After receiving 12.8 billion yuan of credit facilities from five banks, dual major listings and raising HK$14 billion, Xiaopeng's cash reserves (cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term deposits, short-term investments and long-term deposits) as of December 31, 2021 reached $43,543.9 million, down $1,804 million from the previous quarter and $8,201.8 million from a year ago.
In addition to one subtraction and one increase, it is the anxiety of supply chain problems to be solved and the hope of innovation on the eve of the diffusion.
What happened to the supply chain?
In the past 2021, Xiaopeng Automobile topped the new car-making force with 98,155 vehicles; but the february sales led by a 51.83% month-on-month decline, the largest of the three new forces, and the two price adjustments during the year allowed analysts to point the spearhead at the earnings meeting "What happened to the supply chain?" ”
He Xiaopeng, who has always been "I don't want to tell the truth, and I don't want to tell the truth", repeatedly emphasized that "on the whole, it will be better than imagined" in response. And in which aspects of the specific "good" are scattered among the fragments of the answer.
From the perspective of results-oriented order quantity and sales expectations, He Xiaopeng revealed that in late February and early March, the number of orders has quickly recovered to the best level of the peak season in December last year; and the sales guidance for the first quarter of this year gives 33500-34000 vehicles - second only to the peak sales in the fourth quarter of last year, which means that in the upcoming March, Xiaopeng's expected delivery volume will reach 14353-14853 vehicles, which is also close to last year's peak level.
In terms of models, it also sets targets for the two major sales pillars this year - P7 is expected to hit the target of sales of more than 10,000 in March; after the improvement of supply chain and the launch of urban NGP, P5 sales will further climb, even approaching the sales level of P7 in the second half of the year.
For the battery problem that directly caused the latest round of electric vehicle price increases, He Xiaopeng responded in an earlier interview: battery price increases have little impact on sales, and it is expected that in the second or third quarter of next year, the battery supply situation will be alleviated to a relatively large extent.
In the latest financial report meeting, He Xiaopeng also gave a timetable for the easing of raw material supply of "fast is one quarter, slow is three quarters".
There have also been new developments in the construction of the factory, one of the largest spenders last year - the Zhaoqing plant was upgraded during the Spring Festival; the Guangzhou plant was completed and equipment is currently being installed, which is expected to be officially put into operation in the third quarter of this year; and the Wuhan plant under construction is expected to be larger.
The production capacity of Guangzhou and Wuhan factories is only used to quench the thirst of Wangmei for the time being, and the real direct service terminal delivery is still only the Zhaoqing factory. He Xiaopeng said that between production capacity and output, they are more concerned about the "logic of output", that is, they hope to greatly increase production through the "overtime system" (double-shift or even three-shift system in the usual sense), so that a small number of factories can achieve more than 500,000 vehicles in a short period of time.
Rush to 25% gross margin!
In addition to the tension between supply and delivery, the expansion of losses is still a problem to be solved by Xiaopeng and even the entire new car-making force group.
In 2021, Xiaopeng's net loss expanded by 78% year-on-year to 4.863 billion yuan, surpassing Weilai and becoming the most loss-making of the three "Wei Xiaoli".
Compared with Weilai and Ideal, Xiaopeng's three major expenditures (research and development expenses, sales costs, general and sales administrative expenses) have not emerged in absolute terms; but the proportion of revenue accounted for by various expenditures ranks first among the three.
Last year, Xiaopeng, who sold the most cars in the new forces but did not make the most money, had a gap in revenue compared with the other two, resulting in more losses when its absolute expenditure was not greater. The crux behind this is the current lack of cost control ability of Xiaopeng and the relatively low gross profit of the product portfolio.
He Xiaopeng, who is at the helm, has obviously seen this.
In 2021, Xiaopeng's overall gross profit margin is 12.5%, but from the perspective of He Xiaopeng's clear medium- and long-term goals, this figure should be 25%.
