The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, along with digital empowerment, energy transition, and extreme climate change, has become the background of the upcoming 2021.
Corporate debt restructuring and the plight of the real estate industry, as well as the pain of Internet manufacturers, like falling below the 1% birth rate, put economic issues in front of people; digital currency, metacosmity, NTF is becoming a hot word, frequently interpreted by experts and the media; the congestion of the Panama Canal, the suspension of global flights, and the chip supply that caught all car companies off guard, in the past year, we are gradually perceived.
In 2021, we are deeply aware that red does not mean an increase, it may be traced, quarantined health code; green, does not mean a decline, that is an administrative security boundary with the new crown virus that has been raging for two years. From Delta to Omicron, multiple rounds of mutated strains challenge the common destiny of humanity, and masks are still as necessary as mobile phones. If a confirmed case is revealed, it means that our journey and behavior patterns are about to be completely reversed. The public is accustomed to the possibility that their lives may be interrupted at any time, but they still retain confidence in the future.
This year, China launched a double-carbon agenda, new energy vehicle sales exceeded 3 million, new car-making forces ushered in a highlight moment in the second half of the year, Musk also went to the peak of his life... As in any previous year, the automotive industry in 2021 has both joys and sorrows, rolling water in the east of the Yangtze River, and the waves are exhausting heroes. Although it is said that the success or failure turns to the void, the jianghu jun is still here, together with you, with the cold frost and snow of the same proud years.
Looking back at those helpless moments of 2021
In the dream, the heart song. Where the intestines are broken, by him. And listen to the jianghu jun tell the helplessness and sadness that belong to 2021.
Keywords: missing core
"Chip", "chip", "chip", these two words have never made the automobile company dream and worry about the stomach like now.
Throughout 2021, the situation of "lack of cores" in automobiles has intensified, and dozens of car companies around the world have been forced to stop production due to chip shortages. Due to the increase in handheld devices in the epidemic stage, the demand for chip suppliers and automakers has been disrupted. In terms of external environment such as temperature, humidity, dust, etc., automotive chips require extremely high tolerance; in terms of service life, general consumer electronics chips are also 1 to 3 years, but the requirements of automotive chips are at least 15 years... This thankless business has allowed some 8-inch fabs to transform and close. The supply and demand of the 8-inch wafer needed by the automotive industry has been broken, and the pain of "lack of core" has become the consensus of the automotive industry in 2021.
On December 27, When Jianghujun went to the storefront of a joint venture dealership in Beijing to see the car, the salesperson said frankly, "If you place an order now, it is estimated that the car can be mentioned around March." "Due to the shortage of chips, the pace of supply has been disrupted. In first-tier cities such as Beijing, almost no dealer can firmly confirm the proportion of various models in the manufacturer's next batch of goods, and can only give customers who buy cars a rough delivery time period. Such a situation does not only exist in the joint venture model, but also imports and independent products are involved to varying degrees.
According to the latest data from AutoForecastSolutions, as of the end of November, due to chip shortages, the global auto market has reduced production by more than 10 million vehicles this year, of which the cumulative production reduction in the Chinese auto market has reached 2 million. The order fulfillment rate of automotive chips is even less than 20%, which has aroused deep concern in the industry.
Keyword: price increase
For the automotive industry, the price of almost all raw materials has ushered in an overwhelming surge in 2021.
In the third quarter, PVC (polyvinyl chloride) manufacturers significantly raised the factory quotation, some manufacturers even sealed, futures once rose and stopped. Experts in the PVC industry use "one price a day" to describe this material market, which is the second most used in various synthetic materials in the world. You know, PVC is an important raw material for automobiles. Taking the BMW brand as an example, in its sustainability report, it is disclosed that bmw's current global use of automotive plastics has accounted for more than 30% of the total vehicle parts.
At the same time, the price of iron ore in the futures market also hit a new high in 7 years in 2021 - steel mill prices were adjusted, all steel prices have risen, and an increase of 500 yuan / ton is the new normal. The much-watched rebar rose more than 12% in 30 days.
