Wen | Kaifeng
Steady growth is inseparable from the manufacturing industry.
01
Automobiles have become one of the industries most directly impacted by the epidemic.
Since March, tesla gigafactory in Lingang, Shanghai, has been affected by the epidemic control and has repeatedly stopped production.
On April 9, WEILAI released the news that since March, due to the epidemic, the company's supply chain partners in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places have stopped production one after another, and have not yet recovered.
Subsequently, WEILAI said that the Hefei plant gradually resumed production, but the follow-up production plan depended on the recovery of the supply chain.
On April 14, Great Wall Motor's brands announced that eight suppliers involved in the Tank 300 model had stopped working and operating due to the epidemic.
On the same day, He Xiaopeng, CEO of Xiaopeng Motors, said in the circle of friends that if the supply chain enterprises in Shanghai and the surrounding areas cannot find a way to dynamically resume work and production, all OEMs may have to stop work and production in May.
Yu Chengdong, CEO of Huawei's consumer business, also said in the circle of friends that if the resumption of work and production cannot be resumed as soon as possible, the technology and industrial industries will be affected.
In fact, this is not the first time that the auto industry has faced the dilemma of stopping production.
As early as early March, faw's five major vehicle plants in Changchun, Jilin Province, had all ceased production.
The good news is that on April 14, all cities and prefectures in Jilin Province announced that they have achieved the goal of zeroing out the social aspects of epidemic prevention and control, and major vehicle factories are expected to gradually resume production.
Affected by the impact of the automobile industry chain, the national automobile production and sales have declined significantly, and some large car companies have fallen off a cliff.
According to the latest data provided by the Association, automobile production and sales reached 2.241 million units in March and 2.234 million units, respectively, down 9.1% and 11.7% year-on-year.
At the same time, FAW-Volkswagen sales fell by 40.2% in the first quarter, SAIC Volkswagen sales fell by 34.5%, SAIC-GM fell by 40.5%, and Dongfeng Nissan fell by 33.5%.
It can be seen that under the impact of the epidemic, no one can stay out of the matter.
02
Why has this wave of the epidemic had such a big impact on the automotive industry?
As we all know, the automobile industry involves tens of thousands of parts, the supply chain is long, and one car company corresponds to more than 200 parts suppliers.
This means that even if the vehicle production base is not plagued by the epidemic, once many parts suppliers stop production due to the epidemic or are hindered by logistics, the production of the whole vehicle is bound to be affected.
To make matters worse, unlike previous rounds of the epidemic, the two regions most affected by the epidemic this time, Shanghai and Jilin, are the two largest automobile production bases in the mainland, and the other is in Guangdong.
According to the data, in 2021, the automobile production of Guangdong, Shanghai and Jilin will reach 3.3846 million, 2.8332 million and 2.4241 million vehicles respectively, accounting for about 1/3 of the country in total.
Compared with Shanghai and Jilin, although Guangdong has also suffered from the impact of the epidemic many times, the impact of the automotive industry chain is relatively small due to the relatively controlled epidemic.
However, it should be pointed out that although there are many automobile production bases in the country, each base has gathered a large number of upstream and downstream enterprises, but not every production base can completely "internal circulation", which is inseparable from the supply of parts and components from other production bases.
More critically, Shanghai's impact is not only one city and one place, but also the auto parts production base formed around Shanghai in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, which has also been affected by the epidemic, and there are thousands of enterprises.
To make matters worse, the smooth flow of goods in some places is also blocked.
Based on the needs of epidemic prevention and control, many places have shut down high-speed toll stations and set strict thresholds for logistics vehicles, which has brought a new wave of shocks.
Some parts manufacturers that could have resumed production through closed loops have had little effect on restoring the entire automotive production chain because the products could not be shipped.
The data shows that from March 1 to April 9, the Shanghai vehicle freight flow index fell by 19.27% year-on-year; the national vehicle freight traffic index fell by 6.51% year-on-year.
Therefore, as Xiaopeng said, if the resumption of work and production cannot be dynamically resumed as soon as possible, there will be more car companies across the country facing the worry of stopping production.
03
Why stabilize the automotive industry chain?
Automobile is the largest industry in the mainland after real estate.
On the one hand, the automobile industry plays an important role, and the pull effect on upstream and downstream industries is extremely prominent.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the automobile industry accounts for about 10% of the mainland's GDP, and the driving force for upstream and downstream industries is strong, and every 1 yuan of value-added in the automobile manufacturing industry can drive the value-added of upstream and downstream related industries by 2.64 yuan.
In 2021, the total production and sales of mainland automobiles will exceed 26 million units, ranking first in the world for 13 consecutive years.
On the other hand, automobiles are still the main bulk consumer goods, and stabilizing automobile consumption is also critical to stabilizing the basic consumption plate.
Data show that in 2021, the national auto retail sales reached 4.37 trillion yuan, accounting for 10% of the total retail sales of consumer goods.
Therefore, the stability of the automobile industry has a direct and far-reaching impact on both the manufacturing side and the consumer side.
04
For the urban economy, the automobile industry is also an important pillar industry for many economically strong cities.
In 2021, there are 7 cities with an annual production volume of more than 1 million vehicles in mainland China:
Guangzhou, Shanghai, Changchun, Liuzhou, Chongqing, Beijing, Wuhan.
In these cities, except for Beijing, automobiles are pillar industries and have a considerable proportion in industry and even the overall economy. (See 9 Cities Race!) Who will finally win Tesla's second factory? 》）
Among them, the highest proportion is Changchun, the automobile industry accounts for 70% of the total industrial output value, followed by Liuzhou, which also accounts for half of the country.
Therefore, the prosperity and decline of the automobile industry will have a direct impact on the economic growth of these cities.
05
So, what is the basis for stabilizing the automotive industry chain?
Reopening the capillaries of logistics is undoubtedly the first step.
In response to the practice of "one letter in one place", the Ministry of Communications has carried out corrective work.
As of April 13, the number of closed toll booths nationwide had decreased from 678 to 469, and the number of closed service areas had decreased from 364 to 201.
At the same time, the Ministry of Communications issued a national unified model key material transport vehicle permit, requiring all localities to ensure smooth passage.
However, how to balance both and how to achieve a one-size-fits-all approach with stable logistics and supply chains in local governments is obviously a test.
Equally important as logistics is still to ensure the resumption of work and production in the manufacturing industry.
Under the impact of the epidemic, the short-term shutdown of some living service industries may have little impact, but the manufacturing industry is related to the industrial chain, related to employment, related to foreign trade, and more related to the basic economic plate.
In recent years, the global epidemic pandemic, coupled with geopolitical conflicts, frequent trade conflicts, and soaring commodity prices, the global manufacturing supply chain itself has been seriously affected, and "lack of core and less electricity" has always restricted the development of the automobile industry.
After all, as the largest city and the largest industrial city in the country, Shanghai has automobiles, chips, biomedicine and artificial intelligence as its pillar industries, and has gathered a number of core science and technology enterprises.
The normal production and operation of these enterprises is related to the stability of many industrial chains in the country.
Therefore, scientific prevention and control to minimize the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development is of great importance.