The 19th Road princes surrounded and suppressed the "King of Ning" and smashed down 45 billion

After obtaining a large injection of capital from six major car companies such as the new car representative "Wei Xiaoli", the unknown Sunwoda became a prominent figure in the power battery company for a while, and began to expand rapidly, hoping to seize the potential customers of the Ningde era. Such a "violation" of the Ningde era was difficult to happen a few years ago. In the eyes of some industry insiders, car companies hope to take back the initiative and avoid being stuck in the neck. Compared to the powerful "King of Ning", Sunwanda may be easier to deal with.

Car companies support power battery "rookies"

There is no shortage of market attention and capital heat in the field of power batteries, and then add new "traffic".

On March 11, Sunwoda Electric Vehicle Battery Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Sunwoda Electric Vehicle Battery") signed a project investment agreement with Zhuhai City, where the company will invest in the construction of Sunwoda New Energy Production Base Project in Zhuhai, Guangdong Province. The total investment of the project is 12 billion yuan, and the annual production capacity of power batteries and energy storage batteries after completion is 30GWh (GWh).

According to the estimation provided by the power battery supplier Guoxuan Hi-Tech, the average power battery capacity of each electric vehicle on the market is 50KWh (kWh), and 1GWh is 1 million KWh. According to this rough calculation, the production capacity of 1GWh power battery can be supported by about 20,000 electric vehicles, and the 30GWh production capacity of Sunwoda's automobile battery can meet the supporting needs of 600,000 electric vehicles per year.

Not only that, the "Finance world" weekly query found that in 2021, Sunwoda released a total of 45 billion yuan of investment, and will add a total of 90GWh of new production capacity in the next few years.

"The investment in 1GWh power battery production capacity is about 400 million to 500 million yuan (RMB), and the investment amount is very large." A senior executive of a head power battery company told the "Finance world" weekly that without stable orders from car companies, battery companies generally will not rush to expand production. "The more powerful battery companies will also require car companies to pay a 'security deposit' as a way to obtain funds to expand production."

Where does Sunwohn's market confidence come from? Just half a month ago, Sunwoda Electronics Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Sunwoda"), the parent company of Sunwoda Auto Battery, issued a capital increase announcement showing that 19 companies increased the capital of its Sunwoda Auto Battery by 2.43 billion yuan, with a total shareholding ratio of about 19.5% after the capital increase.

It is worth noting that among the 19 capital-injected enterprises, there are six powerful automobile companies, not only the new car-making enterprises Weilai, Xiaopeng and Ideal, but also the traditional car giants SAIC, GAC and Dongfeng.

Among them, Ideal and Xiaopeng affiliates have invested 400 million yuan to become the leading investors, and will hold 3.2% of the equity of Sunwoda Auto Battery after the capital increase, and Weilai affiliates will invest 250 million yuan, accounting for more than 2% of the equity. The three traditional car companies are relatively conservative, and SAIC, GAC and Dongfeng each invest about 50 million yuan.

In fact, before the huge expansion plan, few people in the general public had heard of Sunwoda. It is understood that Sunwoda has long focused on the supply of 3C consumer batteries. Liang Rui, vice president of Sunwoda, has publicly stated that the company's share of the mobile phone battery market has reached 30%, and it is the world's largest mobile phone battery supplier, which can be regarded as its most handy label. According to Sunwoda's 2020 financial report, the company's business is mainly concentrated in 3C consumer batteries, accounting for more than half of the revenue.

In the field of automotive power batteries, although Sunwoda has established an electric vehicle battery company in 2014, the market share has not been high, and it is difficult to say that it has too much ambition. According to the official information, by the end of 2021, Sunwoda's built power battery production capacity is about 10GWh. In 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of Sunwoda's domestic market is 2.06GWh, with a market share of 1.3%, which is only one-fortieth of the Ningde era, and the previous industry ranked outside the top ten.

The "rise" began in the second half of last year. According to public data, the installed capacity of Sunwoda power batteries began to start in the second half of 2021, and the single-month installed capacity began to enter the top ten list of the industry. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January 2022, Sunwoda's monthly installed capacity soared to eighth in the month, an increase of 409% year-on-year.

In the eyes of industry insiders, auto companies are trying to support the power battery manufacturer rookie to alleviate the pressure on production capacity and enhance the right to speak in the upstream supply chain.

Don't want to be "stuck in the neck", Wei Xiaoli attacked

Sunwoda has begun to receive orders from Wei Xiaoli.

In terms of cooperative models, Sunwoda was previously relatively marginal. In the list of new energy vehicles supplied by the company, the most well-known is the Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, which is the top seller of new energy vehicles, but the price is only about 30,000 yuan. Other cars that use Sunwoda products are relatively unknown, and most of them are plug-in hybrid models with low battery requirements.

