According to the January retailer retail ranking released by the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Changan Automobile ranked second, setting a new high in the ranking of Chinese brands in recent years, while SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM, which had long dominated the top three, lagged behind Changan Automobile and Geely Automobile; at the same time, BMW Brilliance actually squeezed into the top ten, ranking ninth.
In this regard, some people may ask whether the drastic changes in the sales ranking of manufacturers at the beginning of the new year indicate that the competitive landscape of the automobile market will change in the future.
01
The rise of Chinese brands is the trend of the times
In the January retail and wholesale sales rankings of manufacturers released by the Association of Automobile, in addition to Changan Automobile's second ranking hit a new high, Geely Automobile also entered the top three in the ranking of wholesale sales, and BYD led the top ten manufacturers in sales with a growth rate of more than 100%.
In addition, Chery Automobile, which is in the rebound cycle, has also entered the top ten of wholesale sales for a long time, allowing Chinese brands to occupy 5 seats in the top ten rankings.
Perhaps the one-month sales ranking is not enough to explain the trend of the next year, but the momentum of the rise of Chinese brands is traceable.
First, Chinese brands already have the strength to compete for the top in sales. If someone says that january's sales ranking may be accidental, then last year's full-year sales ranking must be convincing.
In the retail sales ranking of manufacturers in the whole year released by the Association of Automobile Manufacturers last year, there are three Of the top ten Chinese brands, namely Geely Automobile (fourth), Changan Automobile (sixth), and Great Wall Motor (eighth); and then the range of rankings to the top fifteen is BYD Automobile (thirteenth) and Chery Automobile (fifteenth).
Second, in this round of competition, Chinese brands already have some comparative advantages.
In recent years, Geely Automobile is a frequent customer in the top ten sales of manufacturers, and has laid out 4 brands (Geely, Lynk & Co, Extreme Krypton, Geometry), covering new energy, mainstream Chinese brands, high-end brands, and last year, Geely Automobile also gradually switched its models to the framework of technology 4.0;
Changan Automobile is the fastest growing retail sales among the top ten manufacturers last year, and the complete system capability has spawned a number of explosive models, and the former new energy shortcomings will be made up this year (C385);
Last year, Great Wall Motors solved the shackles of relying solely on Haval H6, exploring a differentiated route in the field of new energy (Euler, women's market), which is an industry benchmark;
BYD's plug-in, mixed, pure electric explosion needless to say, Chery has also begun to enter the harvest period of the new energy era.
In addition, when the chip shortage has not yet been solved, the above-mentioned Chinese brands have more initiatives than joint venture brands in adjusting the supply of parts, so the impact will be smaller.
02
Mainstream joint venture brands have not significantly declined, but the challenges have intensified
Compared with the market before the epidemic, the mainstream joint venture brand has not been able to fully dominate the list now, in addition to the FAW-Volkswagen, which has rapidly completed the SUV product line in the past two or three years, is still at the top of the manufacturer's sales ranking, the sales rankings of SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM have fluctuated, and Dongfeng Nissan, which has an upward momentum, has declined under the influence of the Qijun storm.
At first glance, the mainstream joint venture brands are beginning to decline, but it is still too early to draw this conclusion. FAW-Volkswagen is now almost invincible sales scale aside, under the influence of lack of core, SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC-GM last year's annual manufacturer retail ranking is still ranked second and third, and its models such as Langyi and Buick GL8 are still the head models of the market segment. In addition, the low-key North-South Toyota has maintained steady growth last year, and the complete SUV product line that has been built is also a new sales point.
However, in addition to the impact of the lack of cores, the challenges faced by mainstream joint venture brands are indeed intensifying, manifested in two aspects:
First, the upward movement of the head Chinese brand has formed a positive competition with the mainstream joint venture brand;
Second, compared with Chinese brands and new car-making forces, the investment of mainstream joint venture brands in the field of new energy, especially in the field of pure electric vehicles, is slower.
According to the Association of Passenger Vehicles, the traditional fuel passenger car market continues to decline: 8% in 2019, 8% in 2020 and 6% in 2021. Correspondingly, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased rapidly, with the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reaching 16.6% in January, an increase of 10 percentage points year-on-year; among them, the retail penetration rate of Chinese brands reached 31.4%, while the retail penetration rate of mainstream joint venture brands was only 2.5%.
At the end of last year, Toyota suddenly announced full electrification, and Volkswagen has also entered the field of pure electric vehicles through the ID series. Although the system capabilities of these global car companies are strong enough, they are slow after all, and even if they can catch up with the rapid growth of the domestic new energy market, it will take some time.
03
BMW Brilliance entered the top ten, indicating the activity of the luxury car market
BMW Brilliance entered the top ten of manufacturers' retail sales in January, which is indeed surprising. You know, this has never been done before, after all, even if it is a domestic BMW from BMW Brilliance, its average price is a grade higher than that of mainstream joint venture brands, compared with the domestic consumption structure, the high price of the car will buy fewer people.
So BMW Brilliance ranked ninth this time, and why?
Here, the author will boldly guess: BMW Brilliance's retail sales in January are artificially suspected.
BMW Brilliance's retail sales last year totaled 602,000 units, with an average monthly retail sales of 50,000 units, but its retail sales in December last year were only 39,000 units, compared with a sudden increase of 89,000 units in January this year. This will make people wonder that BMW Brilliance may have saved last December's data until January this year.
So what is its purpose? Recently, BMW Group announced that its equity in BMW Brilliance has officially risen from 50% to 75% since February 11, becoming the first joint venture car company to successfully adjust its share ratio. In the car circle, car companies often pursue the opening of the door, in the context of equity adjustment, BMW Brilliance's move may have the possibility of pleasing the omen. Of course, maybe BMW Brilliance's move has no purpose.
However, behind BMW Brilliance's entry into the top ten, everyone should also pay attention to the activity of the luxury car market. According to the data of the Association of Automobile Associations, in the absence of cores, the domestic luxury car market last year grew at a year-on-year growth rate of 4.9%, higher than the average growth rate of the industry, BMW (820,000 vehicles, an increase of 8.3%), Mercedes-Benz (740,000 vehicles, down 3.6%), Audi (690,000 vehicles, down 5.5%) also performed well.
The tide of domestic consumption upgrading is benefiting luxury brands and high-end new energy vehicle brands. As a result, luxury brands such as BMW have gradually increased their investment in the Chinese market.
Written in the end: Perhaps the sales data in January does not need to be interpreted too much, but under the influence of consumption upgrades, the rise of Chinese brands, the rapid increase in new energy penetration, chip shortage, etc., the competitive landscape of the domestic passenger car market will inevitably change. However, it remains to be seen whether Chinese brands can make a breakthrough in this regard and whether mainstream joint venture brands will shuffle their cards.