Recently, Sunwoda issued an announcement that its subsidiary Sunwoda Electric Vehicle Battery has received a capital increase of up to 2.43 billion yuan from 19 companies, with a total equity ratio of 19.5495%. It is worth mentioning that among the investors introduced this time, Weilai Automobile, Xiaopeng Automobile and Ideal Automobile are prominently listed. "Wei Xiaoli" joined hands to increase the capital of Sunwoda, adding another fire to the increasingly competitive power battery industry.
1
Power battery prices are high and tight
The supply chain of the new forces is limited
The rising price of power battery raw materials that began in 2021 did not stop this year, but intensified under the influence of many factors such as the outbreak of the epidemic and the shock of the international situation. Taking lithium carbonate as an example, the price of lithium carbonate in early 2021 was only 55,000 yuan / ton, and rose to 266,000 yuan / ton at the end of the year. In March this year, the price of lithium carbonate exceeded the mark of 500,000 yuan / ton, up nearly 70% from the beginning of the year. In addition, the research of Industrial Securities pointed out that from the beginning of last year to the end of February this year, the price of lithium iron carbonate increased by 332%, the price of electrolyte rose by 189%, and the ternary cathode material generally rose by more than 100%.
In addition to soaring raw material prices, the rapidly growing demand has made the already insufficient supply of power batteries worse. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Joint Association, said that the rapid growth rate of new energy vehicles has brought a lot of pressure to power battery companies, and the power battery supply speed cannot catch up with the growth rate of new energy vehicles, resulting in battery shortages. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 452,000 units and 431,000 units in January this year, up 1.3 times and 1.4 times year-on-year. According to industry experts, the sales of new energy vehicles in mainland China will reach about 5.5 million units in 2022, and the shortage of power batteries will continue.
Prices have repeatedly reached new highs, supply continues to be tight, and the supply of power batteries can be described as choking the "throat" of many new forces. Xiaopeng Motors, which recently carried labels such as "overlord clause" and "fraudulent consumers", has a deep understanding of this. Due to the indefinite delay in delivery, car owners who ordered Models such as the Xiaopeng P7 480 and P5 460 launched a collective complaint against the Xiaopeng. It is understood that many of the owners who were delayed in delivery were orders signed in late October last year, and the delivery date was set for December last year, but until the end of February this year, these owners could not see the real car. In this regard, Xiaopeng responded that the reason is that due to the impact of the epidemic, the industry is facing an extremely tight supply of core components.
In addition to Xiaopeng, new forces such as Zero Run and Nezha have also been complained by many car owners on major complaint platforms for "delayed delivery". In fact, as early as Last May, He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Automobile, revealed that the shortage of lithium iron phosphate battery production capacity has brought uncertainty to automobile production. Although the new car-making forces have maintained a strong growth momentum in terms of delivery, the power battery supply problem is destined to become a "sword of Damocles" hanging over their heads.
2
The new forces have frequently "de-pacified" their actions
According to the statistics of CITIC Securities on domestic power battery supporting car companies from January to November 2021, the two new car-making forces of Weilai and Ideal, as well as joint venture car companies such as FAW-Volkswagen, BMW Brilliance, SAIC Volkswagen, and Beijing Hyundai, only have a battery supplier in the Ningde era, and most of the battery supply of Xiaopeng, Tesla, BAIC New Energy, Geely and other car companies also comes from the Ningde era. The joint investment of "Wei Xiaoli" in Sunwoda seems to be an "escape" that has been planned for a long time in the Ningde era.
"If the Ningde era is a big one, then it has too much impact on the decision-making power of car companies." In the eyes of car companies, they prefer that the process of purchasing batteries be led by themselves. Cui Dongshu said that car companies have thrown themselves into the arms of other power battery suppliers in fact, they want to grasp the initiative in the supply chain. In 2021, the annual loading volume of catheter in the Ningde era reached 80.51GWh, accounting for 52.1% of the domestic market, and it obviously has more say in product supply and market pricing. Wu Hui, general manager of the research department of the Yiwei Economic Research Institute, pointed out that after experiencing a series of negative effects such as rising raw material prices and tight production capacity, major car companies are naturally reluctant to "put eggs in one basket", and it is the right way to share risks with multiple bets.
In addition, the production capacity of the Ningde era itself is also limited, which cannot support the long-term supply of many car companies. It is understood that since 2021, CATL has locked in a number of long-term orders, including Geely's Zhejiang Envision 57GWh big order, Tesla 4-year order, Jinkang New Energy 5-year order, Mercedes-Benz commercial vehicle 7-year order, FAW Jiefang 5-year order, US Fisker Company's 3-year total 15GWh order, US commercial electric vehicle ELMS order and 10-year long-term strategic cooperation agreement signed with Great Wall Motors. Many car companies have long locked the battery production capacity in the Ningde era in the next few years, even if they desperately expand production, the Ningde era will not escape the situation of less porridge and more monks. For the new forces that are in the rapid climbing period of "Wei Xiaoli", sufficient battery production capacity is essential, and it may be better to find another way than to stay alone in "Ning Wang".
Although the "Wei Xiaoli" has a weaker desire for the "top stream" of the Ningde era, can the Xinwanda they chose become the star of tomorrow? In 2017, Sunwoda, which is a mobile phone battery, cross-border power battery field, and adopted the strategy of HEV, BEV and PHEV multi-line, the main customers are Renault, Nissan, Volvo, Geely, SAIC-GM-Wuling and Dongfeng Liuqi. In the ranking of domestic power battery companies in 2021, Sunwoda entered the top ten with an annual loading volume of 2.06GWh.