Since 2021, Sunwoda has repeatedly issued announcements that it has obtained fixed orders from car companies, and the cooperation objects include Dongfeng Liuqi T5EV, Dongfeng Liuqi Lingzhi CM5EV, Dongfeng E70, GAC A9E, Geely Weirui Electric PMA Platform, SAIC-GM-Wuling E50 and CN220M HEV, SAIC Passenger Vehicle ZS12MCE HEV Project, etc.

Today, after obtaining equity endorsement, the products supplied by Sunwoda have entered the mainstream. "Finance World" Weekly learned that Xiaopeng's upcoming flagship SUV product, G9, will use Sunwoda's battery. As a preparation for cooperation, the G3 SUV model currently on sale by Xiaopeng has begun to partially assemble Sunwoda's batteries.

Before 2020, Xiaopeng's batteries were almost all from the Ningde era, and according to the statistics of the Starting Point Research Institute, this proportion will drop to about 80% in 2021. Statistics from soochow Securities Research Institute show that In 2020, Xiaopeng will account for about 7% of the installed battery capacity of the Ningde era, making it the third largest customer in the Ningde era. Another new shareholder of Sunwoda, Weilai, will account for about 14% of CATL's shipments in 2020.

Car companies "supporting" Sunwoda is not good news for the Ningde era. Although Ideal and Weilai have not yet disclosed their plans to use Sunwoda batteries for their products, it seems to the outside world that after becoming a shareholder of Sunwoda, the future cooperation is logical. At present, WEILAI's batteries are all provided by CATL and are the second largest customer in NINGDE after Tesla.

"Car companies pay for the equity of core power battery manufacturers, which was difficult to happen a few years ago." An industry insider revealed to the "Finance world" weekly that in the cooperation with leading battery manufacturers, car companies pay money, but they can only book "production capacity".

"Finance and Economics" weekly learned that the previous leading battery manufacturers usually use the "package production line" method in terms of capacity allocation, that is, car companies "buy" the production line for more than one year of production capacity, and car companies need to make expectations for battery demand in the next five to ten years, and subsequent capacity delivery can be promoted. In the years when the technical advantages and production capacity are concentrated in a few enterprises, power battery companies obtain funds through this method to support technology research and development and capacity expansion.

Behind this, in the traditional supply chain, the main engine factory has occupied a dominant position for a long time, but in the field of new energy vehicles, the situation is completely different: the power battery accounts for more than one-third of the cost of electric vehicles, so the right to speak in the supply chain is more in the hands of power battery companies, especially the head power battery suppliers. Car companies waiting in line and seeking cooperation have become the norm.

In fact, the situation that new car manufacturers are "stuck neck" by power battery companies has already occurred.

In February this year, Xiaopeng Automobile explained the delay in delivery of the Xiaopeng P5 460E model, saying that the delivery delay was mainly affected by the extremely tight supply of major components such as lithium iron phosphate batteries. Public information shows that the Xiaopeng P5 460E is equipped with a lithium iron phosphate battery pack provided for the Ningde era. In March 2021, Li Bin, founder of WEIO, also said that battery supply was the biggest bottleneck in the growth of delivery in the second quarter of the same year.

"Finance and Economics" weekly review of the car complaint website found that "delivery delay" has become a high incidence of auto complaints this year, involving car companies including Xiaopeng, Euler, BYD and so on. The reason for the delay in delivery is mostly the shortage of power batteries and chips.

Public data shows that the cumulative domestic loading of power batteries produced by the Ningde era in 2021 is 80.51Gwh. In the global market, CATL is also a leader, ranking first in the global power battery loading volume for many years.

From the perspective of cooperative enterprises, in the domestic market, the cooperation territory of the Ningde era has covered new car-making forces, European and American car companies, Japanese and Korean car companies and independent brand car companies.

This also determines that the NINGDE era has long played a "heart" role in the supply chain. There is anecdotal news that the automobile company sent special personnel to Fujian to queue up and squat in the Ningde era, just to get more supply. But for the cooperative relationship with car companies, Zeng Yuqun, chairman of CATL, said that the logic behind it is very simple, "The promise of no money is not serious." ”

Nowadays, the revolutionary technology of power batteries has not yet appeared, and the technology is relatively stable at this stage, which provides an opportunity for car companies to "get back" the right to speak.

In the eyes of industry insiders, the reason why Sunwoda was selected by car companies has a lot to do with the company's relatively perfect layout in the lithium battery industry chain. "Sunwoda not only includes the battery Pack business, but also completed the layout of the battery cell business with higher technical content upstream of lithium batteries through equity acquisition earlier." In addition, due to the small market share, auto companies are also considered to have easier control over the right to speak in cooperation.

In fact, in order to ensure supply chain security and discourse power, many car companies are expanding the power battery supplier system, and even directly set up power battery companies to reduce the degree of binding with the Ningde era.

