Burdened with nearly two trillion yuan of huge debts, coupled with frequent rumors of "disappearance" from the outside world, Xu Jiayin's exit from Evergrande seems to be a foregone conclusion. Whether it can turn the tide and play the last hole card, the time left for Xu Jiayin is only three months.
1. Evergrande sinks deeper and deeper?
In September last year, Evergrande finally thundered, and the amount of debt of 1.97 trillion yuan shocked everyone, equivalent to 1.4 billion Chinese and each person was indebted to 1400 yuan. More than 7 months have passed, and Evergrande is getting deeper and deeper in the debt quagmire. From the explosion of Evergrande Property's 13.4 billion deposits being enforced by banks, to china Evergrande, Evergrande Property and Evergrande Automobile, three Evergrande listed companies, which have announced the postponement of the disclosure of annual reports, and then Xu Jiayin's absence from the Evergrande Investment Conference, the panic of the outside world about the Evergrande crisis has spread and intensified again.
2. Time left for Xu Jiayin?
Xu Jiayin, who was in the center of the storm, was rumored to be "missing", and some people even said that he had been controlled by the relevant departments. Suddenly, all kinds of gossip flew all over the place. On March 22, Xu Jiayin, who had not appeared for a long time, finally appeared. At the meeting of Evergrande Automobile on the same day, Xu Jiayin appeared and made a mobilization speech on the mass production of Hengchi 5, and the rumors about Xu Jiayin's "disappearance" were self-defeating. In fact, compared with the huge debt-ridden real estate business sector, Evergrande Automobile is the last bottom card that Xu Jiayin has prepared for his comeback.
Evergrande Automobile has a bad fate, not only experienced a confrontation with Jia Yueting and broke up unhappily, but hengchi 5 was once removed from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which could not help but make people lose confidence and expectations for Evergrande Automobile. Fortunately, Xu Jiayin withstood huge pressure, and at the end of last year, Hengchi 5 was officially taken off the line, and the capital market was jubilant. Moreover, this car has obtained the "customs clearance approval" of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and has been qualified for sales. Now Xu Jiayin shouted "three months of big work" and strived to achieve mass production of Hengchi 5 at the end of June. Some people say that Xu Jiayin is going to sell the car to pay off the debt.
3. Only three months left?
In fact, there was really not much time left for Xu Jiayin, only three months remained. On the one hand, if Hengchi 5 can achieve mass production in June and deliver it to investors, this will be a big positive for Xu Jiayin and Evergrande. After all, Musk and Li Bin, when they were on the verge of bankruptcy, relied on Tesla and Weilai to soar. The success of Evergrande Automobile will enhance the confidence of the outside world in Evergrande and can greatly increase Xu Jiayin's voice in Evergrande's accounting restructuring and refinancing. But the premise of all this is that Hengchi 5 is really a big seller, gets very considerable sales, and achieves a certain amount of delivery.
On the other hand, in the global investor conference call, Evergrande said that it would strive to propose a debt restructuring plan at the end of July. Evergrande's debt is huge, involving a very wide range, affecting too many interests, if it is easy to go bankrupt, there will be many adverse chain reactions. Therefore, debt restructuring may be the best solution. In fact, since January this year, a number of central enterprises have successively taken over Evergrande's projects. Evergrande withdrew, and the central enterprises "went to the bottom", which is to gather multiple forces to protect people's livelihood and minimize the negative impact of Evergrande thunderstorm incident.
The automobile business is expected to succeed, Evergrande's debt restructuring plan is about to be released, will Xu Jiayin take advantage of this salted fish to turn around? The likelihood of this is almost zero. The future of new energy vehicles is long, Evergrande Automobile is currently only the first step in the long march, and the future is still not optimistic. Even if it is successful, it will be difficult to fill the black hole of Evergrande's debt. Central enterprises are only taking over some projects, and it is impossible to cover up the amount of debt. Some people believe that When Evergrande reorganizes, Xu Jiayin will definitely be kicked out and lose control, because his personal credit has long been overdrawn, and he is also responsible for Evergrande to this step.