Industrial new energy and industrial intelligence are the two important main lines of industrial base reconstruction in the mainland, of which industrial new energy is a fast variable and industrial intelligence is a slow variable. The new round of technology-economy paradigm migration takes the digitization, networking and intelligence of the manufacturing industry as the main line, and accelerates the integration and development of the industrial Internet and the manufacturing industry. Overall, intelligence is becoming a new driving force for industrial transformation and upgrading, leading the quality, efficiency and power of the manufacturing industry. We believe that industrial intelligence is a complex system engineering, the prerequisite is industrial digitalization, industrial intelligence will last a long time to complete and continuously optimize and upgrade, there are more structured strategic investment opportunities in the medium and long term, but also contain a large market expectation difference. We expect manufacturing investment to be the first engine of economic growth in 2022, with annual growth rates reaching 11.1%.
Industrial intelligence is the process of realizing artificial intelligence to gradually replace people on the basis of industrial digitalization
We believe that industrial intelligence refers to the use of digital technology to connect scattered or isolated equipment, products, producers, enterprises, etc. with industrial chains and value chains to form a linkage development. Industrial digitalization is the foundation of industrial intelligence, and full digitalization is the premise of intelligent realization. Industrial digitalization is the initial mining of data value and lays a solid foundation for intelligent development. With a certain degree of digital accumulation, the process of industrial intelligence will begin to emerge on a large scale. The explosive growth of data and the accumulation of massive amounts of data contain great value.
According to the definition of the National Bureau of Statistics, industrial digitalization refers to the application of digital technology and data resources to bring output and efficiency improvement to traditional industries, which is the integration of digital technology and the real economy. We believe that industrial digitalization is the deep integration of traditional industries and the core industries of the digital economy. The core industries of the digital economy mainly include computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing, telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services, Internet and related services, software and information technology services, etc., which are the foundation of the development of the digital economy.
Industrial intelligence is a process of gradually replacing people by artificial intelligence on its basis, not only in physical labor, but more importantly in mental labor. Industrial intelligence is the future development trend, and it is not uncommon for government documents to intelligently transform and develop the industry, but the official has not yet given a clear definition like industrial digitalization. From the perspective of intelligent technical characteristics, it is the deep integration of data, algorithms and knowledge; from the perspective of the government's support for the application scenarios of the development of intelligent economy based on digital technology, there are new growth points such as smart sales, unmanned distribution, intelligent manufacturing, and reverse customization, as well as intelligent public facilities such as intelligent buildings, intelligent parking lots, intelligent charging piles, and smart garbage bins. We believe that since artificial intelligence and its related industries are not as mature as the core industries of the digital economy, the intelligent empowerment of traditional industries is difficult to achieve on a large scale like digitalization in the short term.
Industrial intelligence is essentially a migration of the paradigm of industrial development
We believe that industrial intelligence is the fourth technological-economic paradigm migration facing the economy and society. Industrial intelligence and new energy transformation will form a change in the technological-economic paradigm. The so-called "migration of the techno-economic paradigm" refers to the emergence of large-scale innovation in interrelated industrial clusters after the key breakthroughs in general technologies, and fully penetrates in various manufacturing industries, and its impact can be extended to the multi-dimensional and deeper macro economy. The techno-economic paradigm includes a series of interdependent technologies, industrial organizations, business models, and management innovations that influence, cycle, and evolve continuously.
We focus on the intelligentization of the industry, not only to pay attention to the intelligence of manufacturing and production links, but also to pay attention to the intelligence of the whole chain of research and development, sales, service and so on. In particular, we recommend paying attention to the tracks with the most margin of safety and high technical barriers in the future, namely smart cars, smart homes, smart home appliances, smart buildings, smart medical care, smart pensions, smart education, etc.
The intelligent transformation of the mainland industry has the prerequisites to gradually promote the formation of a new paradigm of high-quality development
The revolution of industrial intelligence has begun to emerge. With the development of a new generation of information technology such as the Internet of Things, big data, cloud computing and artificial intelligence, the mainland will be supported by a huge market scale, as well as a diversified industrial network node, and the production facilities will be networked in the society, and eventually an industrial form connected by industrial Internet technology and radiating the world will be formed.
