January installation observation: TOP6 is stable but still full of variables

In January this year, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars in the Chinese market were 412,000 units, an increase of 141.4% year-on-year, a new high in the same period in the past five years; At the same time, the market penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 16.6%, an increase of 10 percentage points over 6.8% in the same period last year.

In terms of power batteries, data from the Power Battery Application Branch shows that the installed capacity of power batteries in the Chinese market in January was about 16.56GWh, an increase of 95.3% year-on-year.

It can be seen that including new energy vehicles, power battery installed capacity have maintained a strong growth trend, this year's mainland new energy vehicle penetration rate is likely to exceed 20%, the annual sales are expected to exceed 5.5 million.

In addition, it should be pointed out that the installed capacity of the Chinese market in January threw out export data, so the increase in installed capacity was lower than the increase in wholesale sales of passenger cars.

Specifically, the installed capacity in January this year showed the following characteristics:

1. The ranking of the top 6 companies is relatively stable, and the changes from the 7th to the 15th are still fierce.

In January this year, the top 10 companies in the Chinese market in terms of installed capacity were CATL, Fordy Battery, Zhongxin Airlines, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Hive Energy, Ewell Lithium Energy, Fu Neng Technology, Sunwoda, Jiewei Power and Tafil.

Among them, the ranking of the top 6 companies in the past few months has remained almost unchanged and relatively stable. Whether this situation will change due to the rapid release of power battery production capacity of various companies this year is worth looking forward to.

The change in the 7th-15th place is still fierce. Since the second half of last year, Jetway Power, Sunwoda, etc., the installed capacity and ranking have risen rapidly, basically standing in the TOP10.

In addition, the market share of the TOP10 in January has reached 94.79%, and the concentration has further increased.

2, lithium iron phosphate batteries continue to lead, an increase of 168.4% year-on-year, much higher than the growth rate of ternary batteries of 49.5%.

In January, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries reached 8.77GWh, an increase of 168.4% year-on-year, and the market share reached 53%; The installed capacity of ternary batteries is about 7.78GWh, an increase of 49.5% year-on-year, and the market share is about 47%. Under the background of subsidies and sharp rise in raw material prices, the cost advantage of lithium iron phosphate is increasingly favored by car companies.

From the perspective of supporting enterprises, the top installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate is Ningde Times, Fudi Battery and Guoxuan Hi-Tech. In addition, with the gradual release of lithium iron phosphate battery production capacity, the installed capacity of Hive Energy, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Zhongxin Aviation is also rising rapidly.

From the perspective of supporting models, hot models including Tesla Model Y/3, BYD Han, BYD Dolphin, Xiaopeng P7/5, Hongguang Mini ev, GAC AION Y, Nezha V, Euler Good Cat and other hot models are constantly increasing the proportion of lithium iron phosphate.

3. The installed capacity of cylindrical batteries has dropped sharply, and it is urgent to save the scene at 4680.

The installed capacity of square batteries in January was about 15.1GWh, accounting for 91.5%; The installed capacity of soft pack batteries is about 1.2GWh, accounting for 7.4%; The installed capacity of cylindrical batteries is only 188.6MWh, accounting for 1.1%.

Due to the large number of square lithium iron phosphate batteries used in The Model 3 and Model Y of the Tesla (Shanghai) factory, the LG new energy cylindrical ternary battery support was greatly reduced, which in turn made the installed capacity of cylindrical batteries drop significantly.

Recently, Tesla announced that its US factory has mass-produced 1 million 4680 batteries. 4680 battery cell energy density is higher, the capacity is 5 times that of the 21700 battery, and the heat dissipation performance is better, the power is higher, the manufacturing efficiency is greatly improved compared with the current 21700 and other cylindrical batteries, the cost is expected to drop significantly, and it is highly expected. At present, including Tesla, Panasonic Battery, LG New Energy, Ewell Lithium Energy, BAK Battery, Ningde Era, and Hive Energy are actively deployed.

It is expected that batch loading will begin in 2023, and the installed share of cylindrical batteries in the power market will be aggrieved for a period of time.

In January 2022, the installed capacity of power batteries in the Chinese market was TOP10

Data source: Power Battery Application Branch Unit: MWh

Catalonia's installed capacity in January was about 8.37GWh, accounting for 50.6% of the market, and the number of supporting models was 163,900 units. The main supporting car companies include Tesla, Weilai, SAIC Volkswagen, Xiaopeng Automobile, Geely, Ideal, SAIC, FAW-Volkswagen, Hezhong, Great Wall, SAIC-GM, etc.

The installed capacity of Fordy batteries in January was about 3.46GWh, an increase of 161.4% year-on-year, and the market share rose to 20.9%, mainly supported by BYD automobiles. In addition, in January, FAW's Hongqi E-QM5 was also equipped with FAW's Hongqi E-QM5, and the battery type is lithium iron phosphate battery. Recently, BYD Changchun Power Battery Factory started construction, the project investment of about 10 billion yuan, is the first power battery plant in Northeast China, the future is expected to gradually deepen cooperation with FAW.

China Innovation Airlines installed about 1.21GWh in January, accounting for 7.3% of the market, ranking third.

Guoxuan Hi-Tech installed about 941.9MWh in January, the market accounted for 5.7%, the number of supporting models 46,100 units, the main supporting car companies include SAIC-GM-Wuling, Chery New Energy, Jianghuai Automobile, Zero Run, Geely, Lingtu and so on. In 2021, Great Wall Motor and Guoxuan Hi-Tech signed a purchase agreement for batteries of not less than 10GWh, and this year Guoxuan Hi-Tech will supply batches to Great Wall Motors.

The installed capacity of Hive Energy in January was about 485.1MWh, an increase of 237.3% year-on-year, and the market accounted for 2.9%, ranking 5th. In addition to the main supply of Great Wall Motors, Nest Energy has also begun to increase rapidly for Hezhong New Energy and Zero-run Vehicles, and the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate is also growing rapidly.

The installed capacity of power batteries in January was about 374.8MWh, an increase of 306.1% year-on-year, ranking 6th, and the supporting car companies were mainly Xiaopeng Automobile.

The installed capacity of Fu Neng Technology in January was 296.7MWh, and the main supporting car companies include Beijing Benz, Nanjing Jinlong Bus, and GAC Passenger Car.

Sunwoda's power battery installed capacity increased by 409.1% in January, ranking 8th in the TOP10, with an installed capacity of 232.4MWh, and the main supporting car companies are Dongfeng Liuzhou, Zhejiang Haoqing and Dongfeng Motor.

Jiewei Power installed 162.5MWh in January, ranking 9th, and the supporting car companies mainly include United Automobile, Great Wall Motor, Chery New Energy and so on.

Tafil installed about 143.9MWh in January, supporting car companies mainly include Weima, Geely, FAW and so on.

In addition, due to the large-scale use of lithium iron phosphate batteries in Tesla (Shanghai) factories, LG New Energy fell out of the TOP10 again in January, ranking 12th, with an installed capacity of 114.8MWh.