Lead
Introduction
This time, standing under the spotlight in the center of the stage, it is no longer the Volkswagen and Toyotas in the established impression...
Author 丨 Cui Liwen
Responsible editor 丨 Cao Jiadong
Editor 丨Zhu Jinbin
If it were not for the increasingly raging epidemic, all the "auto people" should gather in Beijing at this moment to participate in the biennial feast, and this article would also be online on time to meet with everyone after the busy auto show media.
In the end, the plan was disrupted.
For a time, the emotions of helplessness, regret, unwillingness, and pathos surged into my heart again. After all, 2022 should have been a year of greater transformation and bloom for China's auto industry, but what was not expected to usher in was many irreversible force majeure.
And I, in the quiet of Shanghai, have been out of the house for more than 20 days. As a small editor, I am accustomed to the rhythm of high-frequency business trips, rushing between various press conferences, staying up late to catch up with the manuscript, and I always feel a little uncomfortable in the face of sudden stagnation.
But changing the angle and looking at the positive side also has a hard-won opportunity to calm down and think well, summarize the past and look to the future.
This brings attention back to the automotive industry, and clearly remembers that a full year ago, after the shanghai auto show, in the face of the wave of electrification, he once made such a statement in the circle of friends.
"Located in this new track, compared with the traditional fuel vehicle sector to catch up, this time, China's own brands will have pricing power in their own hands."
After 365 days, even if the Beijing Auto Show cannot be held as scheduled, the same feeling has become more and more intense, especially with more arguments as a support.
The current Chinese new energy market is far more turbulent and exciting than imagined. Standing in the spotlight in the center of the stage, there are no longer the Volkswagens and Toyotas in the established impression...
Look behind a sales table
At the beginning of this paragraph, I first want to explain that the epidemic, lack of cores, and the soaring price of raw materials for power batteries have indeed hindered the upward speed of the entire new energy market, but the degree is very limited.
In the past Three months, according to the report card released by the Association, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 445,000 units, an increase of 137.6% year-on-year and 63.1% month-on-month. From January to March, domestic retail sales of new energy passenger cars were 1.070 million units, up 146.6% year-on-year.
At the same time, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 28.2% in March, an increase of 17.6% compared with the penetration rate of 10.6% in March 2021. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in independent brands has reached a more gratifying 46%, which is getting closer to the 50% mark.
Obviously, data doesn't lie. In the end, as long as there is not too much deviation, as once predicted, the above two data will break through the "5.5 million vehicles, 30%" mark at the end of 2022, and the possibility will continue to accumulate.
It is precisely because of this that with huge changes and dividends as the basis, there are more and more car companies that want to share this "cake" and want to share in it.
It is very gratifying that after looking at the sales rankings of new energy manufacturers in March and January to March, on the one hand, BYD has won the monthly and quarterly sales championships with monthly sales of 103,229 vehicles and 282,686 vehicles respectively, respectively; on the other hand, north and south Volkswagen, as the only remaining "single seedling" of the joint venture brand, is helpless at the end of the list.
If in the past year, all kinds of new electric products launched by independent brands have sprung up, and for the first time, we have gradually felt the hope of "overtaking in curves", then this year, with the gradual recognition of some of them by end users, it has reached the season of ripening.
Seeing this, some people may have doubts: the so-called electric track, Chinese car companies for the joint venture brand all-round crushing, more or through the cost-effective strategy, crazy stacking configuration to achieve. Being in the low-end range may work, and once you enter the mid-to-high-end market, you will immediately reveal your original form.
On this question, the answer is simpler, the following sales list with a price range of 100,000 yuan can already be used as the best rebuttal.
Below 100,000 yuan, the A00-level pure electric wave set off by Wuling Hongguang MINIEV is still spreading, which in turn has spawned models with the same trend like QQ ice cream and Benben EV. At the same time, we can also see products like Nezha V and Zero Run T03 that try to take the boutique car route and increase the premium by adding more intelligent configurations.
In contrast, in the price range of 100,000-200,000 yuan, where end consumers are the most picky, the most cumbersome and must face the fierce attack of joint venture traditional fuel vehicles, such as BYD Qin PLUS EV, BYD Dolphin, Euler Good Cat and other explosive models. The fundamental reason that can stand out, "oil and electricity at the same price, or even lower" occupies a large proportion.
In the range of 200,000-300,000 yuan, Tesla Model 3 still shows strong dominance from multiple dimensions. But even in such a very harsh living environment, it still witnessed the successful breakthrough of BYD Han and Xiaopeng P7.
As for more than 300,000 yuan, this once almost no independent brand involved, long occupied by the BBA vacuum zone, in addition to the top position of Tesla Model Y, since the second place can see weilai ES6, Weilai EC6, Weilai ES8, Weilai ET7, including hongqi E-HS9, Lantu FREE EV figure, and bmw, Mercedes-Benz launched by the electric vehicle formed a closed trend.
From this, I can't help but think of last month, writing a special article "Autonomy, Soldiers In the City| Siege of BBA" thrown out a view: the high-end market this piece of "fat meat", with the similar Weilai-like independent brand attack, coupled with similar to Tesla-like upstart threat, is constantly being cannibalized and divided.
After looking at the subdivided sales list of different price ranges, I would like to say: "The scope of this electrification change has penetrated into all corners." ”
To be sure, the comfortable days of the joint venture brand "lying down to make money" have passed.