First, our industrial system is complete and complete, which means that the technological innovation of industrial intelligence can form a connection with China's manufacturing capacity. Second, the scale of the mainland's super market has formed the world's largest e-commerce network, and the data migration of the consumer side has basically been completed. Platform enterprises have accumulated huge consumer behavior data, so that new intelligent technologies are migrated from the consumer end to the industrial end, and the completion of the reform, reorganization and transformation of the supply side will help promote the completion of the change of industrial paradigm. Third, the mainland's application research and development capabilities continue to improve. The mainland has become the country with the largest number of R&D engineers in the world, and the output of patents and scientific and technological papers has always been among the best in the world, which has greatly promoted China's industrial intelligent upgrading. In 2021, the intensity of research and development in the mainland will reach 2.44%, which is close to the pre-epidemic average of OECD countries. According to the Global Innovation Index (GII) released by the World Intellectual Property Organization in 2021, the mainland's scientific and technological innovation capacity ranked 12th among 132 economies, up 2 places from the previous year, ranking first among middle-income economies; since 2013, the mainland ranking has maintained a sustained and stable upward momentum, rising by 23 places in 9 years.
Industrial intelligence drives the demand for larger-scale fixed asset investment
The intelligent transformation of the industry has driven the mainland manufacturing industry to maintain a high degree of prosperity under the background of digital transformation, intelligent upgrading and the implementation of the national "East Numbers and West Calculation" project, and the production and investment have maintained rapid growth, continuing to lead the national industry. Overall, the high-tech manufacturing industry has established a central role in the process of industrial intelligence. From January to February 2022, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 14.4% year-on-year, 6.9 percentage points faster than all industries above designated size. Among them, the growth of smart products is good, and the output of new energy vehicles, industrial robots and solar cells increased by 150.5%, 29.6% and 26.4% respectively year-on-year.
In recent years, around the promotion of high-quality development of the manufacturing industry, many large projects such as new energy vehicles and integrated circuits have been started. At the same time, with the steady recovery of the manufacturing industry, the market demand for equipment and high-tech industries has expanded, supporting the acceleration of manufacturing investment. From January to February 2022, manufacturing investment increased by 20.9% year-on-year, 7.4 percentage points faster than in 2021. Among them, investment in high-tech manufacturing increased by 42.7% year-on-year, 20.5 percentage points faster than in 2021. Among them, the investment in the electronic and communication equipment manufacturing industry increased by 50.3%, the investment in the medical equipment and instrumentation manufacturing industry increased by 41.2%, and the investment in the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry increased by 27.2%.
Taking the intelligence of the automotive industry as an example, we will continue to improve the basic support capacity building, and objectively stimulate fixed asset investment in this process. The first is to carry out the full electrification of vehicles in the public domain. Increase the proportion of vehicle electrification in urban buses, taxis, sanitation, urban logistics and distribution, and other fields. The second is to accelerate the construction of new energy vehicle charging/substation power stations. Improve the coverage of fast charging/substations in highway service areas and public parking spaces. The third is to implement road testing and demonstration applications of intelligent and connected vehicles. The focus is to increase the construction of collaborative infrastructure in the Internet of Vehicles and accelerate the application of specific scenarios of intelligent vehicles. The fourth is to build a big data center for autonomous driving operation. In order to support the application of intelligent vehicles and improve the entry point of behavior, we will build a fusion perception system for urban roads, buildings and public facilities, and create a platform based on urban information model (CIM) and the integration of urban dynamic and static data.
The development of industrial intelligence mainly focuses on the digital economy innovation cluster, with deepening the integration and development of a new generation of information technology and manufacturing industry as the main line, taking intelligent manufacturing as the main direction of attack, and focusing on the innovative application of the industrial Internet, and continuously enhancing the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry. We emphasize that although industrial intelligence is a slow variable with high barriers, under its catalytic and spillover effects, manufacturing investment in 2022 is most likely to be much better than market expectations, and the annual growth rate is expected to reach about 11.1%. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, manufacturing investment is no longer a pro-cyclical variable, but has become the core support for economic growth under the role of industrial intelligence.
"New energy +" has spawned intelligent demand for incremental industries
In November 2021, we forward-looking put forward the concept of "new energy +", proposing that "the current round of energy revolution represented by new energy has entered the stage of industrial new energy from new energy industrialization", and industrial new energy, also known as "new energy +", refers to the deep integration of new energy and various economic and social fields, promotes the reform of energy production and consumption, promotes the wide application of low-carbon technology, drives the new energy of the whole industry chain, achieves the goal of carbon peak carbon neutrality, and forms a new form of economic and social development based on new energy consumption.
