Author 丨 Wang Xiaoxi
Responsible editor 丨 Luo Chao
Editor 丨Zhu Jinbin
After more than thirty years of "market for technology", China's automotive industry has finally woken up, and unexpectedly found a blank space in the hybridization of joint venture brands, and successfully opened a new round of hybrid "fire".
This loophole is the plug-in hybrid model that takes the mixed route. The "fire" of this plug and mix is from BYD's DM-i model. Of course, BYD is not the only deep-rooted in the insertion and mixing technology, to be precise, this is the second wave of collective outbreak of its own brands, and is entering the "plug-and-mix 2.0 era".
Not only that, the trend of China's hybrid market is also showing signs of confrontation with pure electric. All of this makes us wonder why the pure electric "new energy curve overtaking" suddenly killed the "Cheng Biting Gold" again?
Hybrid for track, "three big pieces" changed
In fact, from BYD's first launch of DM-i products to detonate market-oriented demand, and other independent brands such as Great Wall, Geely, Chery and other independent brands have successively entered the year of hybrid products from 2022 to 2023, this product factor is one of the triple factors driving the Chinese market hybrid (especially PHEV + HEV strong mixing) to usher in the real "second spring".
With the popularity of the upgraded plug-and-mix 2.0 product, the industry has also issued a "plug-and-mix is it a short-term outbreak or a long-term positive?" " questions. However, under the premise of product outbreak, according to the calculation of Soochow Securities, the penetration rate of hybrids will increase from 7% to 50% from 2021 to 2025, and it is expected to replicate the growth path of 2011-2016 that has been deduced by independent SUVs.
The other two factors of long-term positives are policy factors. Under the national policy goal of reducing fuel consumption to 5L (NEDC) per 100 kilometers in 2025, coupled with the support of the PHEV policy in the early stage, the attention of HEV strong mixing in the "latest version of double integral + energy-saving route technical map 2.0" has been strengthened. Behind this is the national target of 40% hybrid penetration by 2025.
The second is the technical factor, BYD, Great Wall, Geely, Chery and other independent brands this time the DHT plug-in hybrid model outbreak, behind the latest generation of their respective "dual motor DHT hybrid system" program has truly achieved a technological breakthrough, to achieve the "power - economy - cost" of the best balance program, and the effect is better than the German, especially the Japanese.
What is the significance of the "dual-motor DHT hybrid system" listed in the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" national 863 project to domestic independent brand car companies?
In fact, the significance is that the "dual motor DHT hybrid system" technology has built a new hybrid special platform through the thorough transformation of the fuel vehicle platform, so that the performance of the whole vehicle in terms of energy consumption, power and smoothness has comprehensively surpassed the traditional fuel vehicle.
And most importantly, after the use of the dual-motor DHT hybrid system, the original "three major pieces" have changed. After the adoption of this technology, the power system no longer needs a pure fuel engine + transmission power combination, but transforms into: hybrid special engine, dual motor DHT, hybrid special power battery.
This transformation means that in the core components of vehicles, domestic car companies are no longer "stuck in the neck", and the monopoly advantages of German, American, Japanese and Korean car companies in the core components of fuel vehicles have disappeared. In other words, it finally broke through the original "three major pieces" pattern.
Moreover, industry insiders analyzed that in terms of hybrid special engines, the technical progress of joint venture car companies lagged behind that of independent brand car companies. Japanese, American, and Korean car companies are the first but do not monopolize; German car companies neither go first nor monopolize. The same is true in the "dual-motor DHT", where Japanese and American car companies take the lead but do not monopolize; German car companies neither go first nor monopolize. As for hybrid special power batteries, China's strengths are not to mention.
We know that HEV is an area where the Japanese have set up ultra-high patent barriers. However, the launch of the new round of hybrid models that have been restarted this time is a truly upgraded product. Therefore, "everyone found that the original joint venture company exposed such a big flaw in the traditional fuel vehicle market." The sales of BYD DM-i models are breaking through, which is proof of this. The joint venture car companies have returned to Their senses, "The light boat has passed through the Ten Thousand Heavy Mountains".
The momentum of development from top to bottom
Of course, the reason why the development of this hybrid is once again "burning the plains", the most important thing is the explosion of the independent brand "dual motor DHT hybrid system" technology. This is inseparable from the support of the top-level design.
