I don't know if you remember, before we covered the Guoxuan Hi-Tech for everyone, in-depth analysis of its fundamentals and main logic, and then these days to see a message, let me be very worried about its main logic is not to be falsified, hurry up to see what is going on?
The main logic of Guoxuan Hi-Tech
When covering Guoxuan Hi-Tech before, it was said that its core logic was: the advent of the new energy era, especially the great development of new energy vehicles. The main logic is that it is deeply bound to Volkswagen's new energy vehicle business: Volkswagen China holds 26.47% of the shares of Guoxuan Hi-Tech and is the company's largest shareholder.
Volkswagen as a global fuel vehicle giant, the response to the new energy vehicle wave is the most positive, the transformation attitude is very resolute, the action is also very fast, in other fuel vehicle giants for the new energy vehicle business is also a rat trap, it launched the MEB pure electric platform, and then based on this platform like dumplings crazy launched ID family series, the key Volkswagen ID series sales are also good, there is also a good market volume.
If Volkswagen's new energy vehicle business develops well, then Gaoxuan Hi-Tech is expected to benefit, and this logic is reasonable. However, when I recently tracked Guoxuan Hi-Tech, I found a news about the public, which made me worry about this main logic of Guoxuan Hi-Tech!
Volkswagen's development in the new energy vehicle business may have encountered relatively large setbacks, especially in the Chinese market!
In January, there was a news Volkswagen (China) executive vice president Su Weiming confirmed that he had left the Volkswagen Group, and then there was news, he left the company to found Binli Intelligent Technology, obtained a strategic investment of 10 billion yuan from Changjiang Capital, the two sides will jointly establish a new energy automobile industry fund, not excluding the construction of a passenger car industry base in Wuhan, while building an upstream and downstream supply chain ecology around the production of complete vehicles.
Why does this news reflect the possible setbacks in Volkswagen's development in the new energy vehicle business? This must be said su Weiming this person.
Who is Su Weiming?
A native of Singapore, Su weiming is an absolute figure in the automotive industry, having served as CEO of Renault China, executive vice president of Volkswagen China, and executive vice president of Volkswagen Group Global.
In the Volkswagen Group, such a high rank, no foreign personnel have ever been able to do it before, Su Weiming is the first, and the reason why he can become the first is because of his outstanding contribution to the Volkswagen Group.
According to some media reports, 10 years ago, Su Weiming saw the huge demand for SUVs in the Chinese market, so he promoted the release of a strong SUV strategy, and later, he, insight into the huge market for China's B-class cars, led the Volkswagen Group to introduce Passat and Magotan from Germany, and helped Volkswagen achieve great success in the field of B-class cars.
In the 16 years since joining Volkswagen in 2005 as Executive Vice President of Volkswagen China, he has led Volkswagen to several times doubling its domestic sales, from 710,000 units in 2006 to 3.85 million vehicles in 2020, and to a peak of 4.23 million in 2019.
It was also during his tenure that he saw the development potential of new energy vehicles early on, and successively served as the director and CEO of Yichao Intelligent and the chairman of Kaimeisi Energy, the former mainly doing intelligent travel, and the latter mainly doing new energy vehicle energy supplementation related business. Volkswagen's stake in Jianghuai Automobile is also led by him.
Jianghuai we all know that because of the help of Weilai OEM, it has become one of the most beautiful boys in the new energy automobile industry.
There must be various reasons for such a cattle person to leave, the specific reasons we do not know, but it is afraid that it will have a relatively large impact on volkswagen, especially Volkswagen China's business, especially the new energy vehicle business.
In fact, even if it is not Su Weiming's departure, it is always difficult for traditional giants to change when facing a new industry future.
This point has been explained before in the analysis of why china's automobile industry is strongly optimistic about the unprecedented opportunity faced by the new energy vehicle era.
Logic is likely to be falsified
In addition to China's layout of new energy vehicles relatively early, now has a relatively complete new energy vehicle industry chain, but also because China's foundation in the era of fuel vehicles is too thin, but can be lightly loaded on the road, on the contrary, the fuel vehicle giant in the era of fuel vehicles is too successful, the greater the pressure of transformation, reform is never easy, on the contrary, often nine deaths, after all, involving the interests of too many people.
Then went to check the sales of the Volkswagen ID family in the past few months, did not see a single month of data, only said that the first quarter of Volkswagen's total sales in the mainland and Hong Kong Xinneng car sales of 38,700 vehicles, an average of less than 13,000 vehicles a month, to know that Volkswagen ID has been on sale models have 5 models, this sales is certainly not ideal, and it is likely that Volkswagen executives have divergent on the business development of the ID series.
If this is the case, for the long term, It is more troublesome for Guoxuan Hi-Tech, after all, the main logic of Guoxuan Hi-Tech is to be deeply bound to the Volkswagen Group, and if Volkswagen's new energy strategy fails, the performance of Guoxuan Hi-Tech will naturally be affected.
We all know that with the development of the industry more and more, the differentiation of the power battery business will become smaller and smaller, in the end, in fact, it is all about the industrial chain, who can have a more perfect industrial chain layout, who has cost and sales advantages, there is a chance to get more market share, which is also the reason why the giants in the upstream and downstream of the lithium battery industry have desperately penetrated each other in the past few years.
Of course, it does not mean that Guoxuan Hi-Tech is really going to be finished, after all, it is only worried that Volkswagen's new energy vehicle transformation may be frustrated, but it does not mean that he has failed to transform.
Secondly, even if It is said that Volkswagen's new energy vehicle transformation is not so successful, the camel that died is bigger than Ma, and it is still expected to contribute a good business volume to Guoxuan.
Taking 10,000 steps back, even if the public transformation of new energy is very unsuccessful, can not contribute too much performance to Guoxuan, but Guoxuan Hi-Tech's current layout in the industrial chain is relatively complete, as an independent lithium battery company is also OK, in the era of new energy vehicle development, he still has a chance, after all, its fundamental logic is: the huge opportunity after the advent of new energy vehicles.
It can only be said that now that the main logic has signs of being initially falsified, then when you pay attention to Guoxuan Hi-Tech later, you must take this factor into account, or the binding with the public cannot give too high a valuation.
It's always good to be cautious!