Manufacturing use is second only to steel materials, non-aluminum. Aluminium is vital to the automotive industry: all-aluminium engines, bodywork, wheel hubs, horns in suspension systems, swing arms and roof racks are all used. On the domestic Shanghai Stock Exchange, the main price of Shanghai aluminum hit a new high in 15 years. Aluminum prices have risen by 120% from 11,000 yuan / ton last year, and the downstream industry is miserable.
Affected by the sharp rise in the price of upstream original sheets, the cost of glass enterprises has risen significantly, and original film companies have extended the industrial chain to the downstream deep processing field, and at the end of 2021, the automotive industry will usher in another increase in glass price costs.
Since the third quarter of 2021, Shandong Yuanfeng Tire, Shandong Yousheng Tire, Shandong Yinbao Tire, Shandong SIA Tire, Hankook Tire and many other tires have issued price increase letters saying that they will increase the price of tires from October. Since the beginning of 2021, more than 80 tire companies around the world have announced price increases. The brands we can call out, as well as the brands equipped with their own cars, such as Michelin, Goodyear, Dunlop, Bridgestone and other tire manufacturers have opened multiple rounds of price increases this year. By the end of 2021, the price increase has even reached 6%.
Lithium battery components are also important raw materials in the automotive industry, lithium batteries in the most critical cathode materials, including lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc., have risen to varying degrees this year, some raw materials compared to the beginning of this year has increased by more than 200%. It is reported that the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has jumped by more than 50% in one month.
Keywords: real estate developers build cars
The vigorous car-making movement has become tricky because of the strong entry of real estate capital.
Wanda, Baoneng, Huaxia Happiness, Country Garden, Evergrande... These well-known enterprises in China's real estate industry have all sown seeds and cultivated in the new energy automobile industry. The reason for this can be simply attributed to the rapid growth of the two major assets of going to sea and financialization have been curbed, the ceiling of the real estate industry itself is about to peak, real estate capital needs to find a new industry that can undertake massive capital, the return cycle is relatively reasonable, and the manufacturing of new energy vehicles and related industries undoubtedly meets the conditions. As the largest industrial industry, the automobile industry is a sunrise industry, with a large volume and high capital demand, which is the best track for the transformation of the real estate industry.
In 2017, Baoneng Group invested nearly 100 billion yuan to establish new energy vehicle production bases in Hangzhou, Kunming, Guangzhou, Xi'an and other places, with a total planned production capacity of 2.3 million vehicles. And acquired a 51% stake in Qoros Automobile; in 2018, Evergrande took over FaradayFuture from Jia Yueting, announcing its entry into the field of new energy vehicles. As of 2021, at least 18 real estate companies in China have laid out new energy vehicles or their industrial chains, including Vanke, Wanda, Greenland, Country Garden, Evergrande, Huaxia Happiness, R&F, Agile and Baoneng.
In 2021, Evergrande and Baoneng will become a failure case of real estate capital investment in new energy vehicles.
Due to changes in the financial environment and the rules of the real estate game, they are saddled with huge debts. The auto sector, which has been losing money for many years, not only cannot support the main business, but also further exacerbates the debt crisis. On March 31, Evergrande released its 2020 results, and by July, the market value of China Evergrande had evaporated by half, and the market value of Evergrande Automobile had evaporated by more than HK$400 billion. Almost at the same time, Baoneng was successively adjusted from the outlook to negative by rating agencies, and the financing cost increased cash flow under great pressure, resulting in problems such as centralized maturity of debt, redemption of wealth management products, payment by suppliers, and payment of employee wages
Real estate developers build cars, in 2021, there will be a continuous negative news, wave after wave, testing the patience of investors.
On December 15, Agile Group announced that more than US$200 million of its investment in WM Group had been completed, and after the completion of the transaction, Agile owned a 4.58% interest in WM Motors. Unlike Evergrande and Baoneng, which are directly involved in the "production and research and development of complete vehicles", Agile entered the market as a strategic investor and did not directly participate in the production and sales of WM. On December 27, Evergrande's new car announced that it was off the production line, and Jianghujun expected them to usher in a new turnaround.
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