The "Dual Motor And Bridge Coupling DHT Hybrid System" project since the 13th Five-Year Plan has given us an insight into the breakthrough of independent research and development. This is the "market for technology" can not be exchanged, the results of self-reliance also prove that new energy is not only a pure electric route.
In December 2020, the Society of Automotive Engineers of China released the "Roadmap 2.0 for Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technologies" (hereinafter referred to as "Roadmap 2.0"). It pointed out that by 2025/2030/2035, the proportion of hybrids will reach 40%/45%/50% respectively, and the fuel consumption target for 2025/2030/2035 will be 5.6L/4.8L/4.0L per 100 kilometers. Moreover, the 48V light mixing technology is difficult to achieve, and it is necessary to use HEV strong mixing technology.
Subsequently, at the Global New Energy Vehicle Supply Chain Innovation Conference, Wang Binggang, head of the expert group of the new energy vehicle innovation engineering project, explained the "Roadmap 2.0" to the outside world, saying that new energy vehicles and energy-saving vehicles (HEV+PHEV) should be developed simultaneously, and the proportion of hybrid vehicles and new energy vehicles should account for half by 2035, and it is more in line with the actual situation to replace the "fire ban schedule" with the "comprehensive electric drive plan".
The top-level design is based on the promotion of the "double carbon + double integral" policy, and the "policy + market demand" has also boosted the proportion of hybrid models. Obviously, autonomous car companies have accelerated the speed of replacing traditional fuel models with hybrid models. And, as oil prices soar, consumers also need cost-effective hybrid products to help reduce the cost of use.
Therefore, the hybrid process will accelerate significantly in 2022. So, in the case of pure electric power, what is the development momentum of hybrid?
If we look at the march report of the Association, we know that the momentum of PHEV is quite strong. In the first quarter, the cumulative sales growth rate of PHEV models reached 211.2%, which is the most prominent among all types of new energy models.
Up to now, although the sales of BEV models still account for 70% of the share of new energy models, this share will continue to decline. Moreover, in March, a suspected by-DIDD internal meeting minutes revealed that nearly 400,000 or so undelivered orders, as well as the 3:1 ratio of DM-i and BEV model orders, and this ratio is still 0.85:1 in 2021, which is already very telling.
Therefore, in general, the plug-in hybrid model is growing into a mainstream model, which is in line with the development trend mentioned earlier.
The current market also shows that "pure electric power at both ends of the market, plug-in hybrid acceleration fuel vehicle replacement." Although this is the judgment given by Huaxi Securities, the market and car companies are indeed evolving in this way, and there are laws behind them. (The topic of this article is to discuss the problem of hybridity, which pure electric is skipped here.) ）
As teacher Wang Yunqing said, "The market finally gave its own choice - for ordinary families, plugging and mixing is a better solution than pure electricity." "Because the range of 100,000 to 200,000 yuan is the main force of this spindle-shaped market consumer group, in the case of imperfect charging infrastructure, including subsidies declining, price increases caused by sharp price increases in raw materials since last year, etc., the acceptance of this main group for pure electric is not too high."
Figure | the insurance data of terminal plug-in hybrid models in 2021
According to the traffic insurance data, we know that the sales of PHEV models in 2021 will exceed 430,000 vehicles, of which BYD accounts for more than half of the share, and the extender (also included in the PHEV) represented by the ideal ONE, Lantu Free, Xilis SF5, etc. is about 100,000 vehicles, which constitutes the main pattern of PHEV consumption. In the first quarter of this year alone, the cumulative sales of plug-in and hybrid models have exceeded 235,000 units.
In 2022, BYD has set a sales target of 1.2 million vehicles, of which PHEV and pure electricity account for half each. Then, with reference to its market share in 2021 and the growth rate of more than 200% in the first quarter of PHEV, the size of more than 1 million phEV vehicles in 2022 is no problem.
Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD, predicted that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles this year can reach 35%, and according to the industry's estimated sales of 5 million to 6 million vehicles, it is not difficult for PHEV to account for more than 20%. Based on the current technological breakthroughs of independent brands, as well as the solution of cost problems, coupled with national policy guidance and support, the amount of dual-motor DHT hybrid system models is just around the corner.
The "cost law" has made the Japanese system lose its color
For the independent car company "brand full range hybrid", Kang Qin and I previous article "brand full range hybridization" will become the norm" has also long put forward this judgment. Of course, the roadblocks rolled out by the previous hybrid models are mainly cost issues.
