2022 is an eventful year for the automotive industry, with a wave of uneven waves and a wave of rises. In 2021, domestic automobile production has achieved a global chip emergency since 2017, car companies are facing an unprecedented production and marketing pressure, nickel and other raw material prices soared, once again aggravated the production costs of car companies, into March, affected by the epidemic some car companies were affected again, a number of car companies announced the temporary suspension of production, Huawei consumer business CEO, smart car BU CEO Yu Chengdong and Xiaopeng Founder He Xiaopeng have spoken out:" If supply chain companies in Shanghai and the surrounding areas are unable to find a way to dynamically resume work and production, all Chinese automakers may have to stop work and production in May. "Although it is impossible for all vehicle manufacturers to stop production, this May must be a difficult May for the automotive industry."
Epidemic in Kyrgyzstan and Shanghai More than 20 car companies have been affected
Changchun and Shanghai are the cities most affected by the epidemic, how important are Shanghai and Jilin Province to the automotive industry in the country? A set of numbers is enough to illustrate the problem. From January to December 2021, the top ten provinces and cities in the country ranked in terms of automobile production in Guangdong Province, Shanghai Municipality, Jilin Province, Hubei Province, Chongqing Municipality, Guangxi Province, Anhui Province, Beijing Municipality, Hebei Province and Shandong Province. Among them, The automobile output of Guangdong Province was 3.3846 million units, accounting for 12.76% of the national automobile production, ranking first in the country, Shanghai automobile production was 2.8332 million units, accounting for 10.68%, ranking second in the country; Jilin Province's automobile production was 2.4241 million units, accounting for 9.14%, ranking third. Together, Shanghai and Jilin account for nearly one-fifth of the country's output.
Shanghai, Changchun and other areas with serious epidemics have developed automobile industries, gathering SAIC, GM, Volkswagen, Tesla and many other leading car companies, these two regions alone account for more than 20% of the annual domestic automobile output, of which the output of new energy passenger cars in Shanghai accounts for nearly 1/6 of the country. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in March 2022, the production and sales of automobiles in mainland China reached 2.241 million units and 2.234 million units, down 9.1% and 11.7% year-on-year, respectively, and the overall production and sales of automobiles were poor. Among them, the output of SHANGHAI-based SAIC Motor Group in March fell by 15.92% year-on-year, and the output of FAW Jiefang in Jilin with production capacity layout in Jilin fell by 66.33% year-on-year in March, and the delayed delivery of orders in March will drag down the performance of SAIC Group and FAW Jiefang in the first half of the year. Throughout March, more than 20 car companies across the country were affected by the epidemic, and the overall output in March fell by 9.1% year-on-year.
FaW Group's Volkswagen, Toyota, Besturn, Hongqi and other brands of SAIC Group's Volkswagen, GM, Roewe, MG and other brands are almost all in a state of suspension. Located in Changchun, Shanghai Tesla, Zhiji, Gaohe, Nezha, Changan Ford, Jiangling Ford, Lincoln China, Kia Automobile, Weilai, WM, Xingtu Automobile, Dongfeng Peugeot and other production bases and R & D, marketing departments are almost all in static management, only a small number of departments in closed-loop management of a small number of production.
Supply chain obstruction The risk of supply interruption is gradually emerging
Entering April, WEILAI Automobile also said that its supply chain partners in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places have stopped production one after another, and have not yet resumed, and NIO vehicle production has been suspended. Li Bin, founder, chairman and CEO of Weilai, admitted that the rise in battery raw materials has brought pressure, "the epidemic is even more unbearable", "In fact, in mid-March, some parts of Weilai were cut off, relying on some parts inventory to barely support until the Qingming Dynasty."
On April 11, Bosch said in a statement that in order to comply with local epidemic prevention and control regulations, a factory that produces domestic hot water systems in Shanghai and an auto parts factory in Jilin Province have suspended production. At the same time, Bosch's auto parts plants in Shanghai and Taicang, Jiangsu Province, have adopted a closed-loop operating model to maintain production.
