The competitive momentum is intensifying.
In early March, a look back at February sales may be clearer.
2022 is not simple, because it is just a critical period.
The four ministries and commissions have made it clear that the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will be terminated on December 31, 2022, after which the vehicles on the plate will no longer enjoy subsidies.
Moreover, the new energy subsidies in 2022 are also declining, reduced by 30% compared with 2021.
What does this mean? The subsidies that disappear are either digested by the car brands themselves or translated into rising prices, borne by consumers.
In theory, even if car brands "smash the pot and sell iron", they are more inclined to digest it themselves. After all, if the price really rises, the sales may not be able to hold up.
However, in 2022, the situation is somewhat special. Just as the so-called "roof leak is partial to overnight rain", this side of the new energy subsidies retreated, the price of raw materials soared there (lithium, cobalt and other key metals for "making batteries"), even if the strong camel car brand, under the squeeze of high cost and low profits, is only a thin horse.
As a result, subsidies disappeared, and the price of raw materials was superimposed, which together led to an increase in the price of new energy vehicles.
So, in 2022, what kind of changes will the trend of new energy vehicles change? Still starting with sales.
★ Nezha rushed into the top three, and Aean broke through ten thousand
In February, the ranking of new forces changed again.
Ideal Auto came out on top with only one car, with monthly sales of 8414 units, an increase of 265.8% year-on-year.
Surprisingly, Nezha Automobile, which has been in the "second echelon" for many years, sold 7,117 vehicles in February, an increase of 255% year-on-year, ranking second in the list of new forces.
Subsequently, Xiaopeng Automobile's monthly sales were 6225 units, an increase of 180% year-on-year, ranking third.
NIO slipped fourth, with monthly sales of 6,131 units, up 9.9% year-on-year.
After that, there are zero-run cars, with specific sales of 3435 units, ranking 5th.
Of course, the "competitive pressure" felt by the new forces does not only come from within the small circle. New energy brands born out of traditional car companies are also eyeing the tiger.
GAC E-An, which sold 8,526 vehicles in February, has surpassed any car company on the list of new forces mentioned above.
Extreme Kr, with sales of 2,916 units in February, is still in a period of slow climbing.
BYD sold 88,300 new energy vehicles in February, up more than 752% year-on-year. Beyond 2021, its growth momentum is still very impressive.
In addition to the "decline in new energy subsidies and the rise in raw material prices" mentioned in the opening paragraph, February was originally a special month. Coinciding with the Spring Festival, the sales volume of the release has been released in January, and the whole of February is a "rest month".
Therefore, the overall new energy sales volume, February compared with January, is bound to decline, but compared with February last year, it is also a "brush brush" growth.
It is predicted that in 2022, the consumer demand for new energy will continue to rise. In particular, under the stimulus of "enjoying subsidies in the last year" and "free card in the last year (Shanghai area)", swing users will also complete the conversion during the critical period.
But in the same way, the problem of "stability" of the supply chain and production line will continue to exist for a long time. The "lack of core" in these two years, and the "lack of batteries" in the next two years, will also become a norm. The situation affecting the consumer side is, "whether the price can be increased, can the car be mentioned, and whether the new model can be listed as promised."
★ Each has something to say, sweeping the snow in front of the door
The difficulties encountered by each car company are similar, and their respective response measures are different.
"Subsidies decline, raw material prices rise", the most serious case is "Euler". Since February 15, Euler Black Cat and White Cat have no longer accepted new orders, and the two cars have been de facto discontinued.
We comb the reasons why black cats and white cats stop production, mainly because of low prices, "sell one, lose one", take the initiative to stop production, and complete the stop loss.
Electric cars of 60,000-80,000 yuan will sell very well in 2021. For example, why Nezha can rank among the top three of the new forces is mainly due to its electric cars.
From the current point of view, there is no shortage of market for electric cars, and the competition is the cost control ability.
Cost control, there is a lot of attention. Battery is the main cost, how to stabilize the price of battery? The cost of chips is also rising, how to avoid "lack of core"?
Even, the reason why some electric cars are on sale is because of the need for "double integration". To put it bluntly, through the profits of large-displacement fuel vehicles, to subsidize the loss of electric cars, but the existence of electric cars can make up for the "double points" required for fuel vehicles.
However, the news received from the industry is that due to the growth of electric vehicles exceeding expectations, the inflation of points trading is not so valuable. To sell large-displacement fuel vehicles, even if you directly buy "double points", it is lower than the cost of producing electric cars, so the existence of electric cars is more embarrassing.
Not only Euler, but other brands that rely on electric cars may encounter similar problems. "The cost cannot be suppressed, the price does not dare to rise, and the suspension of production is the most preferred."
Looking at the entire industry, more brands are still trying to join the "price increase tide". Since January 1 this year, Tesla, Xiaopeng, Extreme Krypton, BYD, SAIC Volkswagen, FAW-Volkswagen and other car companies have successively issued price increase announcements, and the increase in new cars ranges from 1,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan.
Many industry organizations predict that in 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the mainland is expected to reach 5 million, and the market penetration rate will exceed 20%.
However, between the sustained development of the profitability of car companies and the cost of consumer products, how to maintain a reasonable balance, and the price increase may only be a "next policy".
Combing the supply chain and finding more profit points also needs to be urgently considered.
The author of this article is Kick Car Gang Cao An