After all, the two complex powertrains of heV and PHEV models cost a lot more. However, this time, the "dual motor DHT system" of this mixed model of domestic car companies has taken the lead in achieving parity with fuel vehicles in terms of cost, such as BYD DM-i models (the cost is only 10,000 yuan higher), and Qin, Song, Tang, Han and other models based on DM-i technology have achieved explosive sales.
In fact, the price of the plug-in model is less than 30,000 yuan higher than that of the same fuel vehicle, which is already completely acceptable. And other independent car companies, have also achieved or will achieve the "parity" of fuel vehicles with plug-in and mixed technology, and then superimpose the electrification and intelligent experience of plug-in and mixed models, such as the Great Wall's Mocha PHEV, Chery Tiggo 8 Kunpeng e+ and other models have been listed, so in 2022, the situation of "accelerating the replacement of fuel vehicles with plug-in and mixed vehicles" is coming.
The difference this time is also that in the early days of the market, due to the general 50 km pure electric endurance of plug-and-mix models, car companies and consumers have caused misleading, thinking that only 50 km is enough, but more times of charging are needed during use, resulting in consumers' "charging compulsive disorder".
This time, like the consumer survey in the process of Chery's development of Kunpeng DHT, more than 100 kilometers of endurance can meet 92% of user needs. Therefore, the plug-in hybrid 2.0 models listed by various car companies this time basically have a pure electric mileage of more than 100 kilometers.
Moreover, as Zhu Yulong, an industry expert, said, the difference in 20kWh is about 15,000 yuan in cost from the cost of increasing the battery, but it can bring great differences in use. Taken together, there is a huge competitive advantage against the joint venture hybrid model.
For example, bydir Qin PLUS DM-i has a starting price of 105,800 yuan, and BYD itself has a Versailles, "There were once friends who took dm-i models back to study, and the results proved that they could also be made, but it took at least three years, and the cost was 16W+." In other words, the cost of a bicycle is at least 50,000 yuan higher than THAT.
From the power point of view, Toyota Corolla dual engine E+, its maximum motor power is only 53kW, the maximum torque of 207N·m (BYD Qin PLUS DM-i 55Km version is 132kW, 316N·m), its motor power is only less than half of qin PLUS DM-i, but the price is nearly twice. As consumers become more mature, it is easy to see how to choose.
The reason why the "BYD phenomenon" began to appear at the end of last year, we analyze the Japanese HEV strong mix represented by Toyota THS, and the double motor DHT plug and mix technology represented by BYD DM-i, we can understand that this is also the essential difference between the two modes of fuel and pure electricity, mechanical transmission and electric transmission and two eras.
Specifically, the THS is an engine-based hybrid technology supplemented by an electric motor, essentially a fuel vehicle. The BYD DM-i is a hybrid technology based on the motor and supplemented by the engine, which is essentially close to a pure tram. In addition, China's automotive industry has accelerated into the era of electrification and intelligence, and the generation difference between the two models has created market differences.
In other words, the core part of Toyota's THS system, which was born in 1997, is the "planetary gear set" of power shunting, which is still dominated by mechanical transmission and supplemented by electric transmission. The core of the "dual-motor DHT system" that broke out in 2021 is the three-electric system, which relies more on electric transmission.
In terms of cost, the high cost of a set of THS system is about 80,000 yuan, compared with the supply chain of independent car companies, it is difficult to say that the advantages, even if the hardware and software of Japanese PHEV technology are no problem, the biggest problem is still how to achieve cost "flat" control in mass production.
In addition, if the price of electronic components is reduced, the dual-motor DHT system can follow the cost reduction, while the cost of the THS system cannot be reduced much, after all, the cost of mechanical finishing is dead, and the price reduction cannot catch up with the price reduction of semiconductor devices. And the most critical thing is that while the price of electronic components is reduced, the iterative level of power, reliability, and volume reduction is also constantly improving, and the THS system with planetary gear sets, solar wheel architecture, and more mechanical transmissions is close to the optimal design, and there is not much room for upgrading.
This generation gap is the result of the technological progress of independent brands. Therefore, this showdown between HEV and dual-motor DHT system, the market has given a completely different result of growth rate. This is like Toyota, Honda and Nissan in the field of pure electric conservative and swinging, China's independent brands with the speed of "fast fish eat slow fish", finally out of their own development path, and on this road galloping.