To complete the leap between the two numbers, He Xiaopeng first released two new platforms - for the B-class car and C-class car markets, respectively, through the large-scale, highly integrated design of the new platform, and more advanced manufacturing processes, such as super-large integrated die casting, "to help us obtain a very strong cost control capability." ”
Consciously or unconsciously, Xiaopeng is currently the most similar to Tesla among Chinese car companies.
Two models based on the two new platforms will be unveiled in 2023, but the upgrade and change of the cost control system will be reflected in the upcoming G9.
He Xiaopeng's original words are roughly that in the future, we will still adhere to the software full-stack self-research, and the hardware will apply platform technology to the intelligent system and the power system, and promote the huge change of the power system manufacturing process and the BOM cost system through the system platform; through upgrades and changes, the gross profit margin of the new model (including the G9) and the overall gross profit margin of the company will have structural changes.
In addition, in the pursuit of higher gross profit margins, the sacrifice of G3 is almost an inevitable fact.
He Xiaopeng said in an interview earlier: "This year, we will gradually put the main production capacity on models with higher gross profits. Although the premise of this decision is that the supply of raw materials is tight, in a conference call minutes that flowed out earlier, Xiaopeng insiders' statements are more like the main reasons for the marginalization of G3: "The price is low, the store is low, the product strength and profit point are low, and it is not the main model." ”
After the initial realization of "scale", these new forces of the head seem to have invariably entered the short board Laqi link - Weilai, ideal supplement research and development and technology investment, and Xiaopeng systematically supplemented cost control.
The Diffusion of Innovation: Urban NGP vs. XPilot 4.0
After the deployment of the short board, the long board on which Xiaopeng depends for survival will also be further enhanced.
Among the P7 and P5 delivered in the fourth quarter of last year, the penetration rate of XPilot 3.0 of Xiaopeng Motors' intelligent driver assistance system was close to 20%, while of the P5 delivered in the fourth quarter, more than 50% could support XPilot 3.0 or XPilot 3.5.
XPilot 3.5 and its urban NGP features, which are the biggest selling points for the P5 listing, will complete the technology development in the second quarter of this year. After obtaining the approval of the city's high-precision map, it will be gradually pushed to the users of the approved cities in each city through OTA in batches.
For the XPilot 3.5 and urban NGP functions that have not yet been on the car, He Xiaopeng has opened the exaggeration mode - "On the P5 test vehicle, the number of urban NGP takeovers of 100 kilometers has been close to that of high-speed NGP" "The ability of urban NGP has approached the level of domestic head Robotaxi, and even partially achieved catch-up."
When the P5 was listed, the consensus view in the industry was that Xiaopeng was trying to verify the premium capability of its intelligent technology in the hinterland of the family car. Supply chain conundrums and the fact that the city's NGP capabilities have not yet been demonstrated make it unfair to talk about verification results at this point in time.
However, another level of judgment that can be discussed is that a single cool function is not enough to support the overall "intelligent premium capability". He Xiaopeng himself said that until XPilot 4.0, the penetration rate can reach more than 50%.
Keen to explore the boundaries of the future of mobility, it doesn't look like the day will come too late – XPilot 4.0 will be officially launched in 2023, including new and old car remodels, and there will be four models to support the system. At that time, XPilot 4.0, which has a "significant technical generation difference", will bring "universal high-end intelligent assisted driving" to impact higher penetration rates with "more comprehensive use scenarios, wider geographical coverage and better driving experience", thus truly completing the test of the premium ability of systematic intelligent technology.
Write at the end
In Xiaopeng's 2021 semi-annual report analysis, I quoted the classic line from "Blue Gate" at the beginning:
Summer was about to pass and we didn't seem to be doing anything. Yeah, just run around and do nothing. Then there will always be something left behind, what is left behind, and we will become what kind of adults.
After returning to Hong Kong to list, tens of billions of financing, P5 pre-sale, capacity expansion in the summer, Xiaopeng in a happy and sad financial report, leaving the hope of becoming a "big man" of China's intelligent electric vehicles.
Half a year has passed, Xiaopeng has more sorrows in its financial report, and more hopes for becoming a future transportation explorer.