01
introduction
The sales dispute between the new forces has a long history.
If the competition of 10,000 or 20,000 vehicles sold annually in the initial stage cannot reflect the competitive pattern, then in the market of monthly sales of more than 10,000 vehicles, there is already some initial taste of the overall situation. For friends who have not paid attention to the new energy industry for some time, it is estimated that they will be surprised by the development of new cars in the domestic market, and if they see that the first sales volume is Xiaopeng, this surprise is believed to be magnified again.
But what makes the market change like this is never luck.
02
Sales analysis
For Xiaopeng, the past March is undoubtedly a very rewarding month.
On March 23, the 100,000th Xiaopeng P7 officially rolled off the production line at the Zhaoqing plant, becoming the first pure electric new power model to exceed 100,000 production.
On April 1, Xiaopeng announced that it delivered 15,414 vehicles in March, winning the top three sales titles of the top three new forces for the fourth time in half a year, and delivering more than 10,000 vehicles per month for five times.
Throughout the first quarter of 2022, Xiaopeng delivered 34,561 vehicles, taking the top spot; ideal delivery of 31,716 vehicles, ranking second; NIO delivered 25,768 vehicles, ranking third.
Let's pull the timeline back a bit further, back to early 2020 on the eve of the delivery of the P7. It was a difficult time for the new forces at that time. Under the decline of subsidy policies, the sales of new energy vehicles fell for nine consecutive years from July 2019 to March 2020, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the first quarter of 2020 fell by more than 50% year-on-year.
Within the new forces, Weilai leads by first-mover advantage, and the ideal newborn calf raids. At that time, Xiao Peng urgently needed to break the situation.
In the 7 quarters from 2020Q1 to 2021Q3, all three new forces maintained rapid quarterly growth at the same time. 2020Q3 Xiaopeng began to gradually catch up with the ideal, but there was still a gap of 3,628 vehicles with the big brother Weilai, which was more than 42% behind xiaopeng's 8,578 vehicles in the quarter.
By the time of 2021Q3, the three brothers had become equal, quarterly sales had reached around 25,000, and Xiaopeng had quietly become the leading big brother. Next is the surge in sales of Xiaopeng Ideal in 2021Q4 and 2022Q1, and the in-place of Weilai.
This plot is even a bit inspirational. What made Xiaopeng achieve a sales counterattack?
Breaking down the sales figures into models seems to be able to get the answer. From 2020Q1 to 2021Q3, the sales of the G3 series have not changed dramatically, and the G3 is not the main reason for the sales counterattack.
In the first quarter of the P7's fight, model sales reached 6,210 units, and brand sales soared by 166% month-on-month, catching up with the ideal. Since then, P7 sales have continued to climb, with more than 9,000 units delivered in a single month by March 2022. At the same time, the new comrade-in-arms P5 also opened up a new growth point for Xiaopeng, delivering 7,621 units in the first full quarter and exceeding 10,486 units in the second quarter.
It can be found that every time a new model is added, Xiaopeng's sales have reached a new level. As of 2022Q1, the sales pattern within the Xiaopeng car series has become 19,427 units of P7, 10,486 units of P5, and 4,648 units of G3.
For Xiaopeng, the more expensive the car, the more it sells.
Xiaopeng is the cheapest of the three new forces, and people think that Xiaopeng wins at a low price. However, within Xiaopeng's product system, sales volume is positively correlated with price, and the more expensive it is, the better it is, which is by no means a simple low-price strategy. Only by exploring the reasons for this counterintuitive phenomenon can we truly answer the secret of Xiaopeng's sales growth.
03
The hard work that was once cultivated has been harvested
Now, Xiaopeng's technology label is deep enough, just like Weilai emphasizes service, and the ideal emphasizes products as deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. But the attributes of technology are inherently less measurable than services and products. How many people have ever thought that the "technology" that Xiaopeng is talking about is just a "gimmick"?
I have to admit that I, a traditional automotive engineer and like to drive, used to be a person who scorned this so-called technology. A car is a car, what is assisted parking, intelligent driving and large-screen car machine, is it so important?
Importantly, history is created by the masses of the people, and the preferences of the masses are the real preferences.