We have proposed in the previous annual strategy report that the greater expected difference of "new energy +" is that the changes brought about by carbon neutrality are not only in the new energy industry chain, but will trigger the upgrading and reengineering of the entire manufacturing industry to match the energy revolution. Mainland energy transformation process not only brings about industrial changes in the new energy industry chain, but also leads to the comprehensive reconstruction of the manufacturing industry and even the industrial system, and even runs through the whole process and all aspects of economic and social development, in the medium and long term, "new energy +" will eventually go deep into the various fields of economy and society, and at present, in the electronics, chemical, machinery, construction, computer and other industries have been reflected, and the "new energy +" of traditional industries is ready to go.
"New energy +" is poised to generate incremental intelligent demand. Under the long-term goal of double carbon, the trend of industrial new energy has been established, which brings about the reengineering and reconstruction of the overall industrial system based on changes in energy structure, which will bring important incremental demand for industrial digitalization, which may be reflected in the following aspects.
First, the rapid growth of new energy terminal consumer demand has brought about digital and intelligent demand, which has a significant performance in the fields of electronics and automobiles. For example, in the process of replacing traditional cars with new energy vehicles, the core technology of electric vehicles is "three electricity" (battery, motor, electronic control), the production and use of the internal structure of "three electricity" and related parts will produce a large number of digital needs, while the trend of automobile electrification brings positive benefits to the intelligent development of automobiles.
Second, the new energy power generation system has spawned intelligent demand. The trend of cleaning power production has been established, from coal thermal power to new energy power generation transformation, increasing the proportion of non-fossil energy, photovoltaic and wind power are important development directions。 Due to the existence of certain differences between traditional thermal power and new energy power generation, the former can be actively managed and regulated, the latter such as photovoltaic, wind power, hydropower, etc. are susceptible to seasonal, weather, light and other factors, and are not stable, diversified new energy power generation methods also have huge challenges in grid management, must be combined with a comprehensive information management platform and data system, the power grid data for collection, collation and analysis, such as through real-time monitoring of voltage fluctuations in the power system, voltage deviations, Harmonic changes and other power indicators trend to ensure the quality of power supply and the stability of power generation, so we believe that under the trend of clean power generation, new energy power generation systems will generate incremental digital and intelligent demand.
Taking the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as an example, the Xilin Gol League has made every effort to carry out the action of "using data to empower wisdom on the cloud" and continue to promote industrial intelligence. In order to accelerate the construction of an industrial system with diversified development and multi-polar support, the action of "Using Digital Intelligence on the Cloud" takes digital and intelligent wind farm dispatching as the breakthrough point, and in 2022, it will focus on the implementation of the headquarters projects of Jingneng, CITIC Pacific New Energy Remote Intelligent Operation and Maintenance Center and Green Power Control Center, actively introduce projects such as CECEP Wind Turbine Cloud Operation and Maintenance, Deep Energy North Smart Energy Service Base, etc., focus on cultivating the new energy digital service industry chain, and grasp the "5G + intelligent" application in key areas such as coal mines, electric power, and chemicals. Promote the construction of 40 intelligent transformation projects such as Jiangsu Energy Smart Power Plant, cooperate with leading enterprises such as Huawei and Tsinghua Unigroup, build more than 20 intelligent mining enterprises, and empower the intelligent upgrading of traditional industries through new infrastructure.
The chain length system special class emphasizes the key technical research of industrial intelligence
The chain length system work class continues to improve and upgrade the intelligent manufacturing industry chain and promote intelligent transformation. Taking the high-end, intelligent and green industry as the direction, adhere to the strong leader, supplement the chain, and cluster, and further promote the informatization, digital transformation and intelligent upgrading of the manufacturing industry. The government also needs to play an active role in promoting the construction of new infrastructure such as information networks, the research and development of common technologies in the industry, the digital transformation of physical enterprises, the construction of industry informatization standards, data openness and data protection.
At present, most of the manufacturing enterprises in the mainland are still in the stage of mechanization and electrification, and the reserves and capabilities of information technology are insufficient, especially the lack of independent and controllable key core technologies, and still face the problem that more key equipment and core components are subject to people.
To this end, it is necessary to strengthen the research and development of core intelligent technologies, and vigorously develop intelligent manufacturing software, hardware systems and corresponding integrated products. In terms of key technologies for the intelligent manufacturing industry, we should pay special attention to the research and development of intelligent robot technology, accelerate the research and development of a number of new intelligent equipment products with independent intellectual property rights, and continuously improve the degree of intelligent production and automation. It is necessary to combine the research and development of intelligent technology, formulate technical standards for the intelligent industry, and improve the control over the development of the industry.
