Lead
Introduction
The new energy car is suffering a blow to the head, and perhaps no one knows whether there is a future.
Author 丨 Du Yuxin
Responsible editor 丨 Cui Liwen
Editor 丨Zhu Jinbin
Crazy cars are going through the toughest of times.
The prices of upstream raw materials, chips, etc. have risen, the price of integral transactions has reached a new low, new energy subsidies have continued to decline, and the A00 and A0 small electric vehicles that have been riding the dust and are regarded as fragrant in the past one or two years have begun to suffer from heavy pressure.
Starting from the Great Wall Euler black, white cat and zero run T03, either stop production or increase prices, which has become a solution given by most car companies, after all, no one is willing to do a loss-making business.
Even so, the new energy car market is still showing undercurrents. On the one hand, the strong market demand for electric cars, especially in many county markets, has increased gratifyingly in the past two years, while on the other hand, everyone is stepping up the layout of the new energy car market, from Geely's geometric E, to Chang'an's "glutinous corn", the camp of "national boutique scooters" has grown up again and continued to roll inward.
From the heating up of Zhidou and BAIC a few years ago, to the cooling brought about by the deception case that was later broken, from the heating brought by the phenomenon-level products of Wuling MINIEV, to the cooling brought about by the fluctuation of points and raw materials in new energy cars, several rounds of cycles, the new energy car market is both magical and realistic.
The question is, how big is the electric car market? The hot sales of the past two rounds and the short-lived flashes after that, will they continue to appear in the small electric vehicle market? For some companies, whether the A0 and A00 markets are the optimal solution, and whether the brand will encounter low-cost cars in the future, these are all questions that must be considered.
Is it the future?
Is the new energy car the future? From the beginning, different people have different attitudes and opinions.
"We think it's really easy for us to make an entry-level micro scooter, but from the perspective of market development, quality, safety and health are the bottom lines we must adhere to." At the beginning of 2021, Geely executives said in an interview that they had reservations about the heat of electric cars, believing that A-class cars were the trend and should be the main direction of attack.
However, now, whether it is from the geometric kung fu cow or the geometric E that is about to be pushed, it is enough to see that Geely has compromised on the electric car market. Strategically, this is geely's most conventional operating process in the face of the double integration policy and emission regulations, and it is also a helpless move on the road of new energy. After all, the opponents are in full swing in new energy sales, as an independent head car company, in the context of the new energy A-class car market is still difficult to open the situation, cutting into the hottest electric car market is the best choice.
What stimulates Geely's change of concept is nothing more than the popularity of the market and the demand and desire of enterprises for new energy sales. For example, Wuling Hongguang MINIEV has become the largest selling item in China's new energy market. For example, some low-speed electric vehicles transformed into car brands, such as Reading, punk cars, etc., can also rely on A0-level products to enter the market range of thousands of vehicles sold monthly. Of course, there are also followers Chery, Changan and SAIC, and their small ants, Benben e-star, Collavi and other products can easily sell more than 5,000 per month.
In the post-subsidy era, with the policy of new energy vehicles going to the countryside and the successive launch of economic products, small pure electric passenger cars have shown certain rigid demand. Judging from the market situation in the past two years, small pure electric passenger cars account for a rapid growth trend in the market share of new energy passenger cars, which has become an important driving force for the growth of the new energy vehicle market. Small pure electric passenger cars rely on the market positioning of "people's scooters", the market price remains at a low level, and the driving range is sufficient, etc., to accelerate the release of the private consumer demand market, and the market position is gradually stabilized.
The data of the Association also shows that the sales of A00 and A0 class pure electric cars in 2021 will be about 1.3 million, accounting for about 40% of the overall sales of new energy vehicles. Behind such a huge proportion of sales is the objective demand of consumers. "Low purchase cost and travel cost, parking convenience", in fact, turn over the car experience of those who have bought new energy car owners, you can fully feel the value of these products.
Very popular small electric vehicles, because of the cheap price, low travel costs, are very popular in the low-line market, which is the most real demand from the market. In particular, China's low car penetration rate and low price of small electric vehicles are more likely to enter the ordinary consumer market. At the same time, in the vast third- and fourth-tier and county markets, consumers of two-wheeled electric vehicles also need to upgrade their consumption, because their travel radius is very limited, and new energy cars have almost become the best choice.
It is worth mentioning that mature car markets such as Europe and Japan have a high acceptance of small cars, does this mean that China also has a good opportunity in small cars?
However, the opposing side believes that from the root cause, small electric vehicles are not the mainstream products of the market, and they cannot support the long-term sustainable development of a company after facing image and profits. Correction is worth mentioning that there is a big bubble in small electric vehicles, in the current raw material prices rise, the price of integrals down, has made small electric vehicle companies miserable, Euler discontinued black cat, white cat is the best example.
"Battery price increases and subsidy declines have brought more than 7,000 yuan of cost gaps, coupled with the price of a single carbon credit from more than 2,000 yuan to several hundred yuan, according to this selling method, a car will lose 17,000 yuan." Euler brand CEO Dong Yudong said in an interview before.