For the Ningde era, some auto companies have taken a tougher attitude. According to media reports, in order to ensure the supply of batteries, GAC's new energy business began to cultivate alternative suppliers, AVIC Lithium Battery (now Zhongxin Airlines), as early as 2018, and by mid-2019, Zhongxin Airlines had replaced ningde times as the first supplier of power batteries in GAC's independent system.

"The business of independent brand new energy vehicles has developed rapidly, and the relative supporting system is more pragmatic and flexible." In the view of Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association of Automobile Associations, the self-allocation rate of The Hive Energy under Great Wall Motors has reached 40%, and BYD's battery business has moved from self-allocation to openness, which proves that "self-made batteries of car companies are an inevitable choice." ”

On March 10 this year, GAC Aean's self-developed power battery trial production line was piled up and began to land on its own battery business. In the past year, Tesla, Weilai and Xiaopeng, which are more deeply tied to the Ningde era and rank in the top three in installed capacity, have been rumored to be looking for new partners.

The next "King of Ning" is rising?

Even if Sunwoda expands production rapidly, it is still difficult to compete with the Ningde era in the short term.

As of the close of trading on March 14, the market value of the Ningde era was 1.08 trillion yuan, compared with the Value of the Sunwoda A stock market of less than 47 billion yuan, less than one-twentieth of the Ningde Era.

"Finance and Economics" Weekly learned that power battery companies from the expansion of production capacity to the formation of stable production capacity, it is expected to take about two years. "The battery investment and construction cycle is about two years, and the upstream raw material investment cycle is about three years." An industry source said, "On the one hand, the release of new power battery capacity takes time, on the other hand, the supply of raw materials and materials will continue to be tight in the past two years." ”

In fact, the Ningde era is also stepping up production expansion. According to the 2021 semi-annual report of CATL, in the first half of 2021, CATL has a production capacity of 92.5Gwh under construction. It is understood that CATL has previously built 5 major production bases, and its current total planned production capacity is nearly 400GWh. In addition, CATL is also trying to build joint ventures with car companies on a small scale in response to the latter's demand to increase its right to speak.

More importantly, in addition to production capacity and technology, the Ningde era has been laid out in upstream raw materials, which are the "moats" of the Ningde era.

However, the potential opponent of the Ningde era is not only The Sunwoda, which was selected by the car company to "passively attack", with the continuous growth of power battery demand, the armament race of major power battery manufacturers has begun. Since 2021, the top ten companies in the industry have successively announced a number of battery expansion plans. According to battery network statistics, as of December 2021, the total planned production capacity of the top 10 enterprises in domestic power battery competitiveness has exceeded 2700GWh.

Against the backdrop of the herds, change has taken place. From January to February 2022, although it still ranked in the top 1 of domestic power battery companies, the market share of the Ningde era fell from 50.2% to 48%, followed by BYD and Zhongxin Airlines, and the market share increased, increasing to 21.2% and 8.4% respectively. In 2021, the monthly market share of the NINGDE era market will be more than 50%.

Some industry insiders believe that a big reason why car companies are now looking for new suppliers is because of the limited production capacity of "Ning Wang", and car companies have begun to seek "two supplies" and "three supplies" to create a more stable supply chain system, not to "replace" the Ningde era. The supply pressure from the upstream has been transmitted to the market terminal, and the shortage of power battery supply has begun to restrict the pace of new car delivery of car companies, which will directly affect the profitability of car companies.

"Many of the current expansion projects are concentrated in the construction of low-end production capacity, and the attraction to car companies is not high." Moreover, combined with the characteristics of the industry, blind expansion is also accompanied by the risk of capital chain breakage. The above-mentioned industry insiders said.

Even if there are many expansion plans, but the final landing and the formation of effective production capacity is still limited, car companies need to take the initiative, which also gives the market share of relatively small second-line power battery suppliers opportunities. In the view of industry insiders, although the status of the Ningde era is difficult to shake in the short term, the market space for power battery companies to compete for victory and defeat is still huge.

Behind this, the high-quality production capacity of power batteries is still in short supply. Entering 2022, the "power battery shortage" in the new energy automobile industry has intensified. According to South Korean market research firm SNE Research, by 2023, the global demand for electric vehicles for power batteries will reach 406GWh, while the supply is expected to be 335GWh, and the power battery supply gap will exist for a long time.

But the existing capacity is obviously overwhelmed. "The current battery gap ranges between 30% and 50%," Yang Hongxin, chairman and CEO of Hive Energy, predicted that the supply of power batteries will be in a state of shortage until 2025.

This is especially true domestically. According to the China Automobile Association, domestic new energy vehicle sales will reach 5 million in 2022, an increase of 42% year-on-year. According to the data of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the installed capacity of power batteries in mainland China will be 154.5GWh in 2021, an increase of 142.8% year-on-year. Huaan Securities predicts that the installed capacity of domestic power batteries will reach 230GWh in 2022.

Under the huge market space, the opponents of the Ningde era can continue to share the cake and get more ammunition with the support of car companies. For "Ning Wang", the future competition may have just begun.