Liang Rui, vice president of Sunwoda, previously said that in the future, he hopes that the power battery business will reach the same scale as the consumer battery business, and the goal is to achieve the top three in China. According to the data of the Power Battery Application Branch, the installed capacity of Sunwoda power batteries reached 0.23GWh in January this year, ranking eighth in the country, and there is still a big gap compared with the Ningde era with an installed capacity of 8.13GWh. In the power battery industry where the Matthew effect is becoming more and more prominent, can Sunwoda highlight the siege? In this regard, Cui Dongshu believes that from the perspective of the current development of battery technology, the main enterprises have not yet mastered the key core technologies, and the choice of technical routes does not have advantages, which gives second-tier enterprises the opportunity to expand. "Now the technological improvement of the power battery industry is relatively slow, and the innovation spirit of the head enterprise is relatively weak, so there is still great uncertainty about who can lead in the future." He said.
However, Shao Yuanjun, research director of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Venture Capital Management Co., Ltd., pointed out that the new forces investing in other power battery companies does not mean "abandoning" the Ningde era, but only for a few more alternatives. In his view, car companies may also purchase more batteries in the Ningde era, while companies such as Xinwanda are more like security roles. "Now the barriers to battery technology are getting lower and lower, and the main difference is in cost control. The advantage of the Ningde era is that the product is better than others and the cost is lower than others. Therefore, companies like Sunwoda may be more about maintaining a supply capacity to ensure that car companies will not fall into a state of no battery availability even if they are cut off due to the Ningde era. Shao Yuanjun said.
3
Fixed increase in second- and third-tier enterprises
It is difficult to solve the urgent needs of car companies
According to SNE Research's previous forecasts, by 2023, the global demand for electric vehicles for power batteries will reach 406GWh, while the power battery capacity is expected to be only 335GWh at that time. This means that by 2023, the problem of shortage of power battery production capacity can still not be solved. However, focusing on the present, Shao Yuanjun pointed out that the current power battery gap is mainly caused by the raw material level. "The price of raw materials is too high, and the cash flow ability of some enterprises is difficult to support, so it is impossible to supply car companies." Shao Yuanjun Road.
In the view of the above experts, the price of raw materials that continue to run at a high level will still be in the price increase cycle in 2022. Shao Yuanjun explained that at present, the core materials such as nickel, cobalt and lithium required for power batteries in the mainland are still heavily dependent on imports, and under the influence of the new crown epidemic, the international trade environment is relatively unstable, and the price of raw materials for power batteries remains high. Although lithium mines are also being mined in Tibet, Qinghai, Yunnan and other places, the supply of these lithium mines also takes time.
In addition, affected by the recent Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the international situation is tense, resulting in large fluctuations in the overall bulk trading of raw materials. According to the analysis of Shanghai Nonferrous Network, Russia's pure nickel supply accounts for more than 15% of the global pure nickel supply. Therefore, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to a great impact on the supply of non-ferrous metals represented by aluminum, nickel and copper. Under the influence of multiple factors, the price of raw materials for power batteries will still be in a large fluctuation in the short term.
In order to ensure that the "grain and grass" are abundant, the new forces have begun to increase the layout in the power battery link, looking for two, three or even four supplies. Taking Xiaopeng as an example, in addition to The Ningde Era, its battery suppliers also have Ewell Lithium Energy, Times New Energy, BAK Batteries and so on. However, Cui Dongshu believes that the growth rate of new energy vehicles is too fast, and the second supply and third supply may not be able to meet the demand. "Until around 2023, the expanded battery production capacity will begin to be put into production, and the development of the new energy vehicle market will gradually slow down, at which time the second supply and third supply may be able to meet the needs of the new forces." Cui Dongshu said. Shao Yuanjun also pointed out that although the current second- and third-tier battery companies have also begun to expand production capacity and establish production lines, whether they can convert production lines into products still depends on whether their cash flow is sufficient.
"Power batteries are in short supply, and some traditional car companies have chosen not to produce them for the time being." But the new car-making forces, as start-ups, cannot do this, they must maintain the flow of cash flow, otherwise they will collapse in the short term. Shao Yuanjun told reporters that in the face of the lack of core and less electricity environment, the new forces are doomed to be unable to decisively stop taking orders like Euler, so some new forces have chosen to increase prices, and then maintain the user base through other ways to alleviate the cost pressure caused by battery shortages. It is reported that at present, the prices of all models of Xiaopeng Automobile have risen by different margins, tesla has also carried out multiple rounds of price increases, and Nezha also raised the price of its models by 2,000 to 5,000 yuan in January.
In the long run, Cui Dongshu pointed out that based on the consideration of controlling costs and grasping the right to speak, the independent construction of factories by car companies will become a future development trend. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has repeatedly revealed the idea of Tesla's own batteries, and said that it will produce 100GWh batteries in 2022. According to the previously released financial report for the fourth quarter of 2021, Tesla's German factory that plans to produce 4680 batteries is still under construction. "At present, the improvement of battery technology is relatively slow, and the difficulty and risk of independent factories of car companies are relatively small, and this method can also avoid the supply chain security crisis caused by insufficient battery production capacity." Cui Dongshu said.
Text: Zhang Yiwen Editor: Huang Bei Layout: Wang Kun