Avid car fans love manual transmission, but this can't stop automatic transmission from becoming the mainstream of the market. Although the former automatic transmission has defects of one kind or another, the convenient experience and fool-like operation are what mass consumers really need, which is the direction of the progress of the times, which is inevitable.
The ultimate goal of smart technology on smart electric vehicles is to free hands and liberate drivers, which is the inevitable trend of the times, whether you like it or not.
Smart, electric, automotive, Xiaopeng has bet on intelligence from the beginning.
Imagine that around 2015, when Xiaopeng Automobile was founded, the wave of electrification had just been set off, the new forces had just been established, and the best pure electric vehicle sold in China was the BAIC E150EV with a 100-kilometer acceleration of 25 s, and it was firmly choosing the scientific and technological route, and how keen insight and boldness were needed.
At the end of 2018, Xiaopeng's first mass production car, the G3, was officially launched. At the press conference, He Xiaopeng specifically said the word "smart" how many times it is impossible to count, but it is certain that intelligence is the word with the highest frequency of the whole release. The big screen that announced the price also had the slogan "Xiaopeng G3, my first smart car".
At that time, the performance of G3's intelligence in terms of voice assistants, assisted driving and car engine systems has been eye-catching.
At that time, voice assistants were no longer new, and the Roewe RX5, which was listed in 2016 as an "Internet SUV", had long been able to achieve voice interaction and open the skylight to see the stars. But the natural dialogue of all-scene voice on the G3 not only realizes almost all vehicle function control, but also exceeds the feedback speed of smart phones. In the face of this new intelligent interaction experience, the once-command car voice interaction looks like a product of the last century.
At that time, the automatic parking function of mass production cars was basically chicken ribs, including ultra-luxury cars such as Mercedes-Benz S. Xiaopeng took automatic parking as a mandatory question to do, and achieved the top level of the industry as soon as he appeared. 12 ultrasonic radars, 3 millimeter wave radars, 8 cameras, the first wireframe recognition and ground information perception function, through voice control can easily complete the parking. As long as the space on both sides is not less than 40 cm, it is easy to park, and even untreated parking spaces, irregular parking spaces, inclined parking spaces, etc. can be easily handled.
But the opportunity to really make Xiaopeng intelligent out of the circle is the official push of NGP.
After many iterative updates of XPILOT, NGP was finally realized in January 2021, making the Xiaopeng P7 one of the most technologically intelligent vehicles and firmly labeling the Xiaopeng brand.
In the 3,675-kilometer P7 NGP fleet expedition from Guangzhou to Shanghai organized by Xiaopeng in March 2021, the new version of NGP in the internal test achieved an average of 0.71 takeovers per 100 kilometers, a lane change overtaking success rate of 94.41%, a ramp passing success rate of 92.76%, and a tunnel passing success rate of 94.95%, all four data surpassing Tesla NoA.
In the current mass production state, Xiaopeng NGP's performance is generally considered to be the best in the industry. At last year's 1024 Xiaopeng Technology Day, Xiaopeng showed the form of the city NGP and XPILOT 4.0, although it is still a demo, but it is also a real demonstration of the actual product effect.
Judging from the time of deciding to self-research, Xiaopeng is about 2 years earlier than the ideal Weilai. Weilai only began to cut to the full stack self-research from NT2.0, and the ideal is that L9 is the true full stack self-research. The accumulation of algorithms in these 2 years, especially in visual perception algorithms, should not be underestimated.
At the 2021 earnings call a week ago, He Xiaopeng said that the research and development of XPILOT 3.5 NGP in the city mainly applied on P5 is progressing smoothly and is rapidly iterating, and it is expected to complete development in the second quarter. It is planned to officially launch XPILOT 4.0 in 2023 to achieve intelligent driving at high speed and in all urban scenarios, and at least 4 models will support XPILOT 4.0 in 2023, and the expected selection rate will exceed 50%.
Step by step, technology in Xiaopeng, completed the difficult turn from gimmick to practical. Those traditional manufacturers who have "not looked" and "can't understand" intelligence have fallen into the stage of "can't keep up" in just a few years.
