Hello everyone, I'm Sister Yi.
Recently, Ideal Auto released its third quarter earnings report. According to the financial report, Ideal's revenue of 200 million yuan in the third quarter came from the sale of 70,000 new energy credits, accounting for 51% of the [other sales and service revenue]. The filling of this 200 million yuan has also narrowed the rate of loss of the ideal rapidly, becoming the smallest loss among the three new forces of car manufacturing (Weilai, Ideal, and Xiaopeng).
The biggest winner who makes a lot of money from new energy credits is Tesla.
In 2012, Tesla earned $40 million from the sale of carbon credits, which accounted for 10% of the company's total revenue that year; in 2020, Tesla's net profit reached $721 million, of which Tesla earned $1.6 billion by selling carbon credits ( i.e. points ) . This means that a large part of Tesla's profitability lies in the sale of points.
So today's question is: what are the points of car companies? Why are points so valuable?
"New energy credits" is a set of reward and punishment methods formulated in order to achieve carbon neutrality and carbon peaking, so that automobile production and automobile consumption are more environmentally friendly.
At present, China implements a "double points policy". The so-called "double integration", that is, the average fuel consumption point + new energy vehicle integration, the points are positive and negative.
"Fuel consumption points", mainly for fuel vehicles, the lower the fuel consumption of the car, the more energy-saving, the corresponding score is higher, and vice versa, the lower; "new energy vehicle credits" is related to the mileage of the car, 100 km power consumption, the longer the product mileage, the lower the 100 km power consumption, the more reward scores.
If car companies do not pay enough attention to new energy products and focus on fuel vehicles, and fuel vehicles are not energy-saving, then it is very likely that "negative points" will occur. When the negative points reach a certain standard, manufacturers will have to stop the production of related fuel models.
It can be said that the double integral "controls the lifeblood of the car company".
Not long ago, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the situation of "average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle credits of Chinese passenger car enterprises in 2020".
In 2020, 137 passenger car enterprises in China produced/imported a total of 19.8302 million passenger cars, with a positive fuel consumption of 4.3674 million points, a negative fuel consumption score of 11.7143 million points, a positive integral of 4.37 million points for new energy vehicles, and a negative integral of 1.0655 million points for new energy vehicles.
Judging from the data, at present, the supply of double integrals of China's car companies is undersupplied, and the gap is very serious. In particular, the fuel consumption credit, there are 7.3469 million negative points.
The car companies with negative new energy points are basically domestic best-selling brands and car companies, and the top three are FAW-Volkswagen (-139,200 points), SAIC Volkswagen (-92,900 yuan), and Dongfeng Motor (-84,300 points).
So how do car companies fill in this "hole"? Can you just wait for the closure?
At present, the points are not enough, there are two ways to remedy: one is self-sufficiency, such as the production of enough new energy vehicles, to obtain enough points; the other is to obtain points from other enterprises to compensate for their own points deficit.
There are two ways to earn points from other companies, one is to get points from affiliates and the other is to buy points from other companies.
Only in this way can car companies make their points meet the standards and continue to produce pure fuel vehicles.
However, not every manufacturer can find a partner with "excellent points", so everyone tends to choose the way of "buying points".
This also makes new energy credits a fragrant "business".
According to ideal car's "200 million yuan of revenue from the sale of 70,000 new energy credits", the price of each point is as high as 2857 yuan.
In 2018, the transaction amount of new energy vehicle double credit exceeded 700 million yuan, each cent was 850 yuan; in just two years, the price of new energy credits has more than tripled.
If it is calculated at 1 point = 3,000 yuan, and does not consider the situation of "transferring points" from related car companies, FAW-Volkswagen will spend 410 million yuan to clear the negative division of new energy; SAIC Volkswagen will need 278 million yuan to fill the point deficit.
Li Jinyong, executive president of the Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce and president of the New Energy Vehicle Branch of the Automobile Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, once said: "In 2020 and 2021, new energy credits are seriously in short supply, and a new energy point is worth 3,000 yuan at the end of 2020, and will exceed 5,000 yuan / point at the end of 2021, and the price of points in 2022 is higher, and it is expected to be 6,000-10,000 yuan / cent." ”
It can be seen that the price of new energy vehicle credits will double in the next one or two years.
"Relying on the sale of new energy points to make a lot of money" situation, will soon occur in China, like Tesla, BYD, Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideal and other new energy vehicle companies, will be sold through the sale of new energy positive points a large number of "realization", used to offset the cost of production of new energy vehicles, to achieve profit increases or reduce losses. The ideal has taken the first step.
But for traditional fuel vehicle companies, double points are undoubtedly a fatal blow. Because this means that in the future period of time, the more fuel vehicles sold by car companies, the more losses will be made. This is especially true for joint venture brands and car companies that are not smooth in the transformation of new energy vehicles. Although they can obtain some positive points for new energy by producing new energy vehicles, these points are only a drop in the bucket compared to the negative points generated by fuel vehicles. Therefore, only by continuously purchasing positive integrals of new energy can we maintain the production and sales of fuel vehicles.
The trend of doubling the price of new energy credits has made it more difficult for the "fuel vehicle" big households to live.
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