Recently, the development of domestic new energy vehicles has reached a very strong stage, which has actually caused a sharp decline in sales of joint venture brands based on fuel vehicles. It can be said that the strong rise of domestic new energy vehicles has really threatened the living space of fuel vehicles, and it is only a matter of time before fuel vehicles are fully replaced.
So when will fuel vehicles be withdrawn from the market? How should we look at the "arms race" of domestic new energy vehicles?
A few days ago, Tencent Auto interviewed Dr. Lin Xinyou, the head of the new energy vehicle and intelligent control team of Fuzhou University, whose main research direction is "energy management and control strategy of new energy electric vehicles and autonomous vehicle-road collaborative control", and discussed relevant issues related to the development of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles and new energy with experts and scholars in the field of new energy vehicles.
Among them, there are two issues that we are very concerned about, one is when fuel vehicles will be withdrawn from the market, and the other is the current development status of new energy vehicle batteries.
Dr. Lin Xinyou believes that the exit time of fuel vehicles depends on a variety of factors, and it is foreseeable that in the next 20 to 30 years, with the maturity of alternative technologies and the promotion of related policies, fuel vehicles will gradually be withdrawn from the market.
Seeing this statement, our first reaction was that we are worthy of being experts, and our statement is rigorous. If you only focus on the domestic market, and follow the current judgment of new energy vehicles, that is, pure electric, plug-in hybrid, and Zeng Cheng are all new energy vehicles, then it should not take 20 years for domestic fuel vehicles to withdraw from the market. Because from the state of last year to the present, many domestic independent brand manufacturers have fully transformed into new energy, and many models with some sales and fame before have also been plugged in hybrid or extended range.
Moreover, the latest market share also shows that relying on new energy vehicles, the market share of domestic cars has exceeded 65%, and it has completely become the majority, of which new energy vehicles are the absolute main force. Then the future situation, in fact, is very clear, independent brands are fully new energy, joint venture brands are passive new energy, if you do not follow the new energy, then only the fate of being eliminated or marginalized, this trend has been very obvious. Therefore, we believe that although there are indeed many influencing factors, it should not take 20 years for fuel vehicles to fully withdraw from the market in China......
Another question is the absolute core component of new energy vehicles, to what extent has power battery technology developed.
Some time ago, some domestic battery suppliers and OEMs claimed that they had developed solid-state batteries that can be mass-produced and put on the car, with a charging efficiency of 10 minutes and a range of 1,000 kilometers.
Dr. Lin Xinyou said that solid-state batteries have been hailed by some voices as the "ultimate technology" of electric vehicle power sources, which may be too advanced, and the development path of solid-state batteries requires laboratory verification technology, product verification process and commodity verification supply chain.
At the same time, Dr. Lin Xinyou also said that the solid-state batteries claimed by car companies such as GAC and Zhiji are actually semi-solid-state or quasi-solid-state, and technically do not fully meet the definition of pure solid-state batteries without liquid electrolytes. The development of all-solid-state batteries is still difficult and has not yet been commercialized on a large scale, mainly because of technical challenges and cost issues.
So at least in the expert's opinion, the current solid-state batteries claimed by Zhiji, GAC and other car companies are at most semi-solid and quasi-solid-state, and many small partners know that the gap between semi-solid-state and quasi-solid-state batteries and real solid-state batteries is still very large, so it is still a little inappropriate to promote mass production of solid-state batteries now.
All in all, judging from the current situation, the withdrawal or elimination of fuel vehicles is already the general trend, and what may be controversial is the issue of time, many joint venture brands and luxury brands feel that the time is still early, and the problem is not big; Domestic manufacturers and many commentators believe that it is imminent and time is running out! The expectations of industry experts are obviously very conservative, but the statements and expectations of the current situation of solid-state batteries are quite pertinent.