In the future, the fuel vehicle market will gradually decrease, and the new energy market will grow steadily, eventually replacing fuel vehicles, but this goal will take decades or even decades to complete.
Source | Automotive industry concerns
Source/Official Account
On April 3, BYD Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "BYD") released its latest sales report on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
According to the data, BYD's automobile sales in March 2022 were 104,878 units, an increase of 156.9% from 40,817 units in the same period of 2021, of which the sales of new energy passenger cars were 104,338 units, an increase of 345.2% from 23,386 units in the same period of 2021, and the sales of fuel vehicles including cars, SUVs and MPVs were 0 units.
In the announcement, BYD announced that according to the company's strategic development needs, the company will stop the production of fuel vehicles from March 2022. In the future, in the automotive segment, the company will focus on pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.
At the same time, the company will continue to produce and supply fuel vehicle parts, continue to provide perfect service and after-sales guarantee for existing fuel vehicle customers, as well as the supply of spare parts throughout the life cycle to ensure worry-free travel.
At the same time, BYD officially issued a description of the discontinued fuel vehicle, which is basically the same as the Hong Kong stock document.
In fact, BYD's announcement of withdrawal from the fuel vehicle market is still expected. As early as June 2021, there was a bydder internal exchange meeting minutes circulating in the market, in which the meeting minutes were: "In the future, the company's fuel vehicles will not all be completely replaced and discontinued by DMI and DMP", and BYD replied, "The internal sales of fuel vehicles this year are expected to be about 150,000 vehicles, and the planning of future fuel vehicles has also stopped, and the fastest next year will be fully replaced (as long as the monthly production capacity of DMI reaches 80,000 units, and the monthly shipment is 40,000 vehicles).
However, in response to the above-mentioned meeting minutes, BYD responded at that time, "There is no such plan at present, and there is a demand in the market and consumers, and there is a demand from partner dealers." ”
If you follow the content of the meeting minutes transmitted online, BYD has actually reached the level of new energy vehicles replacing fuel vehicles.
Since the second half of 2021, BYD's new energy vehicle sales began to grow steadily, and the share of fuel vehicles is gradually decreasing, more or less can be seen that BYD is promoting new energy vehicles to replace fuel vehicles, and from the product point of view, since BYD's new push of Qin PLUS DM-i, Song PLUS DM-i, Tang DM-i and other DM-i super hybrid models are widely sought after by the market, due to limited production capacity, the market continues to be in short supply. BYD supplies limited chips and parts to hot-selling new energy vehicle products, so it seems inevitable that the production of fuel vehicles will be stopped.
Previously, the automotive industry has paid attention to many reports, that is, BYD does not announce the suspension of fuel vehicles in the short term, and BYD will not launch a new fuel vehicle in the future, because it takes at least three years for a new model to be introduced to the market, and the current development direction of the automobile market is very clear, and basically no car companies will choose to develop new fuel vehicles at this time.
At present, there have been a number of car companies announced the timetable for the suspension of the sale of fuel vehicles, that is, some car companies have not yet announced, but under the trend of globalization, the transformation of fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles is an inevitable trend, and the hybrid secondary selection is a transitional product between the two.
In November 2021, at the COP26 climate change conference in Glasgow, Scotland, automakers, countries and even cities were asked to commit to phase out fossil fuel-powered vehicles by 2040, and automakers who signed the agreement included BYD.
According to the statement, six car companies, including Volvo, Ford, General Motors, Mercedes-Benz, BYD and Jaguar Land Rover, signed a pledge at the climate conference in Glasgow to achieve zero emissions in all new cars and vans worldwide by 2040 and zero emissions in major markets by 2035. Of course, what I didn't expect was that BYD came so quickly this day, which may be the car companies that announced the official suspension of fuel vehicles in the Chinese market and even the global market price.
Taking the March data as an example, BYD's vehicle production was 106,658 units, up 173.4% from 39,007 units in the same period in 2021, and sales were 104,878 units, up 156.9% from 40,817 units in the same period in 2021.
From the data point of view, BYD production and sales are basically the same, there will be no production more than sales and less sales, and the current by-device capacity supply is seriously insufficient, a few days ago related reports pointed out that the current BYD cumulative undelivered orders reached 400,000 vehicles, and is still increasing month by month. At the same time, it was learned from a number of complaint platforms that including Qin PLUS DM-i, Dolphin and other models have user complaints that they cannot mention the car, and how to ensure production has become a top priority for BYD.
In March's production and sales data, BYD's new energy vehicle sales were 104,878 units, up 333.1% from 24,218 units in the same period of 2021, of which new energy passenger car sales were 104,338 units, an increase of 345.2% from 23,386 units in the same period in 2021. Since BYD stopped production of fuel vehicles in March, the sales volume of fuel vehicles including cars, SUVs and MPVs were 0. That is to say, whether BYD's sales growth can only rely on new energy vehicles in the future, for BYD, fuel vehicles have become a thing of the past.
According to the data, BYD was founded in 1995, listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2002 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2011. BYD first started with the battery business, and in 2003, it acquired Qinchuan Automobile and officially entered the automotive industry, launching its first model, F3, in 2005. Before 2010, with the development of China's automotive industry, BYD's automobile sales also rose, and the automobile business ushered in a high-light moment of development. After 2010, BYD began to enter the bottleneck, and it was not until 2021 that it exceeded its 2010 sales for the first time.
According to the financial report, in 2021, BYD Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "BYD") achieved operating income of 216.142 billion yuan, an increase of 38.02% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 3.045 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.08%; deduction of non-net profit of 1.255 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.53%.
BYD is a company with a very complex business composition, with three major business segments: automotive business, mobile phone components and assembly business, secondary rechargeable batteries and photovoltaic business, accounting for about 52%, 40% and 8% of the company's total revenue in 2021. According to the financial report, BYD's total revenue in 2021 was 216.142 billion yuan, of which the revenue of automobiles, automobile-related products and other products business was 112.489 billion yuan, the revenue of mobile phone parts, assembly and other products business was 86.454 billion yuan, and the revenue of rechargeable battery and photovoltaic business was 16.471 billion yuan.
It is not difficult to see that the automobile business is an important source of BYD's revenue, and the revenue growth is mainly due to the growth of new energy vehicle sales. According to the data, BYD's automobile sales in 2021 were 740,100 units, an increase of 73.34% year-on-year, of which the sales of new energy passenger cars were 593,700 units, an increase of 231.60% year-on-year.
For the 2022 sales target, BYD Automobile has previously finalized that it will achieve a sales target of 1.2 million vehicles this year, and if the supply chain is good, BYD will hit the annual sales target of 2 million vehicles. According to the latest data, the cumulative sales volume of BYD vehicles in the first quarter of 2022 was 291,378 units, and the annual target completion rate of 1.2 million units was 24.3%, and if BYD can ensure the supply of production capacity in the remaining three quarters, the sales target of 1.2 million vehicles should not be a problem. Of course, this burden will also be borne by new energy vehicles.
Of course, the current fuel vehicles are still the dominant market, and new energy vehicles only account for about 15% of the total market share. However, the transition process of fuel vehicles to pure electric vehicles will not change, and hybrid models are transitional products for the transformation of fuel vehicles to pure electric vehicles, taking into account both fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles. In the future, the fuel vehicle market will gradually decrease, and the new energy market will grow steadily, eventually replacing fuel vehicles, but this goal will take decades or even decades to complete.
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