales of plug-in hybrid models, including range extenders, reached 545,000 units, an increase of 171.2% year-on-year. In other words, the growth rate of plug-in hybrid models has exceeded that of pure electric vehicle models, becoming the segment with the highest growth rate.
In January this year, sales of pure electric passenger cars fell 15% month-on-month and nearly 60% year-on-year. A total of 85,000 units were sold, up 3.1% month-on-month and 198.3% year-on-year.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said, "To some extent, the shrinking of the mini-car market and the expansion of the market for plug-in and hybrid models are all positive manifestations of the structural adjustment of new energy vehicle products. ”
2022 is considered to be the first year of the popularization of plug-and-mix.
In 2021, the market share of mainland plug-in and hybrid models is only 18%; the federation judges that the proportion of this market will increase to 25% this year. According to ping an securities research report data, it is expected that the sales of domestic plug-in hybrid models are expected to reach more than 1 million in 2022.
Liu Hao, an analyst in the automotive industry, told Red Star Capital Bureau that at a time when pure electric vehicles still have widespread range anxiety and technical bottlenecks, with the gradual decline of new energy subsidies and the rise in raw material and fuel prices, the cost advantages of plug-in hybrid vehicles are gradually reflected.
In the ultimate goal of electrification development, car companies have a consensus of pure electric drive. With the decline in battery costs and the improvement of infrastructure construction, the endurance and cost advantages of plug-in hybrid models over pure electric vehicles may no longer exist.
In terms of policy, according to the current model classification and licensing policy, HEV hybrid models can only be on the "blue card" and cannot enjoy new energy vehicle subsidies and purchase tax reductions, while PHEV plug-in hybrid models belong to the category of new energy vehicles, and can be on the "green card" and enjoy various national subsidy concessions.
However, the policy dividend of plug-in hybrid is gradually fading. According to the "Shanghai Municipal Implementation Measures for Encouraging the Purchase and Use of New Energy Vehicles", from January 1, 2023, consumers who purchase plug-in hybrid (including range extender) vehicles will no longer issue special license quotas for new energy. After Beijing, Shanghai became another city to abolish the preferential license for plug-in hybrid vehicles. In the future, more large and medium-sized cities may exclude plug-in hybrids from the "green card" policy.
"But in a period of time, there is still a lot of room for industry growth in plug-in hybrid models," Liu Hao said, "and the preliminary judgment is that in the next decade." ”
Red Star News reporter Wu Danruo
Edited by Tao Yueyang
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