Pay attention to and often read the tram lab punch card to think about new energy insights
Fastest this year, latest next year.
Written by: CH_ Chen Han
In the past 2021, the domestic automobile market ushered in the explosive growth of new energy vehicles, and the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in the whole year were 2.989 million units, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year, and the penetration rate has exceeded 14.8%.
In other words, for every 100 new cars sold in China in 2021, nearly 15 are new energy vehicles.
Under such a strong outlet, in 2021, domestic new car manufacturers have handed over eye-catching report cards, and the sales volume of Xiaopeng, Weilai and Ideal delivery is 98,115 vehicles, 91,429 vehicles and 90,491 vehicles respectively, all of which are close to the 100,000 mark.
Compared with traditional manufacturers such as Volkswagen, General Motors, and Toyota, the annual sales of 100,000 may not be a great achievement, but it should be known that the sales performance of the three new car heads in 2021 has surpassed Mitsubishi, Peugeot, Citroen, Jeep, Infiniti, Acura and other brands that we are familiar with. More importantly, the rapid sales growth of new car manufacturers is still continuing.
So, how far are they from the next level, "200,000 sales a year"?
01
Tesla's "lessons from the past."
Before discussing the sales prospects of domestic new car manufacturers, let's first look at how Tesla broke through the annual sales of 200,000 units.
As we all know, Tesla was founded in 2003 and in 2008 opened the delivery of the first product, the Roadster, a two-door electric sports car. Subsequently, in 2012, the second product Tesla Model S began to be delivered, and in 2015, the third product Model X began to be delivered, these two high-end products have supported Tesla to enter the world's major auto markets, established a good brand image, and exceeded the annual sales of 100,000 units.
At the end of 2017, the epoch-making Tesla Model 3 began to be delivered, and Tesla has since entered the overtaking lane of sales growth.
In 2018, Tesla's sales exceeded the 200,000 mark in one fell swoop, and in 2019, it exceeded the 300,000 mark.
In 2020, Tesla's fifth product, Model Y, began to be delivered, and Tesla is just one step away from the 500,000 sales mark.
Tesla's sales in 2021 are close to the 1 million mark.
Looking back at Tesla's sales growth trend, we can see that Tesla broke through the annual sales mark of 200,000 after the 15th and 4th product deliveries, and its achievement includes two prerequisites:
1. The brand is widely recognized
The first three products, the Roadster, Model S and Model X, set the brand benchmark for Tesla.
2. There is a "blockbuster" model
In one fell swoop, the Model 3 transforms the advantages accumulated in the early stage into a steady stream of sales.
02
Who is more dramatic about "Wei Xiaoli"?
After reading Tesla's "lessons from the past", let's take a look at the situation of the three new car heads.
Among the "Wei Xiaoli" in 2022, the most promising target of 200,000 vehicles per year should be Xiaopeng. Xiaopeng, which won the first place in the sales of new cars last year, is the most reasonable model layout among the three at present.
The three models of Xiaopeng G3, Xiaopeng P7 and Xiaopeng P5 are positioned in the mainstream price range of 150,000-300,000, and have become the head products of their respective market segments. They have a broader market prospects, and the corresponding fuel vehicle market sales are huge, with the outstanding advantages of intelligence, Xiaopeng is expected to further improve the conversion efficiency, thereby improving sales performance.
In January, Xiaopeng Motors continued to maintain rapid growth, with deliveries reaching 12,922 units, including 6,707 Xiaopeng P7, 4,029 Xiaopeng P5 and 2,186 Xiaopeng G3 series.
The Xiaopeng G9, which is about to open pre-sales in April and deliver in the third quarter, will be the key to Xiaopeng Automobile's brand upward breakthrough and sales breakthrough once again.
The Xiaopeng G9 is positioned as a medium-sized pure electric SUV and is expected to be priced in the range of 300,000-400,000. The new car has been unveiled at last year's Guangzhou Auto Show, its exterior design has been widely acclaimed, in the aspect of intelligence that Xiaopeng is best at, it will be equipped with the new XPILOT 4.0 and Xmart OS 4.0 system, which can realize point-to-point auxiliary driving functions and higher-level intelligent cockpit functions.
Although there have been controversies before, with the gradual display of product strength and technical strength, Xiaopeng's brand image has been recognized by the market, and Xiaopeng P7 and Xiaopeng G9 have the potential to become "explosive models".
At the beginning of the year, Xiaopeng Automobile has announced its sales target for 2022: to ensure annual sales of 250,000 vehicles, impacting 300,000 vehicles. With 12,922 deliveries in January, this means that in the remaining 11 months, Xiaopeng still needs to complete more than 230,000 sales, with an average of more than 21,000 vehicles per month, which is a huge challenge.
