After the qingming festival, almost every new energy vehicle company's March and Q1 delivery data has been released, and from the results, there are still two that surprise us:
Xiaopeng: 15414 vehicles, once again to the top;
Nezha: 12026 vehicles, the biggest surprise;
Ideal: 11034 vehicles, play stable;
Zero run: 10,059 vehicles, the first time to break 10,000;
NIO: 9985 vehicles, the greatest potential;
Of course, for example, tesla, BYD, GAC Aeon, extreme krypton, Lantu data have also been updated, but Tesla only released Q1 global delivery and production data, while the domestic march efficiency has not yet been announced.
Overall, Tesla and BYD have an absolute advantage in the proportion of the new energy vehicle market, and there is a backlog of a large number of orders in their hands that have not yet been delivered, GAC Aean is not bad, the third position will not be impacted in the short term; under the epidemic and the wave of price increases, it is not easy for Nezha and Zero Run to hand over the results of breaking 10,000 in a single month, but with the official price increase of each product from April 1, whether it can continue the strong performance in March is still worthy of attention; if Weilai and Extreme Krypton are subject to factors such as production capacity, the overall performance is not up to expectations. Then Lantu is more after the price increase, the attractiveness has declined.
Then, from the overall delivery data of Q1 and the feedback of the terminal market, in the context of more new cars in Q2, whose sales trend will usher in a reversal, who may fall behind, the next content we will briefly analyze.
Each has its own strengths, and each of them is well
It is not difficult to see from the price and order data of the main models of each new force that almost every brand of products currently does not directly overlap with competitors in terms of positioning and price, except for Model Y and Nio ES6/EC6.
In other words, each company can achieve a significant increase in sales in the first quarter of this year, in addition to the general trend factors of the overall growth of the new energy market this year, it is more that the fungibility of each product at the same level and at the same price is still not high - Xiaopeng hits the high-end market with intelligence, ideally defines the "family car with a baby", Weilai uses high-end image and service to seize the mainstream luxury market, Nezha close to the people route to occupy the entry market, and zero-run cross-level cost performance to impress pragmatic users.
In addition, although Lantu FREE has quite a bright spot in the atmosphere creation and material part, it is a pity that most of the share of the same price point has been occupied by the ideal ONE, and the car-making thinking is biased towards traditional car companies, coupled with the emergence of the same large five-seat new energy models such as Mocha DHT-PHEV, it is difficult for Lantu FREE to stand out in the market of more than 300,000.
Extreme Kr 001 can be regarded as a special example, although there is a clear selling point in the design and driving control part, and there is no alternative product in the same price market, but the first batch of orders after delivery also exposed the unsatisfactory completion of the product, which greatly affected its word-of-mouth trend. Even if the current upward trend of orders for the Extreme Kr 001 terminal is still considerable, the delivery cycle of about 3 months and the current delivery volume of less than 2,000 vehicles per month also reflect that the Extreme Krypton brand is still some distance away from meeting Geely's expectations.
The variables and prospects behind sales
The price increase of electric vehicles should be the hottest topic in the new energy market in Q1 this year (mainly the decline of new energy subsidies and the increase in the price of battery raw materials), from our understanding of the terminal market, many car companies have received a batch of new orders before the official price adjustment on April 1. After the official price increase of the model, the impact of the ideal, Xiaopeng and zero running will most likely appear in May and June.
In contrast, Weilai official has not announced any price increases, but in the near future, it has also revealed a strategy to adjust the price of the triage time, but due to the existence of the battery rental model, as long as the price does not exceed 300,000 yuan, it can still enjoy a certain degree of state subsidies, which is still attractive to consumers.
In fact, although Weilai's sales in March still failed to break through 10,000, we are still very optimistic about Weilai ushering in a strong period after Q3 - from the perspective of orders, ET7 has exceeded expectations, and ET5, which really has tens of thousands of sales potential, will not announce the official price and can lock orders until the middle of the year, but now the booking Weilai has given more than 8,000 yuan of free gift configuration packages, and when it is officially opened in September, Weilai is bound to usher in a strong rebound, once the production capacity can keep up, The one who has the best chance of surpassing Xiaopeng's possibility should be Weilai.
Moreover, in the past two years, the number of Weilai replacement power stations has surged from 100 to about 700, and the after-sales service is more interesting (the attractiveness of the free power exchange service 4 times a month cannot be underestimated), once ET5, ET7, ES7 and other models can be delivered as planned, Weilai will really turn defense into attack.
On the other hand, the ideal side. Although ideal has just postponed the release date of the ideal L9 this month, and the price of the L9 may exceed 450,000 yuan, the growth momentum of the end market ideal ONE has gradually slowed down (the pick-up cycle has been shortened by 3 weeks), and it is expected that when the L9 starts a large number of deliveries in the second half of the year, it is expected that a large number of orders for the ideal ONE will be gradually "diluted" by the L9. Obviously, in the Q2 quarter that has arrived, the ideal only with the 2021 ideal ONE has been difficult to have too much increment, compared with Weilai and Xiaopeng, basically in the defensive stage.
The next focus of Xiaopeng is to open the delivery of G9 and modified P7 until Q3, but as far as the current P7 is stable and about 8,000 units of output and high order activity in P7, Q2 is still a large probability that Xiaopeng will lead the sales of new forces brand. It is worth noting that from the currently released configuration information to predict, G9 will be a large five-seater model priced in the range of 300,000-400,000 yuan, and it is likely to compete directly with Weilai and Tesla in the future, and may bring 30,000-40,000 growth space to Xiaopeng after delivery this year.
As for Nezha and Zero Run, the latter C11 model may be more affected by the price increase (2-30,000 yuan), after all, the original zero run C11 is the main price-performance selling point of the cross-level, and now the entry price has come to nearly 180,000 yuan, and the secondary top and top models have also stepped into more than 200,000 segments. Nezha is actively expanding its overseas business, in March has established Nezha Automobile Thai subsidiary, the next is also expected to enter the European market, while Nezha V although the price also increased by 8000-10000 yuan, but the overall price is still relatively close to the people.
Of course, the biggest variable in the new energy vehicle market is still the supply of parts and the epidemic problem, especially the current shortage of automotive chips in the industry is expected to continue until the end of the year, which is unfavorable to several car companies that are holding back new car tricks. In addition, the epidemic situation in Shanghai is still severe, and the new forces will most likely lose the delivery volume of Shanghai and the areas affected by the epidemic, fortunately, most of the new power brands have not stopped work because of the epidemic, and orders in the epidemic area are also expected to be transferred to other regions.
Ah Chuan said car
Due to factors such as the epidemic and the delivery time of new models, we do not expect that the overall pattern of the new forces in Q2 will change much, coupled with the possibility of postponing the Beijing Auto Show, the new car activities that will have a large outbreak in April may be fully postponed, and the real drama will not start until Q3.
For the entire Q2, aside from the new car plan that has been put on the agenda, how to solve the supply chain problem may be the key to affecting the sales target of 10/200,000 vehicles in 2022 for the new power brands. With the new forces of the top three have new cars listed this year, the overlap between the positioning and price of new products has been inevitable, how to make the product line without internal friction, with better products for healthy competition will be our next focus.