Taking the robot industry chain in Xiangtan City as an example, Xiangtan City has successively issued the "Five-year Action Plan for Xiangtan Manufacturing Strong City" and the "Three-year Action Plan for Intelligent Transformation", with the overall goal of relying on the construction of Siasun Robot Industrial Park to gradually build a whole industrial chain of robot research and development, production, sales and service. Robot is a set of mechanical, electronic, control, sensing, artificial intelligence and other multidisciplinary advanced technology in one of the automation equipment, the added value is extremely high, widely used, is an important support means for future intelligent manufacturing. Xiangtan City takes the industrial park as the main body to actively introduce and cultivate and incubate robot industry enterprises, initially build a new pine as the leader, with Qianzhi, Aopai, Chaoyu and other host or system integration enterprises as the backbone, while striving to introduce a higher level of robot system integration enterprises, and guide the city's enterprises to carry out parts and components supporting research and development.
The industrial Internet is the main carrier of industrial intelligence
We believe that the industrial Internet is a new technological paradigm and economic activity formed by the deep integration and application of traditional network technology and a new generation of information technology in the industrial sector. The industrial Internet establishes a wide range of connections covering all departments and links of enterprise production and operation through information technology such as the Internet, mobile Internet, and the Internet of Things, and uses new information technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence to improve the accuracy and agility of enterprise business activities.
The emergence of the industrial Internet has enhanced the empowerment efficiency of information technology for the manufacturing industry. From the perspective of supporting technology, the technical foundation of the industrial Internet not only includes network connection technologies such as the Internet, mobile Internet, and Internet of Things, but also includes data storage and processing technologies such as big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and industrial application technologies such as virtual reality and 3D printing. From the perspective of connection objects, the industrial Internet aims at the Interconnection of All Things, and emphasizes the connection between production equipment, products, services, and application scenarios and users. From the perspective of data utilization, the industrial Internet not only requires the whole process and the whole life cycle of data collection, flow, and feedback, but also strives to achieve real-time analysis, independent decision-making, learning and improvement based on real-time online data, and realize the automation and intelligence of core business.
The focus of the industrial Internet is on the industry itself, and it plays a role in optimizing the internal processes of enterprises, improving resource allocation, improving operational efficiency, and innovating business models, etc., to improve the operational efficiency and economic benefits of the real economy. The main body of various applications provided by the industrial Internet is enterprises, and the new generation of information technology is applied to the whole value chain process of production activities such as R&D design to manufacturing, marketing and sales, after-sales service, etc., from the R&D department to the finance, production, marketing and other departments, from the enterprise itself to the whole business ecology of the upstream suppliers, downstream distributors and users of the enterprise. At present, many manufacturing industries have begun to adopt artificial intelligence image recognition technology in the quality inspection process, which significantly improves the speed and efficiency of detection; through artificial intelligence technology, the production parameters of agriculture and manufacturing are optimized, which can significantly improve the output and quality.
At the beginning of 2022, Suzhou City, Jiangsu Province, released the "2022 Action Plan for Intelligent Transformation and Digital Transformation of Suzhou Manufacturing Industry". The Suzhou Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology took the lead in promoting the introduction of the "Action Plan", the main goal is to complete more than 5,000 "intelligent reform and digital transfer" projects, covering 3,500 enterprises on the regulations, continue to expand the digital popularization of small and medium-sized enterprises, and strive to create a national intelligent manufacturing pilot zone. Among them, it is clearly pointed out that "we will make greater efforts to promote the construction of the "intelligent reform and digital rotation" platform, continue to build and enrich the comprehensive, characteristic, and professional industrial Internet platform and industrial e-commerce platform, export industrial Internet solutions by industry, and continue to build the "Industrial Internet to see Suzhou" brand. ”
We believe that the industrial Internet will empower industrial intelligence. Industrial intelligence is not a simple "machine substitution", but through "human-machine collaboration", with high efficiency improvement to achieve product supply to the high-end and the industry to the middle and high-end. On the one hand, expanding the application of "5G + Industrial Internet" can improve the networking rate of CNC and other CNC equipment, promote new models such as central factories, collaborative manufacturing, flexible production, crowdsourcing and crowdsourcing, collection and marketing, and improve the level of regional manufacturing resources, innovation resource sharing and collaboration. On the other hand, breaking through the core technology of the industrial Internet can solve a number of "card neck" problems, make up for the shortcomings of high-end industry, concentrate on equipment technology breakthroughs and industrial software research, improve the localization rate of intelligent equipment and industrial software, promote digital and industrial integration and innovation, and empower electronic information, equipment manufacturing, biomedicine, advanced materials and other industries in an all-round and full-chain manner.
Risk Warning
The anti-monopoly of the platform economy exceeded expectations; the capital set traffic lights beyond expectations
(Li Chao is the chief economist of Zheshang Securities)