Great Wall Motor, after combining the results of the parts reserve assessment and rearranging, officially announced on April 14 that the tank 300 model was suspended from now on, and the news said that the reason for the suspension of the tank 300 was due to the discovery of the epidemic in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Jilin and other countries, and the tank 300 model involved a total of 8 supplier partners to stop work and stop operation.
In the case of spare parts still in stock, car companies can still guarantee production. In mid-April, the inventory of automobile manufacturers has almost been used up, and the supply chain supply has begun to gradually appear. According to the calculation of the Federation of Automobile Manufacturers, the epidemic in Shanghai and other places is expected to bring 20% of the production reduction loss to the automotive industry, and will have a greater impact on the supply of key parts in the automotive industry.
Local auto parts manufacturers in Jilin and Shanghai are limited in production, which in turn affects the production of downstream manufacturers in other provinces and cities. As an important town in the automobile industry, its production and operation damage will impact the national automobile supply chain system. Shanghai is home to the headquarters of more than half of the world's parts giants and some of their factories. Nine of the world's top 10 component groups have their Chinese headquarters in Shanghai, namely Bosch, ZF, Magna, Hyundai Mobis, Aisin, Continental, Valeo, Lear and Faurecia.
The automotive supply chain involves a total of eight major manufacturing systems and tens of thousands of parts, even if the length of this industrial chain and the difficulty of management are not mentioned, in terms of the automotive industry's strict product certification system, it is difficult for auto manufacturers to change suppliers in the short term. As an upstream and downstream enterprise in the automotive industry, even if it can be seen that some enterprises adopt closed-loop production preservation operations, they are still facing the problem of transportation of products and raw materials, which in turn affects the normal production of automobile industries in other places such as the Yangtze River Delta and central regions.
Multiple measures have been taken to ensure that it takes time for car companies to restore their production capacity
Compared with 2020, this year's epidemic has had a greater impact on the automotive industry and lasted longer, and even the Japanese factories of Japanese manufacturers such as Daihatsu, Mitsubishi, Honda, and Mazda have been affected. In order to open the "silt" in the automotive industry chain and supply chain as soon as possible, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has launched the "Automotive Industry Chain Supply Chain Smooth Coordination Platform", established a problem demand and feedback mechanism for the automotive industry chain supply chain enterprises, forwarded the problem to the relevant local departments in a timely manner at the first time, and established a guarantee mechanism for problem feedback and coordinated solution to promote rapid solution of the problem. At the same time, it will dynamically monitor and timely track the problem handling of key vehicles and parts enterprises.
Although more and more car companies and supply chain companies have gradually begun to resume work and resume production, after all, all enterprises cannot quickly achieve full staff and cannot quickly restore to pre-epidemic production capacity, so in the next one to two months, it is difficult for car companies to return to normal production and marketing, research and development and testing.
Although there are corresponding measures to support logistics, in the face of the epidemic, logistics to port routes and transportation routes still need to be re-planned, and even need to be planned many times, which is the reason why the logistics delivery time has been extended. Therefore, the market production and sales performance of car companies in April and May will still be greatly affected, and this May will also be the most difficult month for car companies.
The people evaluate the car
The sudden arrival of the epidemic is indeed an objective reason for the suspension of production by car companies and the interruption of supply in the supply chain, and it is also the best "reason" for car companies to be uneasy. Zi Yue: See the sages and think together, see the unwise and introspect within. In the past development process, some domestic car companies have "seen the wisdom and wisdom" of the Japanese lean production system and zero inventory management model, and have also benefited from it. However, in the face of the risks brought about by the epidemic, the ability to resist risks and the establishment of risk defense mechanisms have rarely achieved "introspection without being wise". That's why the epidemic has had such a big impact on the automotive industry in a short period of time, and after quickly digesting the few inventories, companies can only temporarily stop production. This time, the "difficult to reconcile" of car companies should make car companies and the auto supply chain industry begin to rearrange. Measures to resist risks and reduce losses should also become an inevitable move in the strategic planning, management and implementation of the supply chain of enterprises.