For Weilai, if it wants to break through the annual sales of 200,000 vehicles in 2022, the task will be more arduous.
Since there are no new cars throughout the year, in 2021, WEILAI will sit firmly for 3 years in the sales of new cars, and in 2022, WEILAI will be the most new products in the first three, and the WEILAI ET7, WEILAI ET5 and WEILAI ES7 based on the new platform of NT2.0 will be handed over to users this year. However, for their sales, we need to make conservative estimates for the time being.
Weilai's high-end image has been widely recognized, and now it only lacks one explosive model, but it is not easy to create a blockbuster. The NIO ET7, which will be delivered first in March, is positioned as a medium- and large pure electric sedan with a starting price of more than 400,000 yuan. In this price range, it is difficult for Chinese brands to obtain strong market performance.
The undeveloped WEILAI ES7 is positioned between ES6 and ES8, the price will certainly not be low, and there may be a certain competitive relationship with existing products, which will not help much for sales increases.
Niolai's first "explosive" model should be another car, the NIO ET5, which is positioned as a medium-sized pure electric coupe, with a starting price of 328,000 yuan before subsidies, and a starting price of 258,000 yuan after using BaaS battery rental. Whether it is the price range or the model positioning, it determines that WEILAI ET5 has great potential for "explosive models", but its delivery time may not be until the end of the third quarter, and how much it can contribute to the overall sales this year is still unknown for the time being.
Nio delivered 9,652 units in January, and achieving annual sales of 200,000 units this year means that the average monthly sales of more than 17,000 units in the remaining 11 months will be required. It cannot be said that there is no opportunity at all, but for Weilai, the average price of products in the first three quarters will still be close to 400,000 yuan, the odds are indeed relatively low.
However, Weilai doesn't seem to care about this either. Among the first three, Weilai's product layout is the closest to Tesla, with reference to Tesla's experience, after the lower price of Weilai ET5 in 2023 began to exert force, it was the time when Weilai's sales broke out.
On the ideal side, thanks to the accurate product positioning, the ideal has achieved annual sales of nearly 100,000 units with the ideal ONE product alone, and the average price of the product has exceeded 300,000 yuan.
The two prerequisites for the previously mentioned annual sales of 200,000: brand recognition and "explosive models", the ideal is not lacking.
Ideal only has 1 new car this year, and the ideal X01 product rhythm positioned in a large range extender SUV is similar to that of the Xiaopeng G9, which will be unveiled in April and delivered in the second half of the year.
From the information currently known, the X01 will have stronger driving assistance capabilities and will be equipped with a four-cylinder range extender, but in essence, its core competitiveness is not much different from the ideal ONE. At present, the market for high-end range extender SUVs is still in a blank state, and how much potential it has is still unknown.
In January, the ideal ONE continued to sell well, with deliveries reaching 12,268 units, as one of the most suitable models for the two-tire family at the current price of 300,000, it should continue to refresh better market performance, but this year to achieve annual sales of 200,000, the key is to see whether X01 can become a "hit" again.
03
Are there any opportunities for other "new cars"?
There is no doubt that the sales of new cars will continue to grow at a high speed in 2022, but the annual sales of 200,000 are a huge challenge for them. This is still true for the first three, and it is even more true for other new car manufacturers.
Nezha's january deliveries surpassed WEILAI's, reaching 11,009 units, but how much upside potential will Nezha, which focuses on the low-end market and the B-end market, have this year? Can the high-end flagship sedan Nezha S be recognized by the market? Both of these issues will determine its subsequent sales trend.
Weima and zero running, the former fell from the first echelon to the second echelon in the past two years, and there is a trend of falling out of the second echelon, this year's fate will be pressed on the flagship sedan Weima M7; the latter focuses on the ultimate cost performance, some models even lose money, "200,000 pure electric cost performance ceiling" Zero run C11 has the potential to become a "blockbuster", but whether this model can be sustained, it also needs to be marked with a big question mark.
Among the new car manufacturers incubated by traditional car companies, Extreme Kr and Lantu have a strong upward trend, but due to the late start, the annual sales of 200,000 should be the target for them next year or the year after.
"Fastest this year, latest next year".
In 2019, when someone on the Internet had such a "prediction" that Weilai would sooner or later go out of business, although we all knew the results and did not come true, this sentence was very appropriate to our topic today.
The "annual sales of 200,000" of new cars will definitely come, and "the fastest this year, the latest next year".
The question is simply, who will be the first to achieve it?
Today's topic
Who can take the lead in selling 200,000 new cars per year?
Feel free to leave a message in the comment area
Scan the code to add the operation assistant and make notes
Join the Tram Lab AC group