You don't understand this electric age at all
According to last year's insurance number, WEILAI sold about 90,000 vehicles, accounting for 40.8% of the high-end brand electric vehicles of more than 300,000 yuan. In the first half of the year, it was 37%, and in the second half of the year, it was 44%, showing an upward trend. Behind us is Tesla. Although Tesla's overall sales are several times that of Weilai, the new cars with more than 300,000 yuan in invoices are 6,000 or 7,000 less than those of Weilai. As for the BBA, BMW is more than 20,000, Mercedes-Benz is more than 6,000, and Audi is more than 2,000. ”
Just after the Spring Festival holiday this year, located in the NIO House of Shanghai MixC, Qin Lihong gave the above data when communicating with the media. In addition, he also revealed for the first time that the first SUV born from the NT2 platform was officially named "ES7".
However, due to the epidemic, the new car launch that should have been held before the Beijing Auto Show was postponed to the bottom of 5. The suspension of Shanghai, Jilin and other places also caused the interruption of Weilai's supply chain, and the Hefei plant was forced to stop production for several days, and the delivery volume in April was affected in the short term.
However, it must be admitted that with the official delivery of ET7, ES7 and ET5 have entered the battlefield in the second half of the year, coupled with the "866" currently on sale, they have ushered in a reform, compared with the dilemma of no license to play in 2021, Weilai has finally ushered in the outbreak of product dimensions.
As Qin Lihong said, the onslaught of the BBA will only become more and more intense, and it is bound to be "divided into four worlds" with them in the future. At this moment, the temporary stagnation of the sales level will eventually continue to rise as the pressure on the manufacturing side slowly eases.
Similarly, for Xiaopeng, for BYD, for more well-prepared independent brands, in the electrified track, may also encounter a variety of twists and turns and challenges, but as long as you hold a "hot selling" card in each price range like G9 and seals, the result will not be too unexpected.
The strong contrast is that as early as the epidemic has not yet raged as at this moment, there was a shop survey in the terminal market because of the "rising price tide" of electric vehicles, and the results of the inquiry were: For several strong car companies that often appear in this article, there is almost no impact, and the abundant order volume and long car pick-up cycle are also the best proof.
In the face of such a scene, it is really regrettable to recall the hot pomp and circumstance that when Tiguan was just launched, the price increase was even difficult to find. The performance of the entire ID. series in China's new energy market is less than expected, which is a typical microcosm of the current situation of other joint venture brands.
But in the face of irreversible trends, and the increasingly attractive prospects of the whole market, even if they run into walls everywhere, they still have to go all out.
As everyone knows, in the recent period, similar to Honda, Toyota, Lexus, including Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, itself also plans to show their latest achievements in electrification through the stage of the Beijing Auto Show, several car companies, still disclose relevant information through various means.
e: NP1, bZ4X, RZ 450e, EQS SUV, urbansphere, i7, although the positioning of several models is different, the price is different, the target customer group is different, but the same is that they all represent the brands behind each other, and as of now they can come up with the strongest technical reserves.
After understanding them one by one, comparing with those recognized "front-runners", I want to say: "Indeed, I can feel the existence of progress, but they still fail to understand the true meaning of this electric era." ”
As we talked about a few days ago, when talking with insiders of a new force: until now, some brands believe that selling an electric car is no different from selling a fuel car, so it is inevitable to be eliminated.
On the contrary, located in a new track, really want to make a difference, in addition to the product itself in the interior and exterior design, electronic and electrical architecture, vehicle safety, comprehensive endurance energy performance, intelligent cockpit and auxiliary driving and other dimensions, there is no obvious shortcomings, but also to build a lot of matching systems.
In other words, "electric vehicles" may only account for 50% of their entire business models, and the remainder is also very important.
For example, whether the matching direct stores, after-sales service system, and supplemental energy network are mature enough, whether the culture and labels conveyed by the brand, whether the IP and story displayed by the founder are moving enough, and even whether the corresponding APP boutique mall and daily user activities are rich enough, all determine the upper limit of an electric vehicle company that wants to make a difference.
Otherwise, WEILAI invested a lot of manpower, material resources and financial resources to do user operations, and completed a total of 900 replacement power stations. Since Tesla entered China, in addition to building factories and selling cars, it has also laid more than 1,000 supercharging stations, what is the significance?
A little regret, the reason seems simple, but to the actual implementation level, perhaps unwilling to get out of the comfort zone and moat that has been built in the fuel era, most of the joint venture brands may not even be the first 50% of the full "understanding" thoroughly, not to mention the layout of the last 50%.
"Once these elephants in the turn start to exert their strength, we will have no place to stay."
It is abundantly clear that just two years ago, similar warnings filled the entire Chinese new energy market. At that time, standing at that node, on the one hand, the giants with past glory and abundant resources as accumulation, eager to try to enter the harvest; on the other hand, the newcomers who were still toddlers, mired in the mire, and the prospects were uncertain, and they were still worried about the problem of survival.
But over time, all indications have shown that the so-called "elephant turn" is more like an alarmist paradox. In the electric age, who is the real "elephant" is far from being conclusive.
Fortunately, unlike the mobile phone industry, thanks to the large enough and diverse sample capacity, the automotive industry will never win-take-all.
Therefore, joint venture brands are not completely without opportunities. The "Wake Up" highlighted in the title is more like a reminder and motivation for them.
As for independent brands, please also guard against arrogance and impetuosity, and continue to run wildly...
| Cui Liwen |
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