What promotes the turnaround is Xiaopeng's firm belief in intelligence and continuous investment in independent research and development. The team's R&D personnel has been growing rapidly, reaching a scale of 1,000 people in 2020 and exceeding 4,000 in Q3 in 2021. R&D investment in 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 was RMB1.05 billion, RMB2.07 billion, RMB1.73 billion and RMB4.11 billion, respectively.
Vigorously produce miracles, real money and silver out of technology.
04
The good days are yet to come
Therefore, the more expensive cars Xiaopeng sells, is it because of the more "technology" sense?
Yes and no.
Yes, it is because the data is in front of us, the sales of smarter P5 and P7 are greater than G3, and consumers with rich budgets are more willing to pay for technology experiences. From the perspective of the insurance volume data of Xiaopeng G3, the cheapest lithium iron phosphate version of the model is the cheapest, and it is also the relatively most "untechnical" car in the Xiaopeng system. In the price sensitive range of more than 100,000, consumers may not want to bear the premium of technology.
It is not because the "old car G3" has not reached Xiaopeng's ideal product strength and has not impressed more consumers. Limited by the capital and technical capabilities in the early stage of entrepreneurship, Xiaopeng had to make too many compromises on the G3, and had regrets in the vehicle platform and electronic and electrical architecture. It's not just that there is less technology, but that the comprehensive product strength is not strong enough.
We can see G3 as Xiaopeng's 1.0 era, intelligence is the focus of publicity, but limited to price, electrical and electronic architecture, as well as the capital, technical level and other reasons at that time, it did not do a very good job; 2.0 era P7 debuted, immediately achieved sales revitalization. The launch of NGP has deeply strengthened the brand's scientific and technological attributes, and the P5 dual lidar has been put on the car, and the cross-floor memory parking has set off a wave of intelligent heat.
The upcoming G9 is the 3.0 era of Xiaopeng. Under the guarantee of sufficient cash flow and strong R&D team, G9 has moved out the technical strength that has been cultivating for many years.
The new intelligent driving platform, more than 500 TOPS computing power and 8 million pixel binocular camera, coupled with improved lidar, XPILOT 4.0 aims to open the prelude to all-scenario intelligent assisted driving; X-EEA 3.0 has entered the central centralized electronic and electrical architecture, using a high-fusion hardware architecture of central supercomputing (C-DCU) + area control (Z-DCU), vehicle communication and software experience fully upgraded; 800 V SiC platform has also been on the string, peak 4 C Large charging rate for 5 minutes of charging and range of more than 200 km.
Imagine what kind of product power will be shown when these advanced configurations are gradually delegated to Xiaopeng's low-cost models with technological progress and cost reduction, and the closed loop of the combat effectiveness of the product system is realized. After all, the law of the market is that the cheaper the model, the better it sells, and the sales distribution of Xiaopeng will inevitably be a pyramid structure under the more or less, and the sales of low-priced models may be just around the corner.
This has begun to appear on the P5, with the intelligent experience beyond the P7 and the lower price range, this year will most likely surpass the P7 and become the top pillar of sales expansion. Even in the current electric vehicle price increase to dissuade some consumers under the background of the industry, the real good car is not worried about sales.
Considering that the first quarter was affected by the Spring Festival and the delivery of the G9 may begin in the third quarter, Xiaopeng's champion sales in the first quarter are most likely the quarter with the least sales volume in the four quarters of this year.
That is to say, Xiaopeng's sales have increased, and the good days are still to come.
05
summary
From an unfavorable start to a phased sales champion, this may be the best compliment for Xiaopeng as a staunch supporter and popularization pioneer of intelligence.
We have opened up the pattern a bit and observed the development trajectory of China's new forces, including Xiaopeng, all of which have a difficult process similar to constantly carrying heavy loads and breaking through the cocoon. Looking at the strong momentum of the current head products of the new forces, it is difficult to imagine that seven or eight years ago, at the beginning of their establishment, domestic cars could only survive in the cracks of the joint venture brand.
With the passage of time, domestic electric vehicles have become the representative of the new wave, and can even be said to be a business card of China's advanced manufacturing. The doubts and sneers that were once there will eventually disappear in the improvement of product strength.
The potential of smart electric vehicles has just been revealed, and the good days of China's new forces are still to come.
Written by: Pigeon No. 42
Edit: Reinhardt
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