Heads of multiple ministries and commissions, industry leaders talk about the development of new energy vehicles! Where is the future investment direction?

The China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum (2022) was held in Beijing on March 25-27. The relevant responsible persons of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other departments revealed the policy ideas for the next step to promote the development of the new energy automobile industry.

The relevant responsible persons of many ministries and commissions spoke out

1. Optimize the industrial layout

Lin Nianxiu, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, mentioned that it is necessary to adhere to the national chess game and strive to optimize the industrial layout.

First, in accordance with the principle of main body concentration and regional agglomeration, guide the industry to gather in areas and entities with a good development foundation and sufficient utilization of production capacity, focusing on building internationally competitive industrial clusters in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Chengdu-Chongqing and other regions.

The second is to encourage and guide key areas to formulate industrial development plans, rely on existing production capacity to develop new energy vehicles, ensure that the project construction is standardized and orderly, vehicle enterprises should highlight the key layout, rely on existing production bases to gather development, and no longer add new production capacity distribution points before the existing bases reach a reasonable scale.

The third is to strictly implement the regulations on the management of investment in the automobile industry, strengthen the cleaning up and rectification of illegal projects of new energy vehicles, and investigate and deal with violations such as unapproved construction, batch zero construction, and construction while approving in accordance with laws and regulations.

The fourth is to standardize the merger and reorganization of vehicle enterprises, vigorously promote the withdrawal of backward enterprises and ineffective production capacity, and build an industrial pattern with reasonable layout, orderly development and efficient operation.

Lin Nianxiu said that since 2022, the mainland has completely abolished the restrictions on foreign investment in the automotive sector, the opening up of manufacturing industries such as automobiles, especially new energy vehicles, has been deepening, and a number of major foreign-funded projects are accelerating their construction.

2. Organize forces to tackle key problems

Xiang Libin, vice minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, also said that in view of the pain points and difficulties faced by the current industry, organize forces to carry out research and development, use methods such as "unveiling the commander", support relevant enterprises to develop high-safety, all-climate power battery system technology, carry out cobalt-free power batteries, low-weight rare earth permanent magnet material drive motors and other technical research, strengthen the research and development of battery ladder utilization technology, and support the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain to coordinate technical research, platform construction, standard formulation, test evaluation and chip on the car.

3. In-depth exploration of the coordinated development of automobiles and cities

Jiang Wanrong, Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will combine with relevant departments to implement urban renewal actions, rely on the pilot project of coordinated development of smart city infrastructure and intelligent networked vehicles, deeply explore the path and method of achieving the coordinated development of automobiles and cities, and continuously improve the bearing capacity, livability and inclusiveness of cities.

The first is to deepen the pilot project of coordinated development of smart city infrastructure and intelligent networked vehicles; the second is to explore a new model of urban smart infrastructure construction and operation; the third is to promote the interconnection of car city data; the fourth is to promote the reconstruction of the city's transportation system; and the fifth is to increase the intensity of scientific and technological innovation. Promote the construction of a number of urban and rural construction science and technology innovation centers and innovation laboratories, accelerate a series of low-carbon and digital key technology research, including smart city infrastructure and intelligent networked vehicle collaborative development technology, and promote the accelerated transformation and application of scientific and technological achievements in cities.

Industry bigwigs think

BYD King Chuanfu: Three suggestions

First, it is hoped to clarify the preferential policies for new energy vehicles in the post-subsidy era. It is recommended to refer to the grain reserve adjustment mechanism of agriculture to adjust the balance between supply and demand, increase the predictability of the point price, and ensure the effective operation of the double credit policy.

Second, adhere to pure electric and plug-in hybrid two legs to walk. Achieve a smooth transition from fuel vehicles to pure electric vehicles.

Third, adhere to lithium iron phosphate as the correct development path.

Zhu Huarong of Changan Automobile: Talk about the existing problems

First, it is recommended that the government strengthen the overall layout, coordinated development of industries, accelerate the construction of infrastructure such as charging and replacing, study and solve the problem of power capacity increase caused by the increase in electricity consumption in old residential areas, accelerate the construction of charging infrastructure and power transformation, promote the development of charging and replacing dual lines, and solve the problem of high travel electricity consumption.

The second is to recommend that the state strengthen unified planning guidance, strengthen the layout of overseas resources for lithium, cobalt, nickel and other power battery raw materials, guide domestic enterprises and industrial chains to form the ability to mine and purify core resources, and continue to improve the power battery recycling management system.

The third is to suggest that the industry increase basic research, develop high-efficiency battery core technology, and completely solve the problems of charging efficiency and safety hazards.

The new energy vehicle industry chain is extremely extensive

Overall, the new energy vehicle industry chain covers a wide range and involves many companies. Wind data shows that the upstream of the industrial chain includes lithium ore, electrolyte, positive and negative electrode materials, diaphragms, etc., and there are more related listed companies.

The middle reaches of the industrial chain followed include batteries, electronic controls, motors, thermal management, circuit systems and other aspects. Among them, it is expected that there will be more than 100 listed companies at home and abroad.

The downstream is mainly major car companies and charging pile companies that produce automobiles. Veteran traditional car companies: Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Geely, SAIC, Changan, etc.; emerging car companies: Tesla, Weilai, Xiaopeng, etc.; A-share charging pile companies: Aotexun, Trident, etc.

From the perspective of market performance, the Wind New Energy Vehicle Concept Index has risen from a low of 1493 points in February 2020 to a high of 4484 points in December 2021, with a cumulative increase of 200% in the sector. After the sharp rise in the previous two years, new energy vehicles have been greatly adjusted this year, and the sector has now fallen by 20.70%, which is greater than the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index in the same period.

Are there any investment opportunities in the future?

Liu Hongchen of Guohai Securities believes that the price increase tide will be a reshuffle of the new energy vehicle market, and the market share will be further concentrated on high-quality brands. Price increases often affect consumers' short-term decision-making, and in the medium and long term, consumer psychological price levels are expected to change with changes in the overall market price environment.

Bohai Securities Zheng Liansheng believes that the country continues to continue the development of new energy vehicles the original intention has not changed, although since the beginning of the year due to subsidies and power battery price adjustments led to the price of models have been raised, the industry's rapid growth is expected to face certain pressure, but believes that this year's supply to stimulate demand logic will continue to deduce, last year's hot models accumulated undelivered orders will be delivered in the first half of the year, therefore, this year's sales are not pessimistic. Among them, this year's A-class car and hybrid will effectively supplement the model product line, which is expected to contribute to the main increment. The global new energy vehicle market will continue to grow rapidly under the leadership of China, Europe and the United States.

Orient Securities Lu Rixin, Li Mengqiang, Lin Yu analyzed that the continuous price increase of core metal materials such as lithium is bound to cause secondary price increases by car companies, which in turn will affect the overall sales. However, in the case of strong demand for new energy vehicles, the shortage of resources is concentrated in the head enterprises, which is conducive to the continuous optimization of the industry pattern, and the leading pressure resistance of each link is stronger, and the gap may be further widened.

Short-term contradictions do not affect the medium- and long-term general trend of new energy vehicles. The strong consumption of electric vehicles is the result of comparison with fuel vehicles, and when the upstream returns to normal prices, sales will continue to enter rapid growth.

Henan Economic Broadcasting