The more you sell, the more you lose, which has become a hurdle that is difficult to bypass in the small electric vehicle market.
Not only Euler, from Chang'an's Ben Ben e-star to Geely Geometry's Kung Fu Niu, at the beginning of this year, they all said that they could not deliver a large number of orders, and even Changan also triggered 30,000 Ben Ben E-Star users because they could not hand over the protection of products, these cases are enough to feedback that small electric vehicles may be the current needs of enterprises, but in the long run it is not the optimal answer.
In response to the comparison between Europe and Japan in the small car market, I personally believe that the car culture and car environment are not the same, and will also bring different results, Japan's roads are narrow, suitable for cars, China's roads are wide, people prefer large spaces. The consumption of small cars by the Japanese people is also driven by government policies and subsidies to a certain extent, and unless China also has a strong policy to stimulate new energy cars, such as Liuzhou, it is possible to usher in a sustained and steady outbreak of small electric vehicles.
Do you want a market or a brand?
What needs to be stated first is that we are not denying the value and significance of new energy vehicles. From the perspective of the overall advancement and promotion of new energy, pure electric cars do bring new energy into a new territory, and it is also the real objective needs of consumers who have not yet driven a car, which is the need of the people.
But we have to worry that the addition of so many electric car products, how much to lose the overall gold content of the new energy industry, after all, 30,000 yuan of products sell 1 million vehicles, and 100,000 yuan of products sell 300,000 vehicles, although the economic effect is the same, but the two will indeed have different effects. Especially in the context of national automobile manufacturing innovation and upgrading, high-value and high-quality new energy products are more conducive to enhancing the market influence of new energy in the mainland.
For car companies, the face is to market or brand, which is indeed a particularly difficult topic to choose. Consumers and automakers are inherently full of contradictions and opposites: consumers want to buy cheaper and more affordable automotive products, but manufacturers, as a commercial entity, must rely on profits to achieve long-term development of enterprises, which requires finding a balance point.
Therefore, when Euler stopped production before, industry insiders also analyzed that stopping low-priced black cats and white cats is the best choice for the Euler brand, which is a new opportunity for enterprises and brands to gradually attack.
Don't look at the current Wuling Hongguang MINIEV so beautiful, in the raw materials and other commodities prices rise, the price of integral plummeted in the background, itself to the profit of Wuling to bring a more severe test, no profit is equivalent to the enterprise has no hematopoietic ability, development has become a problem.
At the same time, in the past, it has been immersed in the low brand value and minimal profits of Wuling Hongguang, which has brought a very big challenge to the brand, and the folding of Baojun and Wuling Silver is enough to explain everything. Imagine that If one-third of Wuling's annual sales of more than 1 million vehicles are low-end products of 30,000-40,000 yuan, it may be a disaster for this brand.
This result is not without lessons from the past, after the electric vehicle market becomes more mature, consumers of small electric vehicles are bound to upgrade their consumption, and eventually will tend to the largest A-class car market in the market, and the example of the sharp decline in the share of small fuel vehicles is the best proof, just as more than a decade ago, Chery QQ became the darling of the majority of consumers, and eventually became a typical representative of low quality and low price, and plagued Chery's upward pace.
From automobiles to other industries, such cases are numerous, and through the growth path of mobile phone manufacturers, we can also see that the brand value and brand added value brought by the brand upwards are indeed a long-term development of a brand. Just like Xiaomi, from the initial thousand yuan super cost-effective, and now the price of up to 20,000 yuan of mobile phones, Xiaomi realized that only through high-end can it establish its own moat. Including red rice and glory, they are not limited to the thousand yuan machine market, and selling high product prices has become a heavy responsibility for the development of the brand.
So we can boldly conclude that the small electric vehicle market that has completely replaced the fuel small car, in the "rugby" consumption model, can occupy a part of the sales, and the share and weight of this market segment will always be in dynamic and cyclical development, the vast majority of electric car users, after a few years will still go to a higher level of A-class electric vehicle market, and another group of low-end users in upgrading small electric vehicles, product strength will also usher in a new round of iteration.
From the long-term perspective of the automobile industry, the core of new energy products will certainly not be scooters represented by small electric vehicles, but the demand for A-class cars from Chinese and even global consumers. A-class sedans, A-class SUVs and other products are the foundation of the future new energy market, while the consumption capacity continues to move upward towards luxury brands with higher prices, just like the past 100,000 yuan car selection threshold has now gradually transitioned to 150,000 yuan, which is also the conclusion of the development law of the automobile industry over the years.
The Chinese market is diverse, can accommodate different market segments, different positioning of the product, Wuling Hongguang MINIEV, Euler or, or BYD, Geely, find the positioning, with different products and different brands to cover different market segments, may be a better way out. It's just that if the center of gravity bets on low-end small electric vehicles without a long-term future, it is estimated to be dangerous.
| Du Yuxin |
Do this line if you don't desperately write
What